This one is for all the marbles.
The final 30 golfers—those who made it through the first two weeks of the FedEx Cup Playoffs—will tee it up this week at East Lake, about five miles east of downtown Atlanta.
Whoever wins is the TOUR Champion.
On its face, that sounds meaningful. But the PGA TOUR has long had a major problem with how its season ends—namely, that fans and players don’t assign the same importance to the FedEx Cup Playoffs that they do to the major championships, which the PGA TOUR does not own or operate.
If you’ve watched the Playoffs over the years, it’s easy to understand why new CEO Brian Rolapp announced the changes he did yesterday.
They even put out a handy little video to break it all down:
Breaking down how the @TOURChamp is changing in 2028, with @_SportsBall_. pic.twitter.com/VTPDfArdxa
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) August 25, 2026
That makes this the penultimate TOUR Championship at East Lake. After next year, things will look much different—and, hopefully, feel more meaningful to fans and players.
For now, it’s all eyes on East Lake and the final 30.
Key Stats for the TOUR Championship
Based on the 2025 tournament at East Lake.
- Back the elite: East Lake separated the best players more than a typical TOUR course, so this is not the week to reach too far down the board.
- Favor bombers: Distance was rewarded more than accuracy, giving longer hitters a clear advantage over shorter, fairway-first players.
- Prioritize putting and approach play: Those two categories accounted for 84.4% of the scoring variance, while driving contributed just 8.5%. Target strong iron players with a hot putter.
The Details
Previous Winners
How to Watch
Featured Groups
ESPN+ has featured-group coverage for the TOUR Championship.
All featured groups and tee times are available here.
Weekly Bets: TOUR Championship
Last week, we gave out our sixth winner of the season, with Keith Stewart picking Wyndham Clark.
Join Keith’s private golf community here.
Use code CADDYSHANKS2026 for 20% off.
Keith Stewart’s Picks
Wyndham Clark (+1600, DraftKings)
In two starts at East Lake, Wyndham Clark has finished third and eighth.
Multiple winners are a significant trend in the FedEx Cup Playoffs. In 19 editions, 12 players have won twice during the same playoff year. Five of them finished their FedEx Cup championship run by winning the final two events—a feat that has happened twice in the last five years.
Power and touch. Clark is your Player of the Year, and he’ll solidify that statement Sunday in Atlanta.
Gary Woodland (+4800, DraftKings)
It might be viewed as a sentimental pick, but Gary Woodland has the skill set required to win at East Lake.
Fresh off a fourth-place finish at the BMW Championship, Woodland learned a thing or two about his game while in contention. With smaller crowds and a better course fit, don’t be surprised if his dream season continues.
Gary gained on the field in all four major strokes-gained categories last week. That’s the type of well-rounded play that suits the TOUR Championship.
Caddyshanks Picks
Chris Gotterup (+2200, FanDuel)
Gotterup is having the best season of his career, with three wins so far. He also finished T4 last week at the BMW Championship, so unlike someone like Matt Fitzpatrick, we know his recent form is solid.
He finished T10 last year at East Lake. In a limited field, let’s trust Gotterup to get it done.
J.J. Spaun (+4000, DraftKings)
Spaun won the Valero back in April, and he’s added a few top-10 finishes since then. Admittedly, there aren’t any stats that jump off the page.
Last week, he played two great rounds to start but faltered over the weekend. He’s a grinder, and I think he finds a way to keep himself in the thick of things this weekend.
Scottie Scheffler (+350, DraftKings)
You know what’s funny?
If you had bet Wyndham Clark every single week he played this season, you’d be in the black—big time.
Not so much with Scottie. But the captain—that’s me—will go down with his ship.
Wyndham Clark played his first 36 holes at the BMW Championship without making a bogey, shooting 64 both days.
In the third round, he doubled the first hole—and then played the remaining 17 holes in 7-under to shoot 65.
He still almost blew it on Sunday.
How? By making three bogeys in his first 10 holes.
After all that good golf through the first three rounds, Clark watched his five-stroke lead disappear.
Poof. Gone.
And just like at the U.S. Open at Shinnecock, the crowd seemed pretty happy to see it happen. They were certainly favoring Rory McIlroy, who caught Clark midway through the final round.
Clark stepped onto the 16th tee tied with Rory. He hadn’t made a birdie all day, and the odds were against him—the 232-yard par-3 had yielded just five birdies all round.
