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For the second time in as many weeks, we are diving deep into a major championship venue and field. Before we get to the KPMG Women’s PGA Championship, let’s take a brief look back at the Meijer LPGA. AIG Women’s Open Champion Miyu Yamashita made a birdie on the first playoff hole to defeat Lottie Woad. Woad was going for her second win in three starts. Yamashita fired a final round 64, tying the low round of the day, securing her third LPGA title. I doubt this will be the last time these two competitors meet late on a Sunday afternoon. Both under 24 years old, they have some years ahead of them. That was the third playoff to decide the Meijer in the last five years! Going up against the US Open is a useless endeavor, but if you did happen to catch the highlights, you saw an entertaining Sunday. A

fter a two-week tour in Michigan, the world’s best women head to Chaska, Minnesota. Hazeltine National Golf Club is no stranger to championship golf. In fact, the 2019 Women’s PGA was played at this venue. That edition was won by Hannah Green. Green is having a major year with two wins already on her 2026 resume. Built in 1962 by Robert Trent Jones, Hazeltine National welcomes a field of 156 players competing for a $13 million purse. The largest in women’s major championship golf! Well done, KPMG. Twenty-four of the top 25 players in the Rolex World Rankings are here to try and win the season’s third major championship. Considering Nelly Korda has won the first two major championships of 2026, we know what the first storyline is coming into HNGC. The best women in the world are vying for a season Grand Slam. In my mind, she’ll have to win this one and the AIG Women’s Open to do it; sorry, Evian, you were late to this party.

Korda is the betting favorite by a wide margin. We may need to get creative, as she is unbettable at +300. Unlike Scottie’s 2026 campaign, this number one player in the world has been winning.

Major test

Hazeltine National Golf Club is a big kids’ course. Five of the 10 par 4s that make up this 6,760-yard par 72 layout are over 400 yards. The par 3s are manageable in length, but the 5s, three of those stretch over 530 yards. The club sits at almost 1,000 feet above sea level. Elevation will help the ball carry a couple of extra yards, but overall we are looking at a test that comes without a ton of roll. As you will see in the forecast, the HNGC region has been damp over the past 10 to 14 days. The 2016 Ryder Cup and two more PGA Championships during the Tiger years have been contested here. Reports from the property highlight healthy rough and a medium bounce. All 11 2026 LPGA winners are competing alongside 12 past champions. A few of those players crossover under both categories. They will be joined by eight PGA of America/LPGA qualifiers. The Men’s PGA Championship always boasts having the deepest field in golf, and the women’s edition is no different. The 36-hole cutline is no different as well. The low 70 and ties get to play the weekend.

Course Conditions, Weather, Wind

Hazeltine National has received approximately 2″ of rain in June. Yesterday, practice rounds were cancelled for the day at 5:15 pm local time.. The course is in excellent shape, and the water table YTD is 1.5″ under the annual average. Rain is also expected on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Saturday evening into Sunday morning looks like the worst of it. High temperatures will reach the high 70s on Thursday and Friday. By Sunday, it will be 85 degrees. The wind will start out of the north on Thursday and make its way around the compass, finishing out of the south-southeast by Sunday. The wind will be in the single digits on Thursday and Friday, and blow in the 12-14 mph range over the weekend.

Softer conditions will not hurt as the average green size at Hazeltine National is 5,000 sq/ft. Small targets by any tour’s standard, they are covered in Bentgrass blades. Surrounding those greens (and fairways) are 108 bunkers. Eight holes have water in play and the fairways average 27 yards wide. If you study this scorecard and setting, you quickly realize it is an oversized accuracy contest. That poses a problem for the field. One of the longest players on the LPGA, Nelly, is also one of the most accurate. Hence, in eight individual starts this season, Korda has four wins and three second-place finishes. LOL, her worst finish is a T8. Truth be told, the PGA of America should be cheering for Nelly to play well. Not just for the TV ratings, but for history. Korda missed the cut in 2023 and 2024 in this event. Last year, the LPGA traveled to the PGA’s home in Frisco, TX, and the weather caught the tournament officials by surprise in their setup of the golf course. That shouldn’t happen at HNGC. I expect a stout test, one that favors the best players. After all, who doesn’t want the most marketable woman in golf to win their event?

How to win?

