It’s a great week to be a golf fan.
The LPGA is at Riviera for the Women’s U.S. Open, and the TOUR is headed to Jack’s place, Muirfield Village, where Scottie Scheffler will look to three-peat.
He would be the first golfer since Tiger to do so at Muirfield, and the first since Steve Stricker at the John Deere Classic to win 3 TOUR events in a row.
The reason why he’s won at Muirfield twice in a row is because the course places a ton of emphasis on approach play, and there is no better player in the world over the last few years in that category than Scottie Scheffler.
Muirfield also penalizes missed fairways more than any other course on TOUR.
Not because it’s narrow, but because the rough is thick, which makes approach shots into the small, firm greens particularly difficult.
This course was designed by the ultimate ball-striker, Jack Nicklaus, so we will be looking to target elite iron players this week.
Who’s In The Field?
Scottie Scheffler leads a loaded field this week. It’s a signature event, and pretty much all of the top players on TOUR will be there, including 9 of the top 10.
Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland are the two biggest names who are OUT this week.
Here are the key stats for The Memorial Tournament:
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Build cards around elite approach players first. SG: Approach has the strongest correlation with SG: Total here at 0.612, well ahead of off-the-tee. Bettors should prioritize players gaining heavily with irons, especially those strong from 150–225+ yards, because Muirfield Village produces a lot of mid/long-iron approaches.
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Don’t overpay for pure bombers. Driving distance shows only a 0.061 correlation with total performance, while driving accuracy is more meaningful at 0.306. The course is long at 7,449 yards, but it also narrows fairways, suppresses driving distance, and penalizes missed fairways more than average. Favor “long enough and accurate” over reckless distance.
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Difficulty increases the value of bogey avoidance, short game, and putting floors. Scoring is tough at +1.38, GIR is only 55.5%, and penalty strokes are elevated. With SG: Putting at 0.506 and Around-the-Green at 0.455, this is not just a ball-striking event; players who can survive missed greens and avoid doubles should be upgraded for matchup, top-20, and cut-line markets.
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Weekly Bets: 50th Memorial Tournament
We’ve partnered with Keith Stewart at Read The Line to share his weekly golf betting picks with the Caddyshanks crew. If you’re the type who enjoys breaking down matchups, spotting trends, and hunting for value, you’ll feel right at home in the RTL community. Use code CADDYSHANKS2026 for 20% OFF.
Keith Stewart’s Picks
Si Woo Kim (+2200 BetMGM)
In his last eight starts at The Memorial, Si Woo Kim has GAINED with the putter six times! Probably Kim’s best career putting course, he is on an incredible heater T2G in 2026. Ranked third on the PGA TOUR, Si Woo is gaining an average of 1. 5 strokes per round over 53 measured rounds this year. Only Scottie Scheffler and Matt Fitzpatrick have been better. Fresh off gaining eight strokes with his flatstick at the CJ Cup, Kim can more than contend on a course that has been very good to him throughout his career.
Ben Griffin (+3900 DraftKings)
We all saw Ben Griffin come close to defending his title at the Charles Schwab. Walking the practice tee at Muirfield Village, Griffin looks really good. Ben is a player perfectly suited for Jack’s place. Well-rounded T2G and an excellent putter on super smooth surfaces, Griffin finished runner-up to Scottie Scheffler last year. Gaining more than 11 strokes on the field at The Memorial in 2025, this is a perfect example of form colliding with a confidence-producing venue.
Caddyshanks Picks
Scottie Scheffler (+310 Draftkings)
The “bet Scottie every week no matter what” strategy hasn’t worked out well so far this year, but he could turn that around easily this week.
Justin Thomas (+40000 Draftkings)
We tried our hand with betting JT last week and it didn’t work out for us, but he’s finding his form again and the win is going to come. Muirfield Village tends to let the cream rise to the top, we like JT to be hanging around come Sunday.
Sepp Straka (+6000 Draftkings)
Sepp has back-to-back Top 5’s at The Memorial, and the number on him this week is too good to resist, considering he’s in good form and has proven he can contend here.
Last week, we had a birdie-fest.
This week, we should have something more challenging (depending on the weather).
The host venue this week, Colonial, has a rich history. Ben Hogan won five times here, and it’s the longest running tournament held at the same venue on TOUR.
They’ve been playing here for 80 years, yet since Hogan’s time, no one has ever won back-to-back. He did it twice, by the way.
Secondly, Colonial is narrow, with small greens – it’s not a bombers course.
Now, I am no golf course architecture expert, but I’ve noticed a theme.
At courses like Riviera, Harbour Town, and Colonial, all of the sudden how far the pros hit the ball doesn’t matter as much, and the golf seems to be way more enjoyable to watch.
What do those courses have in common?
