Last week, we had a birdie-fest.

This week, we should have something more challenging (depending on the weather).

The host venue this week, Colonial, has a rich history. Ben Hogan won five times here, and it’s the longest running tournament held at the same venue on TOUR.

They’ve been playing here for 80 years, yet since Hogan’s time, no one has ever won back-to-back. He did it twice, by the way.

Secondly, Colonial is narrow, with small greens – it’s not a bombers course.

Now, I am no golf course architecture expert, but I’ve noticed a theme.

At courses like Riviera, Harbour Town, and Colonial, all of the sudden how far the pros hit the ball doesn’t matter as much, and the golf seems to be way more enjoyable to watch.

What do those courses have in common?

They were all built before 1950, they are all old-school, strategic “shot-maker” courses that reward precision over power. They emphasize placing tee shots in the right spots, controlling approach angles, and hitting accurate irons into smaller or well-protected greens.

Here are the key stats for Colonial:

  • Prioritize elite iron players and putters. The two strongest within-event correlations with SG Total are SG Putting at 0.648 and SG Approach at 0.610, well ahead of off-the-tee and around-the-green. For betting, that points toward players gaining consistently on approach who also have a credible putting spike in their profile.
  • Build around the 125–175 yard approach window. The biggest approach buckets are 125–150 yards: 20.1% and 150–175 yards: 20.9%, so roughly 41% of approaches come from those two ranges alone. Proximity and scoring from short-to-mid irons should matter more here than generic long-iron or wedge-only splits.
  • Don’t overrate driving accuracy by itself. Colonial is narrow, with 29.9-yard fairways and only 54.7% driving accuracy, but the correlation of accuracy to SG Total is just 0.169, while distance is 0.289 and total SG Off the Tee is 0.444. The betting takeaway: look for controlled drivers who can gain off the tee without being reckless, but don’t automatically downgrade longer players just because they miss fairways.

 

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Keith Stewart’s Picks

Rickie Fowler (+2400 DraftKings)

Rickie Fowler has three top 10s in his last four starts. Rickie finished T60 at Aronimink because of his putter. Those greens are the toughest these guys will see all year on TOUR. All other aspects of Fowler’s game have been firing for the better part of 2026. He tied sixth and T16 in two of his last three starts at Colonial. It’s time for Fowler to finish one off. Gaining almost six strokes on average against the field at Hogan’s home over his last three trips to Fort Worth, Rickie won’t be the only Oklahoma guy winning in Texas this week.

Taylor Moore (+9400 DraftKings)

Innisbrook’s Copperhead course is a great comp venue for Colonial Country Club. Taylor Moore won the Valspar Championship (2023) and is coming off four straight top-40 finishes. Each result has improved by the week: T39-T20-T17-T14. Moore is a great close-range scorer who can drive the golf ball. When his iron game gets going, that’s when Taylor can win. Gaining seven strokes on the field in his last two starts and trending up for two months, I expect a little more from Taylor this week.

Caddyshanks Picks

Justin Thomas (+1800 Fanduel)

The last time we saw JT he was playing lights out on Sunday at Aronimink. Week by week, he’s been returning to major championship form. We like him to not only compete this week, but also at the two remaining majors this year.

Sungjae Im (+3500 Fanduel)

I am going with Sungjae in back-to-back weeks. He’s got 3 top 10’s this season, he’s finished Top 15 at Colonial three different times. It’s also worth noting that he was one of a handful of guys to go super-low last week, with a 61 in the 2nd round.

For the second week in a row, the PGA TOUR is hosting a Signature Event.

Hopefully, that is the last time I ever have to write that sentence.

The TOUR’s limited-field, no-cut, guaranteed-money events were basically a LIV-response experiment – a way to financially compensate top players enough to keep them from jumping ship.

And they kinda stink.

In terms of retaining talent, maybe it worked and maybe it didn’t. But I can tell you this: the average golf fan does not care about the purse size.

We watch sports for community, unscripted drama, and meaningful storytelling.

When you remove the cut-line and guarantee the money, it limits the amount of meaningful stories and drama that can play out.

Beyond that, if you’re the type of sicko who watches golf every week, it gets a little stale seeing the same 70 guys over and over again.

Bring back the cuts. Long live the cuts. 

With that tangent out of the way, we get back to the actual golf tournament being hosted at Quail Hollow this week.

Like last week, it’s a brutish course.

Both Doral and Quail Hollow play ~7600 yds, and both have a demanding set of closing holes.

The last three at Quail Hollow are referred to as The Green Mile, but by now, you’re probably pretty familiar with the course. It hosted the PGA Championship last year and the Presidents Cup in 2022, and has been a regular stop on TOUR for some time.

Rory McIlroy has won here four times; he is the odds leader this week, with Scottie Scheffler taking the week off.

The course suits McIlroy’s game perfectly – it requires distance and accuracy off the tee as well as emphasis on ball-striking.

