Fifty golfers have made the 284-mile trek from Memphis to St. Louis to compete in this week’s BMW Championship.
The host course, Bellerive Country Club, was designed by Robert Trent Jones and is known to be a bit of a brute.
As a result, it even has its own nickname: The Green Monster of Ladue.
Bellerive has hosted three major championships—the 1965 U.S. Open, where Gary Player completed the career Grand Slam; the 1992 PGA Championship, won by Nick Price; and the 2018 PGA Championship.
2018 was the last time golf fans saw this course, and it was a doozy.
If you recall, that PGA Championship was won by some guy named Brooks Koepka, while some other guy named Tiger Woods tried to chase him down with a 64 on Sunday.
Koepka answered with a 66 and took home the hardware.
Neither of them is in the field this week, eight years later, but man, Tiger’s highlights from that final round are still fun to watch.
Brooks won with a score of 16-under that year.
This week, the books are projecting the winning score to land around 262, which would be 18-under since Bellerive will play as a par 70 for these guys—and a par 72 for the rest of us.
Moving from the past to the present, the top 30 in the FedExCup standings after this week will advance to the TOUR Championship at East Lake.
Read: The Minimum Finish Required for Each Player to Earn a Spot in the TOUR Championship
Key Stats for the BMW Championship
Based on 2018 PGA Championship data*
- Prioritize bombers. Bellerive strongly favored longer hitters in 2018, making driving distance and power a much more important filter than accuracy off the tee.
- Approach play was the biggest separator. Strokes Gained: Approach accounted for 41.7% of scoring variance, well above the TOUR average of 34.9%. Look for players combining length with elite iron play.
- Don’t over-weight putting or short game. Putting and around-the-green play accounted for less scoring variance than normal. With a 1.05 skill slope, better players also held a modest advantage—pointing toward big-name, high-end ball strikers rather than short-game specialists or pure longshots.
The Details
Previous Winners
How to Watch
Featured Groups
ESPN+ has featured-group coverage of the BMW Championship.
→ View all featured groups and tee times here
Weekly Bets: BMW Championship
We’ve partnered with Keith Stewart at Read The Line to share his weekly golf betting picks with the Caddyshanks crew.
If you’re the type who enjoys breaking down matchups, spotting trends, and hunting for value, you’ll feel right at home in the RTL community.
Use code CADDYSHANKS2026 for 20% off.
Keith Stewart’s Picks
Viktor Hovland (+3000, FanDuel)
If anyone can compete with Scottie Scheffler on approach, it is Viktor Hovland.
A proven winner at the BMW Championship in 2023 on a course that draws strong comparisons to Olympia Fields, I’m backing an aggressive player who fell out of contention in Memphis because the driver went awry.
Bellerive gives him a little more room off the tee, and I love the bounce-back potential for the 2023 FedExCup champion.
Hovland ranks fifth in the field on approach over the last few events and fourth in Birdies or Better Percentage.
Firepower, elite iron play, and the overall trend—I’m all in.
Wyndham Clark (+3300, DraftKings)
There’s a ton of talk surrounding Jake Knapp this week.
I’ll take the shorter odds and, in my opinion, a better chance at winning with Wyndham Clark.
Why?
Very few players have beaten the world No. 1 head-to-head this year, and Clark did it at the CJ Cup.
I also like TPC Craig Ranch as a comparison course—albeit with less scoring at Bellerive—and Clark’s approach play this season separates him from many of the other driver-and-putter-heavy players.
Coming off a fifth-place finish at the St. Jude, if scoring and power are what we need this week, Wyndham can win.
Caddyshanks Picks
Hideki Matsuyama (+3000, DraftKings)
I have a friend who reads this newsletter every week just for the picks, and he constantly makes fun of me for how often I pick Hideki.
I don’t care one bit.
He has four top-10 finishes in his last four starts.
That is the definition of knocking on the door.
Si Woo Kim (+2700, DraftKings)
Si Woo has played so well all season but hasn’t been able to cash in.
Besides Scottie, Si Woo has the most top-10 finishes this season.
Can he—or Hideki—finally get one across the finish line?
Scottie Scheffler (+350, DraftKings)
Wouldn’t you know it?
Last week was the first week I didn’t write about the “Bet Scottie Every Week” strategy—which has not exactly been a profitable endeavor—and then he goes out and wins.
