Last week, we had a birdie-fest.
This week, we should have something more challenging (depending on the weather).
The host venue this week, Colonial, has a rich history. Ben Hogan won five times here, and it’s the longest running tournament held at the same venue on TOUR.
They’ve been playing here for 80 years, yet since Hogan’s time, no one has ever won back-to-back. He did it twice, by the way.
Secondly, Colonial is narrow, with small greens – it’s not a bombers course.
Now, I am no golf course architecture expert, but I’ve noticed a theme.
At courses like Riviera, Harbour Town, and Colonial, all of the sudden how far the pros hit the ball doesn’t matter as much, and the golf seems to be way more enjoyable to watch.
What do those courses have in common?
They were all built before 1950, they are all old-school, strategic “shot-maker” courses that reward precision over power. They emphasize placing tee shots in the right spots, controlling approach angles, and hitting accurate irons into smaller or well-protected greens.
Here are the key stats for Colonial:
- Prioritize elite iron players and putters. The two strongest within-event correlations with SG Total are SG Putting at 0.648 and SG Approach at 0.610, well ahead of off-the-tee and around-the-green. For betting, that points toward players gaining consistently on approach who also have a credible putting spike in their profile.
- Build around the 125–175 yard approach window. The biggest approach buckets are 125–150 yards: 20.1% and 150–175 yards: 20.9%, so roughly 41% of approaches come from those two ranges alone. Proximity and scoring from short-to-mid irons should matter more here than generic long-iron or wedge-only splits.
- Don’t overrate driving accuracy by itself. Colonial is narrow, with 29.9-yard fairways and only 54.7% driving accuracy, but the correlation of accuracy to SG Total is just 0.169, while distance is 0.289 and total SG Off the Tee is 0.444. The betting takeaway: look for controlled drivers who can gain off the tee without being reckless, but don’t automatically downgrade longer players just because they miss fairways.
The Details
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Weekly Bets: 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
We’ve partnered with Keith Stewart at Read The Line to share his weekly golf betting picks with the Caddyshanks crew. If you’re the type who enjoys breaking down matchups, spotting trends, and hunting for value, you’ll feel right at home in the RTL community.
Use code CADDYSHANKS2026 for 20% OFF.
Keith Stewart’s Picks
Rickie Fowler (+2400 DraftKings)
Rickie Fowler has three top 10s in his last four starts. Rickie finished T60 at Aronimink because of his putter. Those greens are the toughest these guys will see all year on TOUR. All other aspects of Fowler’s game have been firing for the better part of 2026. He tied sixth and T16 in two of his last three starts at Colonial. It’s time for Fowler to finish one off. Gaining almost six strokes on average against the field at Hogan’s home over his last three trips to Fort Worth, Rickie won’t be the only Oklahoma guy winning in Texas this week.
Taylor Moore (+9400 DraftKings)
Innisbrook’s Copperhead course is a great comp venue for Colonial Country Club. Taylor Moore won the Valspar Championship (2023) and is coming off four straight top-40 finishes. Each result has improved by the week: T39-T20-T17-T14. Moore is a great close-range scorer who can drive the golf ball. When his iron game gets going, that’s when Taylor can win. Gaining seven strokes on the field in his last two starts and trending up for two months, I expect a little more from Taylor this week.
Caddyshanks Picks
Justin Thomas (+1800 Fanduel)
The last time we saw JT he was playing lights out on Sunday at Aronimink. Week by week, he’s been returning to major championship form. We like him to not only compete this week, but also at the two remaining majors this year.
Sungjae Im (+3500 Fanduel)
I am going with Sungjae in back-to-back weeks. He’s got 3 top 10’s this season, he’s finished Top 15 at Colonial three different times. It’s also worth noting that he was one of a handful of guys to go super-low last week, with a 61 in the 2nd round.
Based on the news at the top of the email, I think it’s safe to say that tournaments like the CJ Cup Byron Nelson will be going the way of the Dodo Bird.
There’s a handful of them that come to mind, who currently occupy unwanted space in the TOUR’s schedule, pull weak fields, and are typically birdie-fests.
These events lack juice and draw weak viewership numbers.
So, it seems that the TOUR, whos CEO Brian Rolapp came from the NFL, are intent on embracing a scarcity model, which, in theory, should allow them to sell partnerships at a premium.
Their bet is that quality is better than volume.
And with that intro, we bring you to McKinney, Texas, just outside of Dallas, where Scottie Scheffler leads a field that includes only about three other people in the Top 50 of OWGR.
Scottie shot 31-under last year. His odds to win this year are +175, which is… gross.
In an effort to make the CJ Cup less of a birdie-fest, they have made all of the greens smaller over the last year.
We will see how that holds up.
The Details
Previous Winners
How To Watch
Featured Groups:
You can find all of the tee times and featured groups here.
Weekly Bets: 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
We’ve partnered with Keith Stewart at Read The Line to share his weekly golf betting picks with the Caddyshanks crew. If you’re the type who enjoys breaking down matchups, spotting trends, and hunting for value, you’ll feel right at home in the RTL community.
