Preview & Picks: The Houston Open

The Texas Swing, if you could call it that, really sits in an unfortunate position on the TOUR schedule.

It fits right in between the Florida Swing and The Masters, and as a result, the fields just aren’t that compelling. The Houston Open is usually bolstered by Scottie Scheffler, who likes to compete in his home state, but not this year.

Yesterday, he made a surprise WD, because he and his wife are expecting their second child.

Good news for the Schefflers, and good news for everyone else in the field too. With Scheffler out, the favorites are last years champ, Min Woo Lee, along with Chris Gotterup, Jake Knapp, and Brooks Koepka.

Memorial Park, which Brooks Koepka helped redesign a few years ago, is a bombers course. Notice how all of those betting favorites have that in common?

Field Notes

• Putting has been the biggest separator – SG: Putting shows the highest correlation (~0.65), which is notable. On a course where scoring gets low (around -1.1 avg), players who can convert birdie looks and avoid mistakes on the greens tend to separate.

• Approach play still matters a lot – SG: Approach is right behind (~0.58 correlation). With a large share of shots coming from 125–200+ yards, strong iron players continue to have a clear edge.

• Distance > accuracy off the tee – Driving distance (~0.20) outpaces accuracy (~0.15), suggesting Memorial Park rewards length more than precision. It’s relatively forgiving, so players can lean on power without being overly punished.

The Details

Previous Winners

How To Watch:

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PGA TOUR LIVE is available exclusively on ESPN+ and consists of four streams.

Weekly Bets: Houston Open

We’ve partnered with Keith Stewart at Read The Line to share his weekly golf betting picks with the Caddyshanks crew. If you’re the type who enjoys breaking down matchups, spotting trends, and hunting for value, you’ll feel right at home in the RTL community. Join Here.

Keith Stewart’s Picks

Nicolai Højgaard (+2800 BetMGM)

Here we go again. Nicolai Højgaard ranks eighth in approach, thirty-sixth around the greens, and seventeenth with the putter. He has plenty of ball speed and also sits inside the top 18 for par 3 and par 4 scoring among players in Houston. We’re looking for a bomber who can scramble, chip, and putt. Let’s not go beyond one of the Wonder Twins. I’m keeping Nicolai on my card for another week because I believe he can win.

Ryan Fox (+6700 DraftKings)

Ryan Fox is gaining in all aspects of his game over his last six starts. 2026 has been good to the Kiwi, with four top 25s in four PGA TOUR starts this season. Fox is primed to close out another tournament when we find the right fit. Memorial Park’s mid-iron requirement, short game successes, and positive putting skill set match Fox’s player CV. Ryan finished T15 last year in Houston with one bad round. Be sly and grab Foxy further down the odds board.

Caddyshanks Picks

Chris Gotterup (+2050 Draftkings)

With Scheffler out, we’re going back to the well once more with Gotterup. Between him and Cam Young, you’re looking at the two best breakout candidates of the year.

Brooks Koepka (+2500 Draftkings)

The major concern with Brooks right now is his putter, but the rest of his game has been really solid. If he can get the magic wand working, he should be in contention come Sunday.

Aldrich Potgieter (+8000 Draftkings)

The young man is an absolute bomber, and this field feels like it could be one that gives way to a longshot winner. Why not take a flyer?

Preview & Picks: The Valspar Championship

One of the best parts of the Florida Swing? These courses don’t mess around.

You go from The Bear Trap… to Bay Hill… to Sawgrass… to The Snake Pit. It’s basically a four-week stress test for the best players in the world.

We’ve already seen it take its toll. Shane Lowry got chewed up by The Bear Trap. Daniel Berger couldn’t close at Bay Hill. Ludvig Aberg let it slip away at Sawgrass. These are tough courses to win at.

Now the TOUR heads to Innisbrook, where the Copperhead Course – and The Snake Pit – are waiting.

The field is pretty strong. Seven of the Top 20 in the world are teeing it up: Xander Schauffele, J.J. Spaun, Justin Thomas, Matt Fitzpatrick, Ben Griffin, Viktor Hovland, and Jacob Bridgeman.

And there’s depth – Brooks Koepka, Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler, Keegan Bradley, Sahith Theegala, and Patrick Cantlay are all competing. Akshay Bhatia WD today.

Tough course (6th hardest on TOUR), strong field, and a little history with the 25th anniversary of the Valspar.

Feels like we’re set up for another good one.

And if things break right… maybe we go back-to-back after hitting Cam Young last week.

Field Notes

• Approach play is the separator – SG: Approach had the highest correlation the last two years (~0.56–0.61), well ahead of everything else. With a heavy concentration of shots coming from 150–200 yards, this is a classic second-shot course. Target elite iron players, especially strong mid-iron performers.

