Attention shoppers!
For the third time in five years, RTL predicts the winner of the ShopRite LPGA.
Although it is only a three -day event, 19-1 still pays! Celine Boutier played well early on a very windy Saturday, putting herself in position for a Sunday charge. A final round 66 with six birdies and a closing 32 on the back nine gave France another big win this weekend. I’m not sure if Boutier is a big PSG fan, but both can certainly celebrate along with our readers.
From the Atlantic Ocean, the LPGA travels to the West Coast and Pacific Palisades,to be exact, for the 81st United States Women’s Open. A field of 156 players will compete for a $12+ million purse and a $2+ million first-place prize. Worth more than that medal the USGA gives you, a win also includes a 10–year exemption into the women’s national championship. Riviera Country Club is the seventeenth venue to host the US Women’s Open since the first championship in 1946. Maja Stark is our defending champion. Curious about her chances to successfully defend, the last repeat winner was Karrie Webb in 2001. Prior to Webb, Annika Sorenstam did it in 1995 and 1996. Betsy King, Hollis Stacy, Susie Berning, Donna Caponi, and Mickey Wright have all successfully defended their national titles. Seven in total, that’s a bunch for 80 years! The last debutant to win was A Lim Kim in 2020.
All top 10 in the Rolex World Rankings are competing. In fact, the first 46 on the Rolex board are in the field. What most would consider the most prestigious women’s major championship, many players have their sights set on playing out their own Hollywood ending…
“Riv“
For the fourth time in its history, and the first time for the women’s national championship, Riviera Country Club plays host to the USGA. Best known for the PGA TOUR’s Genesis Invitational in February, in the coming years, Riviera will also host the 2028 Olympics and the Men’s US Open in 2031. A wonderful George Thomas track (1927), “The Riv,” will test all aspects of a player’s game. The par 71 scorecard stretches 6,699 yards for the US Women’s Open. Fifty-eight perfectly placed bunkers provide the only penalty areas, as there are no water holes on this Pacific Palisades paradise. A wonderful set of winding fairways gives way to severalincredible green complexes. I know the venue moves annually, but the USGA has a scoring goal in mind for each championship. The average winning score of this open event is 7.6 under par over the last decade. We have seen three playoffs to decide the winner in that time frame, and three other US Women’s Opens played in the state of California during those 10 years as well.
Course Conditions, Weather, Wind
The weather forecast is amazing for the world’s best women. The temperature should climb to low 70s each afternoon around the same time that wind kicks up off the Pacific Ocean. The breeze should blow around 10-12 mph each day around 3:00 pm PT from the SSW. No rain is in the forecast for the tournament week. The rain gauge has been empty the last few months in Los Angeles. The region is five inches behind for total rain YTD. If you remember the Genesis in February, then you know how wet the course was for the men. This version will make the USGA happy as they can firm up Thomas’ track as much as they want!
What will firm conditions mean for the field of LPGA, LET, and amateur stars? It is not often that the LPGA competes on a regular PGA TOUR course. We have plenty of player data from each TOUR event, but how does that apply to the women’s game? That’s the ultimate RTL benefit of covering both tours. The average green size at Riviera is 7,500 sq/ft, and those putting surfaces are covered in a typical California Poa Annua. Surrounding those intricate greens are Kikuyu rough and collars. The approaches and fairways are Kikuyu as well. Will the introduction of Kikuyu grass to the LPGA tour make a big difference? It might, more native to Australia, pay attention to those ladies coming from down under, as they are far more familiar with this type of grass. The fairways all seem to bend at Riviera. Thomas was an expert at keeping players off kilter. As much as most fans think of the Riviera CC clubhouse sitting high above the eighteenth green, the course is quite flat. The first tee shot and final hole have some significant terrain changes, but overall, Riviera is more about left to right than up and down.
Will Riviera give us a Hollywood ending? The LPGA has played 10 events in the Los Angeles region since RTL started covering the tour in 2022. There have been some very interesting trends in that time. One player in particular loves LA, and we have won with her already this year! As always, when it comes to handicapping the world’s best women, we will dive deeper than the analytics. I have some historic notes from each of those events and the ability to compare how LPGA skills will apply to an annual PGA TOUR venue.
How to win?