Let’s take a trip back in time to 2019. Hannah Green won the Women’s PGA the last time it was played at Hazeltine National, but who were the contenders, and how can we use that leaderboard to our advantage? Here is the top 10 from that KPMG Women’s PGA Championship:

That is a very accuracy-heavy final leaderboard. Now some of those names may not be familiar to you, but rest assured those 13 women were accurate during that time on the LPGA. Many of them were major champions coming into Hazeltine National and I am sure that helped them contend on this course. HNGC spans 335 acres. Shinneock Hills was 200 acres and we all saw how big that property played. My first priority for picking players in the KPMG is getting the power-accuracy proportion correct. I’m favoring accuracy 67% over power 33%. The rough is really healthy and the greens are small. Contenders will be in the fairway to start. The good news, when it comes to Total Driving, that’s one category that Nelly does need to lead. We are running with the longest and straightest players off the tee. When deciding between two players for any given bet, once again I’m going with the more accurate player.

Fifty percent of approaches will be played from over 150 yards. Miss the fairway from that distance, and you’re in trouble. Get closer than your opponents, and you have an advantage. The best mid- to long-iron players also possess the same complement of speed and accuracy. If Inbee and Ariya were in the same top 10, that tells us something. Park was one of the most accurate during her time on tour with an iron (or wood) in her hand. Jutanugarn was one of the most powerful. In today’s terms, this is like comparing Lydia Ko and Haeran Ryu. Both can compete here. The best way to separate them is to start looking at a few more specific skills.

With 5,000 sq/ft greens, scrambling, bogey avoidance, and birdie-to-bogey ratio matter. Who are the best players when saving shots matters most? The winning score in 2019 was nine under par. Green made 15 birdies and six bogeys that week. No double bogeys and just a few bogeys succinctly tell us what it takes. By comparing a couple of analytics that tell us who the best scorers are from 50 yards and in will further help us select those who will separate. Scrambling also includes the use of the putter. Having studied HNGC from the 2016 Ryder Cup, I also know that par 4 scoring is essential. Hannah was three under par for the week on the 4s. One of the very few players who played the 4s under par. The 3s and 5s present scoring opportunities, while the fours present challenges. Play the 4s under par like Green, and you’ll win some green!

Hazeltine National is a tough T2G test. Since the LPGA has limited data, taking the best T2G players will give us a nice baseline. Separating out the ball striking will also help us better understand who the best putters are. Of course, using only strokes gained putting doesn’t always tell us the full story on the greens. Players can make putts at HNGC. Knowing who converts par-saving and sub-par chances is key. Strokes gained scoring, scrambling, and scoring average at this point in the season accurately reflect a player’s scoring capability. Finding the best Bentgrass putters over the past month plus as the LPGA visited New Jersey, Ohio, and Michigan was helpful as well. I then looked through the harder venues from 2026 and compared those leaderboards for common player trends. The end result of that study can be seen below.

LPGA – Free Picks

 

Jeeno Thitikul (+1500 FanDuel)

The number two-ranked player in the world is 15-1 to win a major championship! Jeeno Thitikul possesses the power and grace to win at Hazeltine National. Thitikul is one of the most talented players in the field and won a little over a month ago. Par 4 scoring, T2G, Total Driving, and the putter are all part of her weekly repertoire of skills out on tour. By far the best player without a major title, if anyone can take down Korda on a big girl course, it’s Jeeno.

 

Charley Hull (+3000 FanDuel)

Charley Hull is a major championship player. Second place at the US Open at Riviera three weeks ago, Hull is another player who has the power and scoring ability to handle this major championship test. Not many players feed off the pressure like Charley, and that focus level when the tournament is on the line gives her a serious edge. The skill set for HNGC is going to be very similar to Riviera. Hull’s well-rounded game fits both ballparks better than a vast majority of the field.

 

US Open Prep.

It has been a weird run–up to the LPGA’s second major championship of the season. The world’s best women will be in Los Angeles at the famed Riviera Country Club for the United States Women’s Open. In preparation for the toughest test of the year, a field of 144 plan to compete in Galloway, New Jersey, in the ShopRite LPGA powered by Wakefern. Hopefully, Wakefern is a code word for private jet, because a Sunday finish and cross–country trip to California will take a toll on the top 65 and ties who play on Sunday. I mention Sunday, because the cut will not happen until Saturday night. The ShopRite is one of two 54-hole events remaining on the schedule. I know grocery prices have gone up, but throwing a three-day event on the shortest course the LPGA plays across the country from the US Open is a tough sell for ShopRite. Heck, they could have played this event last week and given the women more time to prepare for the national championship.