• Accuracy over distance off the tee – Driving distance barely moves the needle (~0.03 correlation), while accuracy matters more (~0.20–0.27). With narrow fairways (~26–27 yards) and penalties for misses, players who keep it in play have a clear edge.

• Don’t ignore putting – SG: Putting showed a surprisingly strong correlation (~0.59 both years), nearly matching approach in 2024. On a difficult course where scoring hovers just over par, players who can convert limited chances tend to separate.

The Details:

Previous Winners:

How To Watch:

Featured Groups:

PGA TOUR LIVE is available exclusively on ESPN+ and consists of four streams.

Weekly Bets: AP Invitational

We’ve partnered with Keith Stewart at Read The Line to share his weekly golf betting picks with the Caddyshanks crew. If you’re the type who enjoys breaking down matchups, spotting trends, and hunting for value, you’ll feel right at home in the RTL community. Join Here.

Keith Stewart’s Picks

Nicolai Højgaard (+3600 DraftKings)

I’m excited about this pick. More excited than Morikawa at THE PLAYERS, in hindsight, yes! Nicolai Højgaard has been quietly playing some really solid golf. Højgaard lost strokes with his driver due to one bad round at TPC Sawgrass and still finished in the top 30. Prior to Ponte Vedra, Nicolai finished top 6 in three of his five starts. The ball striking and putter are both really good, and he has a secret weapon. Højgaard is ranked third in the field for par 3 scoring. With five of those to play per round on the Copperhead Course, that’s an edge most will miss.

Austin Smotherman (+5500 Bet Rivers)

Since the PGA TOUR started the Florida swing, we keep hearing Austin Smotherman’s name. Smotherman has gained with his iron game in EVERY start this season; all seven of them. Austin earned his way into the API and finished T13 at THE PLAYERS. A T8 at The American Express and runner-up at the Cognizant Classic, Smotherman’s star power continues to rise. Two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour last June, this kid can close. No rookie at Innisbrook, in two starts, Austin has finished T25 and T36. If you’re worried about the putter, the Copperhead is one course where Austin has gained strokes in every start. Another sign Smotherman can win, his odds. Three weeks ago, they were in the triple digits.

Caddyshanks Picks

Jacob Bridgeman (+2200 Draftkings)

After winning at Riviera, Bridgeman has continued to pay well. He’s the best putter in the field right now and is a great course fit. The only issue here is that I hate how low his number is. Vegas always knows.

Sahith Theegala (+3600 Draftkings)

Sahith has played well overall this year, with three Top 10 finishes. He checks the iron-play box, but will need a hot week with the putter to contend.

Jordan Spieth (+2700 Fanduel)

Normally, this spot is reserved for the Scottie Scheffler auto-pick, but he’s not in the field this week, so we are hopping on the Spieth rollercoaster. He’s won here before you know…

We’ve partnered with Keith Stewart at Read The Line to share his weekly golf betting picks with the Caddyshanks crew. If you’re the type who enjoys breaking down matchups, spotting trends, and hunting for value, you’ll feel right at home in the RTL community. Join Here.

Keith Stewart’s Picks

Collin Morikawa (+2100 DraftKings)

Collin Morikawa is a mega chalk pick at THE PLAYERS. I’ve watched enough golf to know Morikawa will be in the mix on Sunday afternoon. Collin is playing with a ton of confidence, and that can’t be ignored. With many questions around the other top contenders, why not Morikawa? Driving accuracy, check; approach play, check; and major closing ability, check! Too often, we overthink the obvious when picking outrights. Collin has finished in the top 7 three consecutive times on TOUR and has two top 13 finishes in his last three trips to TPC Sawgrass. Trust what makes the most sense.

Chris Gotterup (+5000 FanDuel) 

I think we need to pay attention to Chris Gotterup in big events. The two-time winner on TOUR continues to perform even when the venue doesn’t appear to fit. Positive on approach in five straight starts, Gotterup’s heavy fade off the tee will keep him in the fairway. From there, he can attack and score. I’m not worried about Sunday at Bay Hill; that course was literally dead at the end of play. One start at THE PLAYERS, Chris is not a TPC Sawgrass rookie. An aggressive player who is competing with tons of confidence, Gotterup is about to elevate his career in a big way.

Caddyshanks Picks

Si Woo Kim (+3300 Fanduel)

We really just might pick Si Woo and Hideki every week until one of them wins. It’s coming!

Cam Young (+5000 Fanduel)

Earlier in the year, the two guys who seemed most likely to break out were Chris Gotterup and Cam Young. Keith took Gotterup, I am taking Cam.

Scottie Scheffler (+330 Fanduel)

The auto-bet Scottie every tournament strategy is off to a bumpy start, as Scottie’s play hasn’t been to the level we’re used to, but we aren’t going to allow any doubt to creep in. He’ll get it dialed in.