Then he made his best swing and his best putting stroke of the day, rolling in a birdie to regain the lead.
He went on to birdie the 17th and 18th as well, ultimately winning by three strokes over Patrick Cantlay after McIlroy faltered with a bogey on the 17th.
The BMW Championship was Clark’s third victory of the season. He’s officially a lock for the Presidents Cup team—and firmly in the Player of the Year conversation.
Player of the Year?
Wyndham Clark has an argument.
He’s won three times this season, including a major championship.
Matt Fitzpatrick and Chris Gotterup have also won three times, but neither won a major.
Scottie Scheffler has the best statistical résumé and two victories, but he didn’t win a major this season.
So, what matters more: the best golf over the full season or three victories with a major?
What’s Next?
The TOUR Championship at East Lake.
TOUR Championship Odds
- Scottie Scheffler: +300
- Rory McIlroy: +850
- Ludvig Åberg: +1400
- Wyndham Clark: +1400
- Xander Schauffele: +1400
- Patrick Cantlay: +1600
- Sam Burns: +1600
- Tommy Fleetwood: +1600
- Cam Young: +1800
- Chris Gotterup: +1800
- Collin Morikawa: +1800
- Matt Fitzpatrick: +2000
Fifty golfers have made the 284-mile trek from Memphis to St. Louis to compete in this week’s BMW Championship.
The host course, Bellerive Country Club, was designed by Robert Trent Jones and is known to be a bit of a brute.
As a result, it even has its own nickname: The Green Monster of Ladue.
Bellerive has hosted three major championships—the 1965 U.S. Open, where Gary Player completed the career Grand Slam; the 1992 PGA Championship, won by Nick Price; and the 2018 PGA Championship.
2018 was the last time golf fans saw this course, and it was a doozy.
If you recall, that PGA Championship was won by some guy named Brooks Koepka, while some other guy named Tiger Woods tried to chase him down with a 64 on Sunday.
Koepka answered with a 66 and took home the hardware.
Neither of them is in the field this week, eight years later, but man, Tiger’s highlights from that final round are still fun to watch.
Brooks won with a score of 16-under that year.
This week, the books are projecting the winning score to land around 262, which would be 18-under since Bellerive will play as a par 70 for these guys—and a par 72 for the rest of us.
Moving from the past to the present, the top 30 in the FedExCup standings after this week will advance to the TOUR Championship at East Lake.
Read: The Minimum Finish Required for Each Player to Earn a Spot in the TOUR Championship
Key Stats for the BMW Championship
Based on 2018 PGA Championship data*
- Prioritize bombers. Bellerive strongly favored longer hitters in 2018, making driving distance and power a much more important filter than accuracy off the tee.
- Approach play was the biggest separator. Strokes Gained: Approach accounted for 41.7% of scoring variance, well above the TOUR average of 34.9%. Look for players combining length with elite iron play.
- Don’t over-weight putting or short game. Putting and around-the-green play accounted for less scoring variance than normal. With a 1.05 skill slope, better players also held a modest advantage—pointing toward big-name, high-end ball strikers rather than short-game specialists or pure longshots.
The Details
Previous Winners
How to Watch
Featured Groups
ESPN+ has featured-group coverage of the BMW Championship.
→ View all featured groups and tee times here
Weekly Bets: BMW Championship
We’ve partnered with Keith Stewart at Read The Line to share his weekly golf betting picks with the Caddyshanks crew.
If you’re the type who enjoys breaking down matchups, spotting trends, and hunting for value, you’ll feel right at home in the RTL community.
Use code CADDYSHANKS2026 for 20% off.
Keith Stewart’s Picks
Viktor Hovland (+3000, FanDuel)
If anyone can compete with Scottie Scheffler on approach, it is Viktor Hovland.
A proven winner at the BMW Championship in 2023 on a course that draws strong comparisons to Olympia Fields, I’m backing an aggressive player who fell out of contention in Memphis because the driver went awry.
Bellerive gives him a little more room off the tee, and I love the bounce-back potential for the 2023 FedExCup champion.
Hovland ranks fifth in the field on approach over the last few events and fourth in Birdies or Better Percentage.
Firepower, elite iron play, and the overall trend—I’m all in.
Wyndham Clark (+3300, DraftKings)
There’s a ton of talk surrounding Jake Knapp this week.
I’ll take the shorter odds and, in my opinion, a better chance at winning with Wyndham Clark.
