Fifty golfers have made the 284-mile trek from Memphis to St. Louis to compete in this week’s BMW Championship.

The host course, Bellerive Country Club, was designed by Robert Trent Jones and is known to be a bit of a brute.

As a result, it even has its own nickname: The Green Monster of Ladue.

Bellerive has hosted three major championships—the 1965 U.S. Open, where Gary Player completed the career Grand Slam; the 1992 PGA Championship, won by Nick Price; and the 2018 PGA Championship.

2018 was the last time golf fans saw this course, and it was a doozy.

If you recall, that PGA Championship was won by some guy named Brooks Koepka, while some other guy named Tiger Woods tried to chase him down with a 64 on Sunday.

Koepka answered with a 66 and took home the hardware.

Neither of them is in the field this week, eight years later, but man, Tiger’s highlights from that final round are still fun to watch.

 


Brooks won with a score of 16-under that year.

This week, the books are projecting the winning score to land around 262, which would be 18-under since Bellerive will play as a par 70 for these guys—and a par 72 for the rest of us.

Moving from the past to the present, the top 30 in the FedExCup standings after this week will advance to the TOUR Championship at East Lake.

Read: The Minimum Finish Required for Each Player to Earn a Spot in the TOUR Championship

 

Key Stats for the BMW Championship

Based on 2018 PGA Championship data*

  • Prioritize bombers. Bellerive strongly favored longer hitters in 2018, making driving distance and power a much more important filter than accuracy off the tee.
  • Approach play was the biggest separator. Strokes Gained: Approach accounted for 41.7% of scoring variance, well above the TOUR average of 34.9%. Look for players combining length with elite iron play.
  • Don’t over-weight putting or short game. Putting and around-the-green play accounted for less scoring variance than normal. With a 1.05 skill slope, better players also held a modest advantage—pointing toward big-name, high-end ball strikers rather than short-game specialists or pure longshots.

 

The Details

Previous Winners

How to Watch

Featured Groups

ESPN+ has featured-group coverage of the BMW Championship.

→ View all featured groups and tee times here

Weekly Bets: BMW Championship

We’ve partnered with Keith Stewart at Read The Line to share his weekly golf betting picks with the Caddyshanks crew.

If you’re the type who enjoys breaking down matchups, spotting trends, and hunting for value, you’ll feel right at home in the RTL community.

Use code CADDYSHANKS2026 for 20% off.

Keith Stewart’s Picks

Viktor Hovland (+3000, FanDuel)

If anyone can compete with Scottie Scheffler on approach, it is Viktor Hovland.

A proven winner at the BMW Championship in 2023 on a course that draws strong comparisons to Olympia Fields, I’m backing an aggressive player who fell out of contention in Memphis because the driver went awry.

Bellerive gives him a little more room off the tee, and I love the bounce-back potential for the 2023 FedExCup champion.

Hovland ranks fifth in the field on approach over the last few events and fourth in Birdies or Better Percentage.

Firepower, elite iron play, and the overall trend—I’m all in.

Wyndham Clark (+3300, DraftKings)

There’s a ton of talk surrounding Jake Knapp this week.

I’ll take the shorter odds and, in my opinion, a better chance at winning with Wyndham Clark.

Why?

Very few players have beaten the world No. 1 head-to-head this year, and Clark did it at the CJ Cup.

I also like TPC Craig Ranch as a comparison course—albeit with less scoring at Bellerive—and Clark’s approach play this season separates him from many of the other driver-and-putter-heavy players.

Coming off a fifth-place finish at the St. Jude, if scoring and power are what we need this week, Wyndham can win.

Caddyshanks Picks

Hideki Matsuyama (+3000, DraftKings)

I have a friend who reads this newsletter every week just for the picks, and he constantly makes fun of me for how often I pick Hideki.

I don’t care one bit.

He has four top-10 finishes in his last four starts.

That is the definition of knocking on the door.

Si Woo Kim (+2700, DraftKings)

Si Woo has played so well all season but hasn’t been able to cash in.

Besides Scottie, Si Woo has the most top-10 finishes this season.

Can he—or Hideki—finally get one across the finish line?

Scottie Scheffler (+350, DraftKings)

Wouldn’t you know it?