He’ll probably go back-to-back now.
Some new things, some old.
Detroit Golf Club is one of the old things.
The club was founded in 1899, and Donald Ross completed his two course designs in 1916—which is also the year roughly 85% of Congress was born, funny enough.
Last year, that old course underwent a renovation, with two notable changes:
- They changed the par from 72 to 70 by converting holes 7 and 17 from par 5s into long par 4s.
- They restored Ross’s original greens, which should hopefully challenge the players’ short games a bit more.
The Rocket Mortgage Classic itself is relatively new, as far as tournaments go, but Rocket Mortgage has announced that it will be ending its sponsorship after eight years.
That’s understandable, considering this tournament has largely been a dud due to weak fields, unknown winners, and soft scoring conditions.
But, funny enough, there’s another new wrinkle this year.
For whatever reason, 21 of the top 50 players decided to play this week, giving the newly renovated course its strongest field in tournament history.
Finally, the old stats might not matter, but here’s how Detroit Golf Club played last year, when the winning score was 22-under.
Key Stats for the Rocket Mortgage Classic
- Expect another birdie fest. Detroit Golf Club averaged 2.32 strokes under par per round, so prioritize elite birdie-makers and players who consistently gain strokes on easy courses.
- Lean toward distance over driving accuracy. The course favored bombers in 2025, suggesting longer hitters can attack the par 5s and leave themselves shorter approaches without being heavily punished off the tee.
- Approach play and putting should drive your card. Those two categories accounted for roughly 74% of the scoring variance, while the course produced less separation by overall skill than a typical TOUR stop. That makes hot iron players, strong putters, and longer-priced contenders more appealing.
The Details
Previous Winners
How to Watch
Featured Groups
PGA TOUR Studios is piloting an announcer-free stream for this week’s Rocket Classic. The stream will debut Thursday on PGA TOUR LIVE on ESPN+ and cover all four rounds.
Weekly Bets: Rocket Mortgage Classic
We’ve partnered with Keith Stewart at Read The Line to share his weekly golf betting picks with the Caddyshanks crew.
If you’re the type who enjoys breaking down matchups, spotting trends, and hunting for value, you’ll feel right at home in the RTL community.
Use code CADDYSHANKS2026 for 20% off.
Keith Stewart’s Picks
Si Woo Kim (+2200, FanDuel)
At some point, Si Woo Kim will be rewarded for all his exceptional play.
Coming off back-to-back top 10s across the Atlantic, Kim has gained strokes on the field tee to green in 18 of 20 starts—and in each of his last seven.
He ranks first in the field on approach over the last 20 rounds and sixth in birdies or better percentage, so Si Woo will score. The new greens should only increase his advantage.
His proximity to the hole from both short and long range is exemplary, and his around-the-green acumen helps him save shots when necessary.
With four top 10s in his last six starts, this shootout has Si Woo written all over it.
Davis Thompson (+6100, DraftKings)
Fresh off a T7 at the 3M Open, Davis Thompson fits the mold of a strong Rocket Classic contender.
Thompson gained 11 strokes on the field tee to green in Minnesota. A past champion at the John Deere Classic, Davis has already proven that he can win a regular-season event.
Generally a below-average putter on TOUR, Thompson has gained strokes on the greens throughout his starts at Detroit Golf Club.
In four appearances, Davis has gained an average of five total strokes on the field and finished runner-up here in 2024.
Caddyshanks Picks
Hideki Matsuyama (+3300, DraftKings)
Accuracy with the driver can sometimes hold Hideki back, but he won’t need it as much this week.
Plus, he’s hot right now. His last three finishes were T14, T14, and T3.
Akshay Bhatia (+4500, DraftKings)
Akshay hasn’t won since his triumph at the AP Invitational, but his strokes gained numbers this season—particularly with the putter—are among the best in the field.
Great putting is a superpower.
It’s a great week to be a golf fan.
The LPGA is at Riviera for the Women’s U.S. Open, and the TOUR is headed to Jack’s place, Muirfield Village, where Scottie Scheffler will look to three-peat.
He would be the first golfer since Tiger to do so at Muirfield, and the first since Steve Stricker at the John Deere Classic to win 3 TOUR events in a row.