Why?
Very few players have beaten the world No. 1 head-to-head this year, and Clark did it at the CJ Cup.
I also like TPC Craig Ranch as a comparison course—albeit with less scoring at Bellerive—and Clark’s approach play this season separates him from many of the other driver-and-putter-heavy players.
Coming off a fifth-place finish at the St. Jude, if scoring and power are what we need this week, Wyndham can win.
Caddyshanks Picks
Hideki Matsuyama (+3000, DraftKings)
I have a friend who reads this newsletter every week just for the picks, and he constantly makes fun of me for how often I pick Hideki.
I don’t care one bit.
He has four top-10 finishes in his last four starts.
That is the definition of knocking on the door.
Si Woo Kim (+2700, DraftKings)
Si Woo has played so well all season but hasn’t been able to cash in.
Besides Scottie, Si Woo has the most top-10 finishes this season.
Can he—or Hideki—finally get one across the finish line?
Scottie Scheffler (+350, DraftKings)
Wouldn’t you know it?
Last week was the first week I didn’t write about the “Bet Scottie Every Week” strategy—which has not exactly been a profitable endeavor—and then he goes out and wins.
He’ll probably go back-to-back now.
The internet may have gotten a little ahead of itself on Jon Rahm.
Over the last few days, rumors have been flying that Rahm is preparing to leave LIV Golf and has already worked out some sort of deal to return to the PGA Tour.
The first part might eventually prove true.
The second part appears to be a much bigger stretch.
Golf Digest’s Joel Beall poured some cold water on the PGA Tour rumors yesterday:
“All Rahm smoke is coming from his camp. Tour already offered a reprieve and he (and DeChambeau and Smith) declined. Besides, Koepka wanted to return; Rahm + others asking only because LIV’s in trouble. Rolapp will not waste political capital re-extending immunity.”
That’s a pretty important distinction.
Rahm Leaving LIV Is Not The Same As Rahm Returning To The PGA Tour
There appears to be legitimate uncertainty surrounding Rahm’s future with LIV.
Last week, Reuters cited a Telegraph report saying LIV officials were “almost resigned” to Rahm leaving after this season. The report also said the DP World Tour was increasingly confident Rahm would play more events there next year.
Naturally, that sparked speculation that a PGA Tour return was next.
But there’s a problem.
The PGA Tour already gave Rahm that opportunity.
When Brooks Koepka returned earlier this year, the Tour created a time-sensitive pathway that was also offered to Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau and Cameron Smith.
Koepka took it.
The other three did not.
According to Beall, PGA Tour CEO Brian Rolapp isn’t particularly interested in reopening that door now simply because LIV’s situation has become considerably less comfortable.
And you can understand why.
There’s a big difference between Koepka approaching the Tour because he wanted to come back and LIV players looking for an exit once the league starts running into trouble.
So, What Happens Now?
Rahm could still leave LIV.
He could play significantly more on the DP World Tour.
And, eventually, he could absolutely find his way back onto the PGA Tour.
But as of right now, there does not appear to be some secret handshake agreement sending Rahm back to the Tour.
For now, the most accurate version of the story is much less exciting:
Jon Rahm’s future with LIV Golf looks increasingly uncertain. His return to the PGA Tour does not appear to be a done deal.
In other words, there’s smoke.
Just probably not from the fire everyone thought.
The FedExCup Playoffs have arrived, and only the top 70 players in the standings remain to compete for massive purses and plenty of other perks.
After this week, that number gets whittled down to 50.
After that, 30.
And whoever outlasts that final field of 30 will be crowned FedExCup champion.
That’s the gist of how the FedExCup Playoffs work these days.
There used to be a thing called “Starting Strokes,” but everyone hated it, so they got rid of it.
Frankly, people aren’t exactly in love with the playoff format in general, and the new TOUR leadership has already made plans to scrap it after 2027 in favor of match play.
We support this endeavor.
Apparently, FedEx—who has spent more than $1 billion investing in the PGA TOUR since 2007—does not.
There are rumors circulating this week that FedEx is considering pulling out when its current deal expires after 2027.
Future of FedEx’s PGA TOUR Deal in Question as Playoffs Begin
So, as we tee off the penultimate playing of the FedExCup Playoffs in their current form, who is most in danger of missing the top 50, seeing their season come to an end, and what do they need to do to keep going?