Last week was the first week I didn’t write about the “Bet Scottie Every Week” strategy—which has not exactly been a profitable endeavor—and then he goes out and wins.

He’ll probably go back-to-back now.

The FedExCup Playoffs have arrived, and only the top 70 players in the standings remain to compete for massive purses and plenty of other perks.

After this week, that number gets whittled down to 50.

After that, 30.

And whoever outlasts that final field of 30 will be crowned FedExCup champion.

That’s the gist of how the FedExCup Playoffs work these days.

There used to be a thing called “Starting Strokes,” but everyone hated it, so they got rid of it.

Frankly, people aren’t exactly in love with the playoff format in general, and the new TOUR leadership has already made plans to scrap it after 2027 in favor of match play.

We support this endeavor.

Apparently, FedEx—who has spent more than $1 billion investing in the PGA TOUR since 2007—does not.

There are rumors circulating this week that FedEx is considering pulling out when its current deal expires after 2027.

Future of FedEx’s PGA TOUR Deal in Question as Playoffs Begin

So, as we tee off the penultimate playing of the FedExCup Playoffs in their current form, who is most in danger of missing the top 50, seeing their season come to an end, and what do they need to do to keep going?

Key Stats for the St. Jude Championship

  • Prioritize accuracy over raw distance. TPC Southwind favored accurate drivers last year, so lean toward players who consistently find fairways and avoid the big numbers rather than pure bombers.
  • Ball-striking mattered more than putting. Approach play accounted for 37.6% of scoring variance, while off-the-tee jumped to 21.2%—well above the PGA TOUR average. Target strong Strokes Gained: Approach + Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee profiles.
  • This is a course where talent tends to show up. The skill-separation slope was 1.34, meaning better players separated themselves significantly more than they do at a typical TOUR stop. Combined with the relatively low 2.48 scoring standard deviation, that points toward backing elite and favorite-tier players over lottery-ticket longshots.

 

The Details

Previous Winners

How to Watch

Featured Groups

The TOUR is doing something slightly different this week, with coverage available across both ESPN’s linear channels and ESPN+.

Frankly, it’s a little confusing.

→ You can read all about it here

Weekly Bets: St. Jude Championship

We’ve partnered with Keith Stewart at Read The Line to share his weekly golf betting picks with the Caddyshanks crew.

If you’re the type who enjoys breaking down matchups, spotting trends, and hunting for value, you’ll feel right at home in the RTL community.

Use code CADDYSHANKS2026 for 20% off.

Keith Stewart’s Picks

 

Sam Burns (+2200, DraftKings)

If there was ever a venue built for Sam Burns’ 2026 season, TPC Southwind is the place.

A fantastic southern scorer, Burns has five career PGA TOUR wins south of Fort Worth, Texas.

Bermuda Burns is back, and the combination of his excellent iron play, driver acumen, and TOUR-leading putting has Sam poised to take home career title No. 6.

 

Tom Kim (+5100, DraftKings)

In 2022, Tom Kim won four starts after earning his first PGA TOUR victory at the Wyndham Championship.

Now, four starts after his fourth TOUR win at the Genesis Scottish Open, Kim gets another accuracy-driven course that fits his game perfectly.

Sedgefield and Southwind are strong comparison courses, and Tom’s success in Greensboro should translate well to this TPC layout.

On a mission to make the TOUR Championship, Kim should continue scoring on venues where precision matters more than power.

 

Caddyshanks Picks

 

Patrick Cantlay (+3100, DraftKings)

Ole Patty Ice hasn’t found the winner’s circle in a while, but he has a history of playing well at Southwind—and an even better history of winning in the playoffs.

The last time we saw him was at the Rocket Classic, where he finished T8, so we know the form is there.

 

Hideki Matsuyama (+2900, DraftKings)

Well, I think I’ve picked Hideki four other times this year, and I have been dead wrong every single time.

That will not deter me from picking him again.

His recent form has been really good, and his course history at Southwind is even better.

He won here in 2024, and I think he can do it again.

Attention shoppers!

For the third time in five years, RTL predicts the winner of the ShopRite LPGA.