As expected, only five of the top 25 in the Rolex Rankings are competing. The betting favorite is Hye Jin Choi (+750). Please don’t take this the wrong way. Read The Line loves the ShopRite. We have picked the winner twice 2022 (Brooke Henderson) and 2023 (Ashleigh Buhai) in the last four years. In order to grab number three, we will continue to use our winning ShopRite strategy. It starts with having played Seaview’s Bay Course many times. Analyzing a course you have played and covered on-site is very helpful. We also grabbed those two wins before the LPGA published any strokes gained data. With the upgrade of their analytic offerings and local knowledge, it is time to grab number three at Seaview, and for the year.

Ross three-peat

 

The Seaview Resort is a historic golf venue. The majestic white hotel sits above 36-holes designed by two of the great architects of the golden age of golf courses. The William Flynn Pines Course heads inland behind the hotel, and Donald Ross’ Bay Course extends from the front porch out toward the sea. The Bay Course stretches to 6,263 yards and plays to a par 71. The shortest test on tour, the women will play eight (of 11) par 4s under 400 yards. Even the average par 5 is only 490 yards. This is one of the most fan-friendly events on any tour. You can see every hole from a couple of vantage points, and many of the fairways run parallel to one another. A couple of tee boxes were added last year to increase the scorecard length. The average winning score over the last decade is 14.4 under par (for three rounds). It’s an entertaining course to watch a tournament because the field can birdie or bogey any hole, depending on the conditions. The Bay Course is so exposed, and you can see it during the coverage.

Course Conditions, Weather, Wind

 

New Jersey witnessed a miserable Memorial Day weekend. It rained approximately 1-2″ inches across all different parts of the state. Much like the rest of the country, there was a drought. That’s no longer the case and although we have no rain in the forecast for Friday through Sunday, the golf course is going to play on the softer side. Temperatures are supposed to reach the low 70s, but the Bay Course is on the water and the real feel will be cooler. Thankfully, the wind prediction is around 10 mph for the three days. It will blow harder at Seaview than the web says, but that’s a decent starting point.

Even with 93 bunkers and 6,000 sq/ft greens (on average), the field will score. That’s the DNA of the Bay Course. The ShopRite has seen Hall of Famers and first-timers win because the layout is so short. If you take the top BoB% players on tour and tell them they need to average five birdies a day under normal conditions, 15ladies (minimum) can do that. I’m praying the forecast holds up. The weather can be a wildcard at the ShopRite. The skill set needed to win is specific for Seaview. If the forecast holds, we will contend and have a great chance to win. Our weekly coverage of the LPGA will be a great asset in assessing this field. With the US Open across the country in eight days, we don’t have a deep roster of usual suspects. The field in Mexico was deeper. Hopefully, the LPGA gets a handle on this schedule and starts to figure this out. The Mizuho had a great field, but that was three weeks ago. In the last six weeks, the LPGA has collected two strong events. It’s April and May! Fans complain about the two overseas tours to Asia, but we are in peak season, and nobody is playing.

Tight fairways, plenty of bunkers, and hopefully some wind will give these ladies a decent test. It’s a shoot-out at the Jersey Shore. Let’s find some women who can make 5+ birdies per round for three straight days.

How to win?

 

Breaking down the ShopRite is all about accuracy. The course is very short for modern LPGA standards. The tour continues to go here because the crowds give the ladies tremendous support, but under normal conditions, it is not a professional test. The lead skill we seek is approach play. Our two RTL winners, Henderson and Buhai, were in the top 5 on tour for iron play when they won. The average approach length is short at Seaview’s Bay Course. Five of the 11 par 4s are under 350 yards in length. Add in a very short par 3 on 17, and that’s six approaches (33%) where you must create close birdie chances. Remember, the winning score is 14 or 15 under par over three rounds. Our contenders are looking to fire five under par per day to keep pace. Those six short-range approaches are important. Since the LPGA lacks specific proximity data, how can we measure who separates on short par 4s? I like par 5 scoring at the ShopRite for this reason and a couple of others.

Players who can score on the 5s have a unique combination of skills. First, they score from close range. The modern professional golfer pushes the ball down to the green in two on a par 5. That third scoring shot comes from inside 100 yards. The best birdie makers on par 5s excel on this last approach. Six par 4s and all three par 5s will reward this skill set at the ShopRite. That’s half the holes these ladies will play each day. If you can birdie four or five of those nine, you are on pace to win. Those sub-par scores are the easiest to make on tour. The second skill on par 5s that applies on the Bay Course is your long iron or fairway wood approach in two. All three par 5s are reachable at Seaview, as the average length is 490 yards for the 5s.