Here’s the MINIMUM FINISH required at the FedEx St. Jude Championship for players to play their way into the top 50, make the BMW and qualify for 2027 Signature Events.
51. Harris English: solo 31st
52. Max Homa: two-way T25
53. Sungjae Im: two-way T24
54. Jordan Spieth: solo… pic.twitter.com/HtWVe0uXuD— Paul Hodowanic (@PaulHodowanic) August 10, 2026
Key Stats for the St. Jude Championship
- Prioritize accuracy over raw distance. TPC Southwind favored accurate drivers last year, so lean toward players who consistently find fairways and avoid the big numbers rather than pure bombers.
- Ball-striking mattered more than putting. Approach play accounted for 37.6% of scoring variance, while off-the-tee jumped to 21.2%—well above the PGA TOUR average. Target strong Strokes Gained: Approach + Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee profiles.
- This is a course where talent tends to show up. The skill-separation slope was 1.34, meaning better players separated themselves significantly more than they do at a typical TOUR stop. Combined with the relatively low 2.48 scoring standard deviation, that points toward backing elite and favorite-tier players over lottery-ticket longshots.
The Details
Previous Winners
How to Watch
Featured Groups
The TOUR is doing something slightly different this week, with coverage available across both ESPN’s linear channels and ESPN+.
Frankly, it’s a little confusing.
→ You can read all about it here
Weekly Bets: St. Jude Championship
We’ve partnered with Keith Stewart at Read The Line to share his weekly golf betting picks with the Caddyshanks crew.
If you’re the type who enjoys breaking down matchups, spotting trends, and hunting for value, you’ll feel right at home in the RTL community.
Use code CADDYSHANKS2026 for 20% off.
Keith Stewart’s Picks
Sam Burns (+2200, DraftKings)
If there was ever a venue built for Sam Burns’ 2026 season, TPC Southwind is the place.
A fantastic southern scorer, Burns has five career PGA TOUR wins south of Fort Worth, Texas.
Bermuda Burns is back, and the combination of his excellent iron play, driver acumen, and TOUR-leading putting has Sam poised to take home career title No. 6.
Tom Kim (+5100, DraftKings)
In 2022, Tom Kim won four starts after earning his first PGA TOUR victory at the Wyndham Championship.
Now, four starts after his fourth TOUR win at the Genesis Scottish Open, Kim gets another accuracy-driven course that fits his game perfectly.
Sedgefield and Southwind are strong comparison courses, and Tom’s success in Greensboro should translate well to this TPC layout.
On a mission to make the TOUR Championship, Kim should continue scoring on venues where precision matters more than power.
Caddyshanks Picks
Patrick Cantlay (+3100, DraftKings)
Ole Patty Ice hasn’t found the winner’s circle in a while, but he has a history of playing well at Southwind—and an even better history of winning in the playoffs.
The last time we saw him was at the Rocket Classic, where he finished T8, so we know the form is there.
Hideki Matsuyama (+2900, DraftKings)
Well, I think I’ve picked Hideki four other times this year, and I have been dead wrong every single time.
That will not deter me from picking him again.
His recent form has been really good, and his course history at Southwind is even better.
He won here in 2024, and I think he can do it again.
For the third week in a row, an American under the age of 25 has won on the PGA TOUR.
Has that ever happened before?
It turns out that yes, it has—but only once.
Way back in 2017, Jordan Spieth, Xander Schauffele, Bryson DeChambeau, and Grayson Murray actually made it four weeks in a row.
Murray won the Barbasol Championship, which was played as an opposite-field event during The Open.
That group has gone on to collect seven major championships so far.
Maybe we should start sprinkling a few futures on Jackson Koivun, Michael Thorbjornsen, and Michael Brennan while we still can.
The Wyndham Championship
There must be something in the water at PGA TOUR U, because these kids are making birdies in bunches.
Yesterday, Michael Brennan made five birdies in a row on Nos. 4-8.
That stretch separated him from Beau Hossler, his closest pursuer, and combined with the 63 he shot on Saturday, it was enough to win him the tournament.
Brennan went on to birdie the 72nd hole and win by three strokes.
In the process, he vaulted himself inside the FedExCup top 50.
He was the only player to move into the top 50 from outside the bubble.
Jackson Koivun, who started the week at No. 70, remained there.
Brooks Koepka, Jason Day, and Keegan Bradley saw their seasons come to an end.