The reason why he’s won at Muirfield twice in a row is because the course places a ton of emphasis on approach play, and there is no better player in the world over the last few years in that category than Scottie Scheffler.
Muirfield also penalizes missed fairways more than any other course on TOUR.
Not because it’s narrow, but because the rough is thick, which makes approach shots into the small, firm greens particularly difficult.
This course was designed by the ultimate ball-striker, Jack Nicklaus, so we will be looking to target elite iron players this week.
Who’s In The Field?
Scottie Scheffler leads a loaded field this week. It’s a signature event, and pretty much all of the top players on TOUR will be there, including 9 of the top 10.
Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland are the two biggest names who are OUT this week.
Here are the key stats for The Memorial Tournament:
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Build cards around elite approach players first. SG: Approach has the strongest correlation with SG: Total here at 0.612, well ahead of off-the-tee. Bettors should prioritize players gaining heavily with irons, especially those strong from 150–225+ yards, because Muirfield Village produces a lot of mid/long-iron approaches.
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Don’t overpay for pure bombers. Driving distance shows only a 0.061 correlation with total performance, while driving accuracy is more meaningful at 0.306. The course is long at 7,449 yards, but it also narrows fairways, suppresses driving distance, and penalizes missed fairways more than average. Favor “long enough and accurate” over reckless distance.
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Difficulty increases the value of bogey avoidance, short game, and putting floors. Scoring is tough at +1.38, GIR is only 55.5%, and penalty strokes are elevated. With SG: Putting at 0.506 and Around-the-Green at 0.455, this is not just a ball-striking event; players who can survive missed greens and avoid doubles should be upgraded for matchup, top-20, and cut-line markets.
The Details
Previous Winners
How To Watch
Featured Groups:
Weekly Bets: 50th Memorial Tournament
We’ve partnered with Keith Stewart at Read The Line to share his weekly golf betting picks with the Caddyshanks crew. If you’re the type who enjoys breaking down matchups, spotting trends, and hunting for value, you’ll feel right at home in the RTL community. Use code CADDYSHANKS2026 for 20% OFF.
Keith Stewart’s Picks
Si Woo Kim (+2200 BetMGM)
In his last eight starts at The Memorial, Si Woo Kim has GAINED with the putter six times! Probably Kim’s best career putting course, he is on an incredible heater T2G in 2026. Ranked third on the PGA TOUR, Si Woo is gaining an average of 1. 5 strokes per round over 53 measured rounds this year. Only Scottie Scheffler and Matt Fitzpatrick have been better. Fresh off gaining eight strokes with his flatstick at the CJ Cup, Kim can more than contend on a course that has been very good to him throughout his career.
Ben Griffin (+3900 DraftKings)
We all saw Ben Griffin come close to defending his title at the Charles Schwab. Walking the practice tee at Muirfield Village, Griffin looks really good. Ben is a player perfectly suited for Jack’s place. Well-rounded T2G and an excellent putter on super smooth surfaces, Griffin finished runner-up to Scottie Scheffler last year. Gaining more than 11 strokes on the field at The Memorial in 2025, this is a perfect example of form colliding with a confidence-producing venue.
Caddyshanks Picks
Scottie Scheffler (+310 Draftkings)
The “bet Scottie every week no matter what” strategy hasn’t worked out well so far this year, but he could turn that around easily this week.
Justin Thomas (+40000 Draftkings)
We tried our hand with betting JT last week and it didn’t work out for us, but he’s finding his form again and the win is going to come. Muirfield Village tends to let the cream rise to the top, we like JT to be hanging around come Sunday.
Sepp Straka (+6000 Draftkings)
Sepp has back-to-back Top 5’s at The Memorial, and the number on him this week is too good to resist, considering he’s in good form and has proven he can contend here.
A mix of innovation, uncertainty, rebuilding, leadership decisions, and a reminder that the basics still win.
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→ Oakland Hills opens new clubhouse four years after fire
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→ Why Jim Furyk was the only real option for U.S. Ryder Cup captain
Jim Furyk is a good pick. Not flashy, but experienced, respected, and about as steady as it gets. Sometimes that’s exactly what you need.
→ Si Woo Kim hit 71.75% of fairways – here’s what you can learn
Si Woo Kim keeps it simple – hit fairways, avoid mistakes, repeat. Not revolutionary, but it’ll probably help your game more than whatever swing thought you’re working on right now.