Although it is only a three -day event, 19-1 still pays! Celine Boutier played well early on a very windy Saturday, putting herself in position for a Sunday charge. A final round 66 with six birdies and a closing 32 on the back nine gave France another big win this weekend. I’m not sure if Boutier is a big PSG fan, but both can certainly celebrate along with our readers.

From the Atlantic Ocean, the LPGA travels to the West Coast and Pacific Palisades,to be exact, for the 81st United States Women’s Open. A field of 156 players will compete for a $12+ million purse and a $2+ million first-place prize. Worth more than that medal the USGA gives you, a win also includes a 10–year exemption into the women’s national championship. Riviera Country Club is the seventeenth venue to host the US Women’s Open since the first championship in 1946. Maja Stark is our defending champion. Curious about her chances to successfully defend, the last repeat winner was Karrie Webb in 2001. Prior to Webb, Annika Sorenstam did it in 1995 and 1996. Betsy King, Hollis Stacy, Susie Berning, Donna Caponi, and Mickey Wright have all successfully defended their national titles. Seven in total, that’s a bunch for 80 years! The last debutant to win was A Lim Kim in 2020.

All top 10 in the Rolex World Rankings are competing. In fact, the first 46 on the Rolex board are in the field. What most would consider the most prestigious women’s major championship, many players have their sights set on playing out their own Hollywood ending…

“Riv“

 

For the fourth time in its history, and the first time for the women’s national championship, Riviera Country Club plays host to the USGA. Best known for the PGA TOUR’s Genesis Invitational in February, in the coming years, Riviera will also host the 2028 Olympics and the Men’s US Open in 2031. A wonderful George Thomas track (1927), “The Riv,” will test all aspects of a player’s game. The par 71 scorecard stretches 6,699 yards for the US Women’s Open. Fifty-eight perfectly placed bunkers provide the only penalty areas, as there are no water holes on this Pacific Palisades paradise. A wonderful set of winding fairways gives way to severalincredible green complexes. I know the venue moves annually, but the USGA has a scoring goal in mind for each championship. The average winning score of this open event is 7.6 under par over the last decade. We have seen three playoffs to decide the winner in that time frame, and three other US Women’s Opens played in the state of California during those 10 years as well.

Course Conditions, Weather, Wind

 

The weather forecast is amazing for the world’s best women. The temperature should climb to low 70s each afternoon around the same time that wind kicks up off the Pacific Ocean. The breeze should blow around 10-12 mph each day around 3:00 pm PT from the SSW. No rain is in the forecast for the tournament week. The rain gauge has been empty the last few months in Los Angeles. The region is five inches behind for total rain YTD. If you remember the Genesis in February, then you know how wet the course was for the men. This version will make the USGA happy as they can firm up Thomas’ track as much as they want!

What will firm conditions mean for the field of LPGA, LET, and amateur stars? It is not often that the LPGA competes on a regular PGA TOUR course. We have plenty of player data from each TOUR event, but how does that apply to the women’s game? That’s the ultimate RTL benefit of covering both tours. The average green size at Riviera is 7,500 sq/ft, and those putting surfaces are covered in a typical California Poa Annua. Surrounding those intricate greens are Kikuyu rough and collars. The approaches and fairways are Kikuyu as well. Will the introduction of Kikuyu grass to the LPGA tour make a big difference? It might, more native to Australia, pay attention to those ladies coming from down under, as they are far more familiar with this type of grass. The fairways all seem to bend at Riviera. Thomas was an expert at keeping players off kilter. As much as most fans think of the Riviera CC clubhouse sitting high above the eighteenth green, the course is quite flat. The first tee shot and final hole have some significant terrain changes, but overall, Riviera is more about left to right than up and down.

Will Riviera give us a Hollywood ending? The LPGA has played 10 events in the Los Angeles region since RTL started covering the tour in 2022. There have been some very interesting trends in that time. One player in particular loves LA, and we have won with her already this year! As always, when it comes to handicapping the world’s best women, we will dive deeper than the analytics. I have some historic notes from each of those events and the ability to compare how LPGA skills will apply to an annual PGA TOUR venue.

How to win?