What’s Next?
The FedExCup Playoffs kick off this week with the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind.
FedEx St. Jude Championship Odds
- Scottie Scheffler: +450
- Rory McIlroy: +1200
- Xander Schauffele: +1800
- Sam Burns: +2000
- Tommy Fleetwood: +2000
- Cam Young: +2200
- Ludvig Åberg: +2200
- Matt Fitzpatrick: +2200
- Collin Morikawa: +2500
- Hideki Matsuyama: +2800
- Chris Gotterup: +3000
- Patrick Cantlay: +3000
- Viktor Hovland: +3000
Just like that, another PGA TOUR regular season has come and gone.
This week’s Wyndham Championship is the final event before the FedExCup Playoffs begin, and there is quite a bit on the line for some players.
The top dogs—guys like Scottie and Rory—can afford to take the week off. But only the top 70 players advance to the playoffs, which means there are always a handful of guys hovering just above or below that magic number.
We call them the Bubble Boys.
The FedExCup Playoffs may not carry the history or weight of the majors, but they still come with massive purses, valuable exemptions, and plenty of other perks.
That makes this week meaningful for the players, even though we all know nobody is going to ask them how many FedExCups they won when their careers are over.
This year, the list of guys on the bubble includes some notable names:
- Jackson Koivun
- Keegan Bradley
- Jason Day
- Brooks Koepka
- Tony Finau
Here’s what each player needs to do:
- Jackson Koivun basically needs to perform better than Mac Messnier, who is ranked 71st.
- Keegan Bradley needs a two-way tie for 38th or better.
- Jason Day needs a two-way tie for 12th or better.
- Brooks Koepka needs to finish solo fourth or better.
- Tony Finau needs a two-way tie for third or better.
Key Stats for the Wyndham Championship
- Prioritize putting and approach play. Strokes Gained: Putting has the strongest correlation with success here at 0.621, followed by Strokes Gained: Approach at 0.574.
- Accuracy matters far more than distance. Driving accuracy has a 0.336 correlation, while driving distance is nearly irrelevant at 0.034. Do not overvalue bombers this week.
- Target strong mid-iron players. More than 42% of approach shots come from 125–175 yards, making proximity and scoring performance from that range especially important.
The Details
Previous Winners
How to Watch
Featured Groups
ESPN+ will have featured-group coverage of the Wyndham Championship.
→ View all featured groups and tee times
Weekly Bets: Wyndham Championship
We’ve partnered with Keith Stewart at Read The Line to share his weekly golf betting picks with the Caddyshanks crew.
If you’re the type who enjoys breaking down matchups, spotting trends, and hunting for value, you’ll feel right at home in the RTL community.
Use code CADDYSHANKS2026 for 20% off.
Keith Stewart’s Picks
Ben Griffin (+3300, FanDuel)
Bounce back, Ben Griffin? You bet.
Four of the last seven Wyndham winners—and eight of the last 20—have strong Carolina ties.
In four starts at Sedgefield, Griffin has finished T11, T7, missed cut, and fourth. The key to Ben’s success at this event is twofold.
First, Griffin is a great Bermudagrass player. Ranked second in the field on Bermuda greens and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting, he has a serious edge.
The second is his approach play. Griffin is a master with a wedge in his hands on a positional layout where the driver is used less frequently.
Blades Brown (+6000, DraftKings)
There’s one more young star on the PGA TOUR ready for a breakout win, and that’s Blades Brown.
Brown is a scoring machine who already has six top-10 finishes across the Korn Ferry Tour and PGA TOUR this year. Two of those have come in his last two starts.
With only one finish worse than T22 in his last 11 tournaments, the consistency Blades has shown at 19 years old is extremely impressive.
If Gen Z is trending, Brown is definitely one of its generational players.
Caddyshanks Picks
Aaron Rai (+3100, DraftKings)
Rai won the PGA Championship back in May, finished 10th at the U.S. Open in June, and then missed the cut at both the Genesis Scottish Open and The Open.
He doesn’t exactly check the box for recent form, but he certainly checks the box for course fit.
He won here in 2024, and he is the most accurate driver in the field.
Brian Harman (+5900, DraftKings)
Harman hasn’t had the best year of his career, but he did have his best week of the season last week, so that’s something, right?
He is another accurate driver of the golf ball. While his approach play hasn’t been good enough overall this year, it has been strong on shorter approaches from the fairway.