Those three long-iron swings on the 5s also correlate to success on the par 3s. If the Bay Course challenges anything, it is par 3 scoring. Outside of the short seventeenth, the other par 3s are over 180 yards. Each one has a small, undulating green. As we have seen the past three weeks on tour, Ross was notorious for testing players on par 3s. Add up those three tee shots and the three long second swings on the par 5s, and that’s six more situations where players can separate. The final key par 5 player trait is making birdie or better. The scoring average of the last three top 10s at the ShopRite after three rounds is 4.5 on the 5s. The leaders are going low on these holes. It doesn’t matter what the weather is; this collection of par 5s is very scoreable. You must average two birdies per day on those three holes.

Looking through the recent top 10s from the 2022 to 2025 leaderboards, putting ranks second in strokes gained importance. That makes sense, because this is a three-day shoot-out. Wind–swept courses like this one are required to have relatively benign putting greens because the slopes will not hold balls in the wind. They do have shelves and sections, but when you get on the right plateau, the putting becomes very straightforward. The average green is small, 6,000 sq/ft. Hit the green, and you have a legitimate birdie chance. The defending champion, Jennifer Kupcho, gained nearly three strokes per round last year with her flatstick. Women will make putts, and since scoring is all that counts, you have to pay attention to those who are trending on the greens. Consider this as well, we just left TWO Ross–designed venues. Did Donald create all of those putting surfaces? No. But the Ross DNA is there, and it exists at the Bay Course too.

How much should we pay attention to short game and OTT play? Seaview might be the only course across the LPGA and PGA TOUR where the driver really does not matter. Can it help with the 5s? Yes. There are so many short holes at Seaview, you just need to hit your wedges (very) close. That’s the consideration for the short game as well. Sure, the ladies will miss some greens, but these surfaces are really windswept flat. A decent around the green player will do fine here. You don’t really need to worry about bunker play, etc., because the field is hitting approach shots from such close range. We’re not going to overthink this; we have predicted the winner here twice. Approach, approach, approach, pick the player who will hit 75% of her GIRs, make 18 sub-par scores in three rounds, and that’s the winner.

Will any part of this event help us handicap next week? Probably not. The USGA will have Riviera set up 500+ yards longer. The driver will play a huge role in the Pacific Palisades and mid- to long- iron play. Keep an eye on the putter at Seaview. We will want to know who is popping with the flatstick, but overall, this three-round event is as much of a one–off format as is the skill set needed. Enjoy the entertainment and the NJ crowds. Nine of the last 11 ShopRites were won by one stroke or in a playoff. After a miserable Memorial Day weekend, things are about to heat up down at the Jersey Shore.

LPGA – Free Picks

 

Celine Boutier (+1900 DraftKings)

The 2021 ShopRite winner, Celine Boutier has been on a tear with her iron game on the last two Donald Ross venues. Ninth place at the Mizuho and sixteenth at the Kroger, the former champ is locked in on approach. The difference with Boutierversus some of the other middle-tier prospects is her putter. When Celine is scoring and stacking up top 20 results, it is always a well-rounded resume. Third in the field for rounds recorded in the 60s, and fourth in round one scoring, watch for the French lady to get off to a fast start and take this title home with a wire-to-wire finish.

Jodi Ewart-Shadoff (+7200 DraftKings)

Following the LPGA intensely for four straight years, I can say with confidence, Jodi Ewart-Shadoff at 72-1 is a total misprice. The second-best approach player in the field has proven she can play Seaview. In her last five starts on the Bay Course, Ewart-Shadoff has three results in the top 12. One of those finishes was a third place in 2022. Jodi finished sixth in Mexico earlier in May, another accuracy-driven design. When the number one skill needed is iron play, put JES on the card. Sixth in par 5 scoring, there are other skills Shadoff has that will promote contending again at the shore.

Last week, we had a birdie-fest.

This week, we should have something more challenging (depending on the weather).

The host venue this week, Colonial, has a rich history. Ben Hogan won five times here, and it’s the longest running tournament held at the same venue on TOUR.

They’ve been playing here for 80 years, yet since Hogan’s time, no one has ever won back-to-back. He did it twice, by the way.

Secondly, Colonial is narrow, with small greens – it’s not a bombers course.

Now, I am no golf course architecture expert, but I’ve noticed a theme.

At courses like Riviera, Harbour Town, and Colonial, all of the sudden how far the pros hit the ball doesn’t matter as much, and the golf seems to be way more enjoyable to watch.

What do those courses have in common?