They were all built before 1950, they are all old-school, strategic “shot-maker” courses that reward precision over power. They emphasize placing tee shots in the right spots, controlling approach angles, and hitting accurate irons into smaller or well-protected greens.
Here are the key stats for Colonial:
- Prioritize elite iron players and putters. The two strongest within-event correlations with SG Total are SG Putting at 0.648 and SG Approach at 0.610, well ahead of off-the-tee and around-the-green. For betting, that points toward players gaining consistently on approach who also have a credible putting spike in their profile.
- Build around the 125–175 yard approach window. The biggest approach buckets are 125–150 yards: 20.1% and 150–175 yards: 20.9%, so roughly 41% of approaches come from those two ranges alone. Proximity and scoring from short-to-mid irons should matter more here than generic long-iron or wedge-only splits.
- Don’t overrate driving accuracy by itself. Colonial is narrow, with 29.9-yard fairways and only 54.7% driving accuracy, but the correlation of accuracy to SG Total is just 0.169, while distance is 0.289 and total SG Off the Tee is 0.444. The betting takeaway: look for controlled drivers who can gain off the tee without being reckless, but don’t automatically downgrade longer players just because they miss fairways.
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Weekly Bets: 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
We’ve partnered with Keith Stewart at Read The Line to share his weekly golf betting picks with the Caddyshanks crew. If you’re the type who enjoys breaking down matchups, spotting trends, and hunting for value, you’ll feel right at home in the RTL community.
Use code CADDYSHANKS2026 for 20% OFF.
Keith Stewart’s Picks
Rickie Fowler (+2400 DraftKings)
Rickie Fowler has three top 10s in his last four starts. Rickie finished T60 at Aronimink because of his putter. Those greens are the toughest these guys will see all year on TOUR. All other aspects of Fowler’s game have been firing for the better part of 2026. He tied sixth and T16 in two of his last three starts at Colonial. It’s time for Fowler to finish one off. Gaining almost six strokes on average against the field at Hogan’s home over his last three trips to Fort Worth, Rickie won’t be the only Oklahoma guy winning in Texas this week.
Taylor Moore (+9400 DraftKings)
Innisbrook’s Copperhead course is a great comp venue for Colonial Country Club. Taylor Moore won the Valspar Championship (2023) and is coming off four straight top-40 finishes. Each result has improved by the week: T39-T20-T17-T14. Moore is a great close-range scorer who can drive the golf ball. When his iron game gets going, that’s when Taylor can win. Gaining seven strokes on the field in his last two starts and trending up for two months, I expect a little more from Taylor this week.
Caddyshanks Picks
Justin Thomas (+1800 Fanduel)
The last time we saw JT he was playing lights out on Sunday at Aronimink. Week by week, he’s been returning to major championship form. We like him to not only compete this week, but also at the two remaining majors this year.
Sungjae Im (+3500 Fanduel)
I am going with Sungjae in back-to-back weeks. He’s got 3 top 10’s this season, he’s finished Top 15 at Colonial three different times. It’s also worth noting that he was one of a handful of guys to go super-low last week, with a 61 in the 2nd round.
Cameron Young just made it boring in Miami, a feat that’s not easy to do.
He went wire-to-wire, and nobody – not the Miami humidity, not even Scottie Scheffler – really made him sweat.
Young ultimately went on to win by six strokes, securing the third victory of his career.
More importantly, it was his second win in the last seven weeks, both coming at tough tracks. First, he won The Players at TPC Sawgrass. Now, he’s added the Cadillac Championship at the Blue Monster.
Add in his performance at The Masters, where he went toe-to-toe with Rory for the Green Jacket before his putter failed him, and you’d be forgiven for claiming that Cam Young plays his best golf on the hardest courses.
Because that’s exactly what he does.
In addition to his game, which he has shown the world plenty of over the last two months, Young also demonstrated what golf is really all about.
On the second hole, as he was taking his backswing, the golf ball moved forward almost imperceptibly.
Young immediately called in a rules official and explained that he wasn’t sure whether he had caused the ball to move. His club was moving backward while the ball rolled forward, but because he couldn’t be 100% certain that he hadn’t inadvertently caused it to move, he called a one-stroke penalty on himself.
When you hear people say that “golf is a gentleman’s game,” I believe Cam Young’s actions showed exactly what that means.
Cameron Young called a one-stroke penalty on himself on No. 2 Sunday @Cadillac_Champ after causing his ball to move at address.
He still saved par and maintains a five-shot lead.
📺 PGA TOUR LIVE on ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/WcmHdr7MNF
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) May 3, 2026
Another solid victory in what has turned into a breakout season for Cameron Young. He is the first player to win at TPC Sawgrass and Doral in the same season since some guy named Tiger Woods did it.
What about everybody else?