The US Women’s Open is truly a unique event on the LPGA schedule. Unlike any other tournament the world’s best women play, this one rewards THE best ball strikers. The last eight Opens were captured by queens of off-the-tee power and around the green grace. Their approach ability was consistently sharp, and the putter kept them out of trouble. Saso (twice), Stark, Ariya Jutanugarn, Corpuz, and Minjee Lee were all at the height of their impact ability when they took this title home. To handicap this field, we must pay attention to the best ball strikers. Too many times we have gotten caught up in the putter or wedge, and what this event always comes down to is the elite OTT and APP players. Take that trend and multiply it by five as we head to one of the most difficult tests on the West Coast for professional golf.
Keep it out of the Kikuyu grass. That mandate starts off the tee. Many LPGA Official Scorecards list one yardage, and then it plays shorter each day. The USGA does not subscribe to that policy. They make it tough for these women, and that’s the first reason why you need the best ball strikers. It is going to play long even with the firm conditions. Longer than a weekly LPGA event. Does this favor Jeeno and Nelly? Of course it does, and it will make it even harder to beat them. Then again, they are the two best female players on the planet by a wide margin. Is it tough to beat Scottie Scheffler? Yes! I like Total Driving for this situation. Who are the longest and most accurate players OTT. We know from our on-site Genesis coverage that Riviera favors a slight left-to-right ball flight. A power fade for righties is the ideal trajectory.
Riv has above-average-sized greens at 7,500 sq/ft. Covered in that Pacific Poa Annua, they will putt much smoother than what we always see in February. Much like one of Riviera’s great comp courses, Augusta National, it is tough to gain a ton of strokes on the greens. I believe an average putter can win this week. I would (of course) rather run with a great putter, but the priority is going to be ball striking over the flatstick. These larger-than-average targets will require expert proximity to have a chance to score. Approach play from the fairway is key. Kikuyu fairways area different surface to play from. The better iron players will adjust quicker to the new turf. Pickers over diggers, with firm conditions, we will be taking the best women with a shallow angle of attack. No pelts, please; adjustments from the Kikuyu rough are also going to be needed. Riviera winners always have a great week with their irons, and this National Championship will be no different.
PGA TOUR pros hit the greens less than 60% of the time at Riviera. The TOUR average is 66%. Compound the challenge with firm conditions, and here is where the secret sauce to win the US Open is hidden: short game. Riviera has some of the most difficult bunkers on the PGA TOUR. They are deep and flat at the bottom. It takes a ton of speed and confidence to hit par–saving shots from them. Then, the closely mown or long Kikuyu is another problem. These women are going to miss GIRs, and very few of the elite players are great around the green. Some of the best ball strikers are extremely poor at pitching and chipping. The ability to play from tee TO green is imperative. The best ARG competitors in this field of 156 players have a measurable edge on their opponents. The average par 4 is over 400 yards; scrambling is going to be a factor.
The firm conditions and the USGA’s fascination with even par scores do scare me. If the navy jackets make this track too firm, luck may play a part in deciding this major championship. If that’s the case, our best chance to win falls with the women on our outright list. Besides the four basic strokes gained categories, par 4 scoring,and birdie to bogey ratio are key. Straight bogey avoidance also helps us determine the best par savers. Riviera is a well-rounded test, and one where a majority of the women will not break par. That’s good news, because it eliminates several weekly contenders because they lack the complete list of skills needed to win.
LPGA – Free Picks
Hannah Green (+1800 DraftKings)
If you have followed the LPGA the last four years, then you know there is only one LA Woman, and that is Hannah Green. Green has won three of the last four LA Opens. Two of which were played at Wilshire Country Club in Los Angeles proper. A classic design and wonderful comp course for Riviera, Hannah also has two wins in 2026. Need another reason besides Green’s great ball striking and short game? How about kikuyu grass? Green is one of the few players who is from Australia and has experience on Riviera’s unique turf.
Charley Hull (+4500 Bet Rivers)
If any player on the LPGA tour was destined to become a Hollywood star, it would be Charley Hull. Hull also has two top 10s at nearby Wilshire Country Club in the LA Open and three straight top 20s in the US Open. Three years ago, Charley finished runner-up at Pebble Beach in the national championship. Fifteenth at Aramco and tenth at the Chevron Championship, Hull knows how to prepare for the big stage. A win earlier this year on the LET, when the bright lights of Hollywood shine, Charley can capture this championship.