He should have plenty of those opportunities on a shorter course this week.
Some new things, some old.
Detroit Golf Club is one of the old things.
The club was founded in 1899, and Donald Ross completed his two course designs in 1916—which is also the year roughly 85% of Congress was born, funny enough.
Last year, that old course underwent a renovation, with two notable changes:
- They changed the par from 72 to 70 by converting holes 7 and 17 from par 5s into long par 4s.
- They restored Ross’s original greens, which should hopefully challenge the players’ short games a bit more.
The Rocket Mortgage Classic itself is relatively new, as far as tournaments go, but Rocket Mortgage has announced that it will be ending its sponsorship after eight years.
That’s understandable, considering this tournament has largely been a dud due to weak fields, unknown winners, and soft scoring conditions.
But, funny enough, there’s another new wrinkle this year.
For whatever reason, 21 of the top 50 players decided to play this week, giving the newly renovated course its strongest field in tournament history.
Finally, the old stats might not matter, but here’s how Detroit Golf Club played last year, when the winning score was 22-under.
Key Stats for the Rocket Mortgage Classic
- Expect another birdie fest. Detroit Golf Club averaged 2.32 strokes under par per round, so prioritize elite birdie-makers and players who consistently gain strokes on easy courses.
- Lean toward distance over driving accuracy. The course favored bombers in 2025, suggesting longer hitters can attack the par 5s and leave themselves shorter approaches without being heavily punished off the tee.
- Approach play and putting should drive your card. Those two categories accounted for roughly 74% of the scoring variance, while the course produced less separation by overall skill than a typical TOUR stop. That makes hot iron players, strong putters, and longer-priced contenders more appealing.
The Details
Previous Winners
How to Watch
Featured Groups
PGA TOUR Studios is piloting an announcer-free stream for this week’s Rocket Classic. The stream will debut Thursday on PGA TOUR LIVE on ESPN+ and cover all four rounds.
Weekly Bets: Rocket Mortgage Classic
We’ve partnered with Keith Stewart at Read The Line to share his weekly golf betting picks with the Caddyshanks crew.
If you’re the type who enjoys breaking down matchups, spotting trends, and hunting for value, you’ll feel right at home in the RTL community.
Use code CADDYSHANKS2026 for 20% off.
Keith Stewart’s Picks
Si Woo Kim (+2200, FanDuel)
At some point, Si Woo Kim will be rewarded for all his exceptional play.
Coming off back-to-back top 10s across the Atlantic, Kim has gained strokes on the field tee to green in 18 of 20 starts—and in each of his last seven.
He ranks first in the field on approach over the last 20 rounds and sixth in birdies or better percentage, so Si Woo will score. The new greens should only increase his advantage.
His proximity to the hole from both short and long range is exemplary, and his around-the-green acumen helps him save shots when necessary.
With four top 10s in his last six starts, this shootout has Si Woo written all over it.
Davis Thompson (+6100, DraftKings)
Fresh off a T7 at the 3M Open, Davis Thompson fits the mold of a strong Rocket Classic contender.
Thompson gained 11 strokes on the field tee to green in Minnesota. A past champion at the John Deere Classic, Davis has already proven that he can win a regular-season event.
Generally a below-average putter on TOUR, Thompson has gained strokes on the greens throughout his starts at Detroit Golf Club.
In four appearances, Davis has gained an average of five total strokes on the field and finished runner-up here in 2024.
Caddyshanks Picks
Hideki Matsuyama (+3300, DraftKings)
Accuracy with the driver can sometimes hold Hideki back, but he won’t need it as much this week.
Plus, he’s hot right now. His last three finishes were T14, T14, and T3.
Akshay Bhatia (+4500, DraftKings)
Akshay hasn’t won since his triumph at the AP Invitational, but his strokes gained numbers this season—particularly with the putter—are among the best in the field.
Great putting is a superpower.
Yesterday, Jackson Koivun won the 3M Open in dominant fashion at the ripe old age of 21.
In the process, he held off a Sunday charge from Scottie Scheffler, set the tournament scoring record at 25-under, and joined a very short list of the youngest winners in PGA TOUR history.
It was an incredible performance, and golf social media has been on fire talking about him.
A reminder that @DataGolf had Koivun ranked as their best amateur golfer since 2010 ahead of some massive, massive names.
Now a win by 3 shots in his 3rd pro start as a 21 year old.