Use code CADDYSHANKS2026 to redeem.
Keith Stewart’s Picks
Jordan Spieth (+2000 DraftKings)
In four starts at TPC Craig Ranch, Jordan Spieth has finished T9, 2, MC, and 4. I guess Spieth likes sleeping in his own bed! A top 20 at the PGA Championship and a brief lead in Miami. Spieth has seven top 25s in 13 starts this season. Those results still seem to be missing a piece of Spieth’s game. In 2026, the irons have been great at times. The driver has been excellent recently, and nobody is better with a wedge. If Jordan wins again, the most likely spot is a course where he is extremely comfortable, and in a region he knows infinitely well.
Eric Cole (+8000 DraftKings)
In his last three events, Eric Cole has finished T14, T6, and T6 at Myrtle Beach. Cole’s an incredible iron player and putter. In two starts at TPC Craig Ranch, Eric has finished T23 and T5. Eric can score, and on a course with little pressure off the tee, he can just get it in play. The approach, proximity, and putter take over. Eighth in the field for BoB%, Cole has gained an average of 8.4 strokes combined with his flatstick and irons over his last two starts.
Caddyshanks Picks
Scottie Scheffler (+175 DraftKings)
Scottie Scheffler’s odds are so low that I actually don’t recommend betting him this week, unless he gets off to a slow start and you can find a live number you like. Also, look into the “without Scheffler” markets.
The only reason I have him on the card this week is because I committed to “bet Scottie every week” at the beginning of the year. It hasn’t been working out.
Brooks Koepka (+2500 Draftkings)
Everything about Brooks game is working right now except for one very important thing – his putter. If, and it’s a big if, he gets it going? He’s gonna win some tournaments.
Sungjae Im (+5600 Draftkings)
It was only a few weekends ago in Florida that Sungjae was in contention, his odds are quite long this week, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was hanging around this weekend near the top of the board.
The Truist Championship was wide open on Sunday.
Plenty of names were within striking distance. Alex Fitzpatrick had the overnight lead. Rickie Fowler, Cameron Young, Nicolai Højgaard, Tommy Fleetwood, and a handful of others were all close enough to make things interesting.
But it was Kristoffer Reitan, the 28-year-old from Norway, who stepped up, closed the deal, and walked away with the trophy and the signature-event check.
Not bad for a guy still getting settled on the PGA TOUR.
Reitan’s Breakthrough Came Fast
Reitan’s road here has not exactly been smooth.
He had a brief stop at Texas before choosing the professional route, then went through the grind of trying to establish himself in Europe. He has spoken openly about the ups and downs, but eventually found his footing again.
Last year, he finished inside the top 10 on the Race to Dubai, earned his PGA TOUR card, yet hadn’t finished in the Top 10 in a single event this year.
Then came Quail Hollow.
Reitan began Sunday one shot behind Alex Fitzpatrick, but stayed steady while the leaderboard around him got chaotic. He closed with a 2-under 69, finished at 15-under, and beat Rickie Fowler and Nicolai Højgaard by two shots.
That is a life-changing week – good for him.
Alex Fitzpatrick Was Right There
Alex Fitzpatrick started the day with a one-shot lead and had a real chance to win his first solo PGA TOUR event.
Instead, Sunday got away from him.
He shot 2-over on the day and finished solo fourth, which is still a great result, but it will probably sting considering where he stood entering the final round.
Still, Fitzpatrick has been playing well since getting his PGA TOUR card, and this feels more like a sign of things to come than a collapse to worry about.
Meanwhile, his brother Matt cooled off with a T52 finish after his own ridiculous run of three wins in three starts.
Rickie And Nicolai Made Their Sunday Push
Rickie Fowler and Nicolai Højgaard both finished T2, two shots behind Reitan.
For Fowler, it was another reminder that he still has plenty left when the putter cooperates and the ball-striking shows up.
For Højgaard, it was another strong week from a player who keeps looking more and more comfortable on big stages.
Neither one got the trophy, but both made Reitan earn it.
Cam Young Gave Us All A Putting Reminder
Cameron Young has been one of the hottest players on the planet lately.
And yet, on Sunday, he missed multiple putts inside four feet.
You know, just in case you think you should make every four-footer.
Young still finished T10, but the round was a good reminder that even the best players in the world can look human at times.
Other Notable Finishes
- Tommy Fleetwood: T5
- Ludvig Åberg: T8
- Cameron Young: T10
- Rory McIlroy: T19
- Matt Fitzpatrick: T52
What’s Next?
The PGA Championship at Aronimink.
Odds For The 2026 PGA Championship
Odds are subject to change and may vary by sportsbook.
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +450 |
| Rory McIlroy | +850 |
| Cameron Young | +1200 |
| Jon Rahm | +1600 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +1800 |
| Xander Schauffele | +1800 |
| Ludvig Åberg | +2000 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | +2200 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +2200 |
| Brooks Koepka | +4000 |
| Collin Morikawa | +4000 |
| Justin Thomas | +4000 |
We’ll see you Wednesday with our PGA Championship picks.