They were all built before 1950, they are all old-school, strategic “shot-maker” courses that reward precision over power. They emphasize placing tee shots in the right spots, controlling approach angles, and hitting accurate irons into smaller or well-protected greens.

Here are the key stats for Colonial:

• Prioritize elite iron players and putters. The two strongest within-event correlations with SG Total are SG Putting at 0.648 and SG Approach at 0.610, well ahead of off-the-tee and around-the-green. For betting, that points toward players gaining consistently on approach who also have a credible putting spike in their profile.
• Build around the 125–175 yard approach window. The biggest approach buckets are 125–150 yards: 20.1% and 150–175 yards: 20.9%, so roughly 41% of approaches come from those two ranges alone. Proximity and scoring from short-to-mid irons should matter more here than generic long-iron or wedge-only splits.
• Don’t overrate driving accuracy by itself. Colonial is narrow, with 29.9-yard fairways and only 54.7% driving accuracy, but the correlation of accuracy to SG Total is just 0.169, while distance is 0.289 and total SG Off the Tee is 0.444. The betting takeaway: look for controlled drivers who can gain off the tee without being reckless, but don’t automatically downgrade longer players just because they miss fairways.

 

The Details

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Weekly Bets: 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson

For the second week in a row, the PGA TOUR is hosting a Signature Event.

Hopefully, that is the last time I ever have to write that sentence.

The TOUR’s limited-field, no-cut, guaranteed-money events were basically a LIV-response experiment – a way to financially compensate top players enough to keep them from jumping ship.

And they kinda stink.

In terms of retaining talent, maybe it worked and maybe it didn’t. But I can tell you this: the average golf fan does not care about the purse size.

We watch sports for community, unscripted drama, and meaningful storytelling.

When you remove the cut-line and guarantee the money, it limits the amount of meaningful stories and drama that can play out.

Beyond that, if you’re the type of sicko who watches golf every week, it gets a little stale seeing the same 70 guys over and over again.

Bring back the cuts. Long live the cuts. 

With that tangent out of the way, we get back to the actual golf tournament being hosted at Quail Hollow this week.

Like last week, it’s a brutish course.

Both Doral and Quail Hollow play ~7600 yds, and both have a demanding set of closing holes.

The last three at Quail Hollow are referred to as The Green Mile, but by now, you’re probably pretty familiar with the course. It hosted the PGA Championship last year and the Presidents Cup in 2022, and has been a regular stop on TOUR for some time.

Rory McIlroy has won here four times; he is the odds leader this week, with Scottie Scheffler taking the week off.

The course suits McIlroy’s game perfectly – it requires distance and accuracy off the tee as well as emphasis on ball-striking.

Okay, I could write that about most courses, most weeks, but you get the point.

If you want to win at Quail Hollow, you’ve got to bring your complete game with you.

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Weekly Bets: The Truist Championship

We’ve partnered with Keith Stewart at Read The Line to share his weekly golf betting picks with the Caddyshanks crew. If you’re the type who enjoys breaking down matchups, spotting trends, and hunting for value, you’ll feel right at home in the RTL community.

Keith Stewart’s Picks

Rory McIlroy (+600 FanDuel)

Twelve starts at Quail Hollow, four wins, and nine top 10s. Needless to say, Rory McIlroy will be there on Sunday afternoon. Enjoy the sweat.

Akshay Bhatia (+6600 DraftKings)

Pundits will push the driver narrative this week, and they are right. What will give you an edge is picking players who move the ball right to left. For righties, that’s a draw, but for Akshay Bhatia, that is his patented fade. Complementing his edge off the tee is an approach game that has gained strokes in eight of his last nine starts. One last point, Bhatia is ranked third on the TOUR for strokes gained putting. For the North Carolina kid, this venue is a great fit.

 

Caddyshanks Picks

Xander Schauffele (+1125 Draftkings)

Xander has as good a course history at Quail Hollow as you can have without winning, and he’s quietly been gaining strokes T2G and OTT in his last few starts. He hasn’t truly been in contention on a Sunday yet this year, but it’s coming soon.

Si Woo Kim (+2400 Draftkings) 

Si Woo has been playing really well to start this season, and he has contended, but he hasn’t won yet. He played his way into the final group last week at a similarly demanding golf course, and I like him to do it again this week.

Sepp Straka (+4500 Draftkings)

Sepp won last year, albeit at the Philly Cricket Club and not QH, but that doesn’t matter. What matters most is that he quietly grabbed a back-door Top 10 last week, and he could be a sneaky pick to repeat at champ.