And by 5 shots over everyone that isn’t the number one player in the world.
SHEESH. pic.twitter.com/f9rXI3fto1
— No Laying Up (@NoLayingUp) July 26, 2026
If you’re a casual golf fan, you’d be forgiven for thinking he’s already been anointed as the next “chosen one.”
The truth is, nobody knows.
Sports fans love fortune telling. We love believing we can spot greatness before everyone else. Sometimes we can.
If you watched Derrick Henry run over high school defenders, you knew he was going pro one day. LeBron James was on national television before he could legally buy a lottery ticket. Bryce Harper landed on the cover of Sports Illustrated at 16.
But there are plenty of times when fans and prognosticators get it wrong.
For every LeBron, there’s a Greg Oden. For every Bryce Harper, there’s a Todd Marinovich. For every can’t-miss prospect who becomes exactly what everyone expected, there are dozens who looked every bit as inevitable… until they weren’t.
Golf is no different.
Peter Uihlein was the No. 1 amateur in the world for longer than several eventual PGA TOUR winners. After winning the U.S. Amateur in 2010, many people thought he was the next great American star.
He’s never won on the PGA TOUR.
Matthew Wolff looked destined to become one of the game’s biggest names after winning on TOUR at 20 and finishing runner-up in both the U.S. Open and PGA Championship before turning 22.
Today, he’s trying to rebuild his career.
Even Jordan Spieth reminds us how dangerous expectations can be, to a certain degree.
Spieth won on the PGA TOUR at 19. By 23, he had already won three majors.
At the time, it felt almost impossible that he’d go through the next decade without adding another one.
Yet here we are.
Today is Spieth’s 33rd birthday, and those three majors are still the only ones on his résumé.
Golf has a funny way of humbling predictions. So, we won’t make any about Jackson Koivun.
Jackson Koivun might become the next Tiger Woods.
He might become the next Jordan Spieth.
He might become the next Peter Uihlein.
Or he might carve out an entirely different career that none of us could possibly predict today.
The only thing we know for sure is this:
Winning a PGA TOUR event at 21 while staring down Scottie Scheffler is ridiculously impressive.
What’s Next?
The Rocket Mortgage Classic, which has a loaded field this year.
Rocket Mortgage Classic Odds
- Cameron Young (+1000)
- Xander Schauffele (+1650)
- Chris Gotterup (+1800)
- Si Woo Kim (+1850)
- Wyndham Clark (+1850)
- Patrick Cantlay (+2150)
- Jackson Koivun (+2300)
- Russell Henley (+2400)
- Ben Griffin (+2800)
- J.J. Spaun (+3400)
Quick 3M Open Preview
TPC Twin Cities is a far cry from the links golf we watched over the last two weeks, but they’re calling for some wind, and there is water on 15 of the 18 holes, so maybe the course will put up a little fight. With that being said, the wide fairways and benign rough set this course up to be a bit of a birdie fest, and it usually benefits the accurate drivers. Last year, Kurt Kitayama won with a score of 23-under. Right now, Vegas has the winning score line set at 261.5, which gives you an indication that scoring will likely end up in the 15- to 20-under range this year. Typically, the field for the 3M Open isn’t so top-heavy, but this year the world No. 1 is competing, and the odds reflect the disparity in talent. Scottie’s odds are just +250 to win, which, as you already know, is gross. Those are peak Tiger odds, despite the fact that he’s only won once this year. The next closest player on the odds board is Kurt Kitayama at +2500, but recent winner Tom Kim, along with major champions Hideki Matsuyama, Gary Woodland, and Lucas Glover, highlight the field.Key Stats For The 3M Open
- Prioritize accurate drivers over bombers. TPC Twin Cities has consistently favored players who keep the ball in play, and 2025 strongly rewarded driving accuracy. With water lurking throughout the course, avoiding penalty strokes is often more valuable than chasing extra distance.
- Target elite iron players. Nearly 40% of the scoring separation at TPC Twin Cities comes from approach play, making Strokes Gained: Approach one of the most predictive stats. Golfers flushing their irons tend to separate themselves here.
- Expect a birdie fest, not a survival test. TPC Twin Cities routinely plays well under par, and calm conditions can push winning scores into the 20-under range. Lean toward players with high Birdie or Better rates who can stay aggressive for four straight days.
The Details
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Weekly Bets: 3M Open
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