Scottie Scheffler birdied three of the last four holes en route to a solo second-place finish. That’s his third runner-up finish in his last three starts, for those keeping track at home.
Ben Griffin, who had a stellar season last year, finished in solo third place.
Si Woo Kim, Sepp Straka, and Adam Scott finished T4 at 11-under.
We’ll see you on Wednesday with our weekly picks for the Truist Championship at Quail Hollow.
Odds for the 2026 Truist Championship
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | +620 |
| Cameron Young | +890 |
| Xander Schauffele | +1225 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | +1650 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +1800 |
| Si Woo Kim | +2350 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +2450 |
| Collin Morikawa | +2700 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +2800 |
| Robert MacIntyre | +2900 |
I won’t lie, I’m pretty excited for this one.
First off, Trump National Doral Golf Club – aka The Blue Monster – can be an absolute brute. It stretches over 7,700 yards, and those closing, water-lined holes are one of the toughest finishing stretches we see anywhere in pro golf.
Tiger Woods once put it plainly, talking about the 18th:
“It’s one of the toughest par 4s you’ll ever play if it’s into the wind.”
Good news if you like carnage – wind might be a factor on Saturday, with gusts up to 20mph. Unfortunately, it may thunderstorm on Sunday, but it’s Florida so that could change by the time you’re reading this.
Additionally, there’s some real history here.
The Blue Monster has crowned winners like Jack Nicklaus, Tom Weiskopf, Lee Trevino, Raymond Floyd, Nick Faldo, Ben Crenshaw, and of course, Tiger Woods. Always nice when a course brings a little pedigree with it.
It’s a Signature Event, so a strong field is expected, but this one will be missing a few stars; Rory McIlroy, Matt Fitzpatrick, Ludvig Åberg, Xander Schauffele, and Patrick Cantlay are all sitting it out.
In fairness, it makes sense. The schedule right now is a bit of a gauntlet – Signature Event (Cadillac), Signature Event (Truist), then straight into a major at the PGA Championship. Not exactly a light stretch, and this week is clearly where some guys are choosing to take a breather.
Someone at the PGA TOUR should do a better job with the schedule.
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Weekly Bets: The Cadillac Championship
We’ve partnered with Keith Stewart at Read The Line to share his weekly golf betting picks with the Caddyshanks crew. If you’re the type who enjoys breaking down matchups, spotting trends, and hunting for value, you’ll feel right at home in the RTL community.
Keith Stewart’s Picks
Collin Morikawa (+2000 bet365)
The first player I looked for on property at Trump National Doral was Collin Morikawa. Since returning from his PLAYERS WD, Morikawa has finished T7 and T4. Is Collin healthy? Not only did he swing beautifully, but his driver speed looked fast, much quicker than in his last two starts. If you need one player to hit a 200-yard approach, I’m picking Morikawa. If Morikawa was contending with injury concerns, imagine how confident he will be swinging, not that he feels good!
Keegan Bradley (+6500 Caesars)
Keegan Bradley is one of the best mid- to long-iron players in the field. With the number of approaches around 200 yards during each round, Doral is playing right into the best part of Bradley’s game. A Southeast Florida resident, I don’t worry about the Bermudagrass or the short game. Twelfth at the RBC Heritage, Keegan has two top 8 finishes on the Blue Course in four starts. Bradley’s ball striking is solid in the wind, which is another characteristic I’m focusing on this week.
Caddyshanks Picks
Sam Burns (+3100 Draftkings)
Sam Burns has played quite well over the last 9 months, particularly with his approach play and putter, but he’s also got the length necessary to beat it around Doral.
Hideki Matsuyama (+3100 Draftkings)
If you’ve been reading this newsletter for awhile, you know I love betting Hideki, and you know it rarely ever works out for me, but we will always have that final round 62 to win the Genesis Invitational. He hasn’t won yet this year, but he will. He’s top 20 in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Approach and Around-the-Green.
Scottie Scheffler (+310 Draftkings)
Admittedly, the “bet Scottie every week no matter what” strategy hasn’t played out very well this season, but he’s averaging 5.1 birdies per round so far for the year – the best mark on TOUR. The wins are coming.
That’s all folks – see you next week for the Truist Championship.
Scottie Scheffler is the best player in the world, but Augusta has a way of making even the best look human. Sports Illustrated captured the moment that may define his 2026 Masters — a devastating lip-out on the 17th hole that had the crowd gasping and Scheffler staring into the cup in disbelief.
The miss came at a critical moment when Scheffler was still in contention, and it effectively ended any realistic path to the green jacket. It’s the kind of putt that a player of his caliber makes nine times out of ten — which is exactly what makes it sting so much.
Scheffler has been the dominant force in golf for the better part of two years. He’ll be back at Augusta with something to prove, and you can bet that putt on 17 will be playing on a loop in his head between now and next April.