The US Women’s Open is truly a unique event on the LPGA schedule. Unlike any other tournament the world’s best women play, this one rewards THE best ball strikers. The last eight Opens were captured by queens of off-the-tee power and around the green grace. Their approach ability was consistently sharp, and the putter kept them out of trouble. Saso (twice), Stark, Ariya Jutanugarn, Corpuz, and Minjee Lee were all at the height of their impact ability when they took this title home. To handicap this field, we must pay attention to the best ball strikers. Too many times we have gotten caught up in the putter or wedge, and what this event always comes down to is the elite OTT and APP players. Take that trend and multiply it by five as we head to one of the most difficult tests on the West Coast for professional golf.

Keep it out of the Kikuyu grass. That mandate starts off the tee. Many LPGA Official Scorecards list one yardage, and then it plays shorter each day. The USGA does not subscribe to that policy. They make it tough for these women, and that’s the first reason why you need the best ball strikers. It is going to play long even with the firm conditions. Longer than a weekly LPGA event. Does this favor Jeeno and Nelly? Of course it does, and it will make it even harder to beat them. Then again, they are the two best female players on the planet by a wide margin. Is it tough to beat Scottie Scheffler? Yes! I like Total Driving for this situation. Who are the longest and most accurate players OTT. We know from our on-site Genesis coverage that Riviera favors a slight left-to-right ball flight. A power fade for righties is the ideal trajectory.

Riv has above-average-sized greens at 7,500 sq/ft. Covered in that Pacific Poa Annua, they will putt much smoother than what we always see in February. Much like one of Riviera’s great comp courses, Augusta National, it is tough to gain a ton of strokes on the greens. I believe an average putter can win this week. I would (of course) rather run with a great putter, but the priority is going to be ball striking over the flatstick. These larger-than-average targets will require expert proximity to have a chance to score. Approach play from the fairway is key. Kikuyu fairways area different surface to play from. The better iron players will adjust quicker to the new turf. Pickers over diggers, with firm conditions, we will be taking the best women with a shallow angle of attack. No pelts, please; adjustments from the Kikuyu rough are also going to be needed. Riviera winners always have a great week with their irons, and this National Championship will be no different.

PGA TOUR pros hit the greens less than 60% of the time at Riviera. The TOUR average is 66%. Compound the challenge with firm conditions, and here is where the secret sauce to win the US Open is hidden: short game. Riviera has some of the most difficult bunkers on the PGA TOUR. They are deep and flat at the bottom. It takes a ton of speed and confidence to hit par–saving shots from them. Then, the closely mown or long Kikuyu is another problem. These women are going to miss GIRs, and very few of the elite players are great around the green. Some of the best ball strikers are extremely poor at pitching and chipping. The ability to play from tee TO green is imperative. The best ARG competitors in this field of 156 players have a measurable edge on their opponents. The average par 4 is over 400 yards; scrambling is going to be a factor.

The firm conditions and the USGA’s fascination with even par scores do scare me. If the navy jackets make this track too firm, luck may play a part in deciding this major championship. If that’s the case, our best chance to win falls with the women on our outright list. Besides the four basic strokes gained categories, par 4 scoring,and birdie to bogey ratio are key. Straight bogey avoidance also helps us determine the best par savers. Riviera is a well-rounded test, and one where a majority of the women will not break par. That’s good news, because it eliminates several weekly contenders because they lack the complete list of skills needed to win.

LPGA – Free Picks

 

Hannah Green (+1800 DraftKings)

If you have followed the LPGA the last four years, then you know there is only one LA Woman, and that is Hannah Green. Green has won three of the last four LA Opens. Two of which were played at Wilshire Country Club in Los Angeles proper. A classic design and wonderful comp course for Riviera, Hannah also has two wins in 2026. Need another reason besides Green’s great ball striking and short game? How about kikuyu grass? Green is one of the few players who is from Australia and has experience on Riviera’s unique turf.

 

Charley Hull (+4500 Bet Rivers)

If any player on the LPGA tour was destined to become a Hollywood star, it would be Charley Hull. Hull also has two top 10s at nearby Wilshire Country Club in the LA Open and three straight top 20s in the US Open. Three years ago, Charley finished runner-up at Pebble Beach in the national championship. Fifteenth at Aramco and tenth at the Chevron Championship, Hull knows how to prepare for the big stage. A win earlier this year on the LET, when the bright lights of Hollywood shine, Charley can capture this championship.