Okay, I could write that about most courses, most weeks, but you get the point.

If you want to win at Quail Hollow, you’ve got to bring your complete game with you.

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Rory McIlroy (+600 FanDuel)

Twelve starts at Quail Hollow, four wins, and nine top 10s. Needless to say, Rory McIlroy will be there on Sunday afternoon. Enjoy the sweat.

Akshay Bhatia (+6600 DraftKings)

Pundits will push the driver narrative this week, and they are right. What will give you an edge is picking players who move the ball right to left. For righties, that’s a draw, but for Akshay Bhatia, that is his patented fade. Complementing his edge off the tee is an approach game that has gained strokes in eight of his last nine starts. One last point, Bhatia is ranked third on the TOUR for strokes gained putting. For the North Carolina kid, this venue is a great fit.

 

Caddyshanks Picks

Xander Schauffele (+1125 Draftkings)

Xander has as good a course history at Quail Hollow as you can have without winning, and he’s quietly been gaining strokes T2G and OTT in his last few starts. He hasn’t truly been in contention on a Sunday yet this year, but it’s coming soon.

Si Woo Kim (+2400 Draftkings) 

Si Woo has been playing really well to start this season, and he has contended, but he hasn’t won yet. He played his way into the final group last week at a similarly demanding golf course, and I like him to do it again this week.

Sepp Straka (+4500 Draftkings)

Sepp won last year, albeit at the Philly Cricket Club and not QH, but that doesn’t matter. What matters most is that he quietly grabbed a back-door Top 10 last week, and he could be a sneaky pick to repeat at champ.

Team golf has its place, but if LIV Golf has taught me anything, it’s that team golf is best when it’s the exception, not the rule.

One of those exceptions is this week at the Zurich Classic, and even that barely qualifies.

This event just doesn’t have much juice, mostly because a lot of the top players skip it. The PGA TOUR should probably try to fix that, or just leave team golf to the Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup, but I’m just a lowly golf newsletter writer. No one at the PGA TOUR has asked for my vision of the future just yet.

Anyway, the first and third rounds are better ball. The second and fourth rounds are alternate shot.

This is also a tricky event to make picks for, especially since first-time teammates have won here before, so you can’t lean too hard on course history.

Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry were one such team back in 2024.

This year, Rory is skipping it, so Lowry found a new partner in Brooks Koepka.

A win would go a long way for Brooks – it would secure a two-year exemption and get him into all the Signature Events.

Another reason this event is tough to handicap is that Data Golf doesn’t have betting tools or live coverage for it, so we’re flying blind.

Ready, fire, aim.

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Weekly Bets: The RBC Heritage

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Aaron Rai – Sahith Theegala (+2150 DraftKings)

Looking for a breakout team? Pair a scorer with an extremely consistent ball striker. Aaron Rai works for the highway commission. The man paints straight lines with his golf shots. Precise, consistent, and calm. Sahith Theegala is a pure scorer. Together, they have eight appearances in the Zurich Classic and six top 25 finishes. I love Rai to keep Theegala out of trouble, and Sahith to help Aaron convert on the greens.

Chad Ramey – Justin Lower (+7200 DraftKings)

In his last three Zurich starts, Chad Ramey has finished ninth, second, and eighth. Justin Lower has two more top 10s in his last four starts in New Orleans. Neither guy is an elite player on the PGA TOUR, but when it comes to this team competition, they get it done. Ramey’s consistent ball striking and Lower’s ability to go low pair perfectly. With the reduced strength of the field, maybe two guys can break through as Griffin and Novak did one year ago.

Caddyshanks Picks

 

Brooks Koepka & Shane Lowry (+1450 Draftkings)

They’ve got the shortest odds in the field behind the Fitzpatrick brothers, so this is a storyline pick. With a win, Brooks secures his spot on the PGA TOUR for years to come.

Billy Horschel & Tom Hoge (+7000 Draftkings)

Horschel has won here as a solo and as part of a duo, and that’s about all you can hang your hat on with this team, but it’s a week to throw darts so here we are.

Blades Brown & Luke Clanton (+7000 Draftkings)

They’ve got to be the youngest team in the field, and I am pretty sure their combined age is still younger than Matt Kuchar, who’s also in the field. It would be a lot of fun to see two young guns in contention on Sunday.

I’m pretty sure I’ve said this the last two years, but the RBC Heritage really is a great comedown from The Masters.

Especially since the PGA TOUR awarded it Signature Event status, which means it draws a strong field.

This year, that field includes all qualified players with the exception of Rory McIlroy, who’s probably still celebrating his second green jacket, and Hideki Matsuyama.

Beyond the field, the course at Harbour Town Golf Links is narrow, with some of the smallest greens on TOUR.

This is not a bombers course, but one that demands accuracy off the tee and on approach. It’s a different setup than a lot of the courses we see on TOUR these days.

And hey, if you didn’t win the green jacket last week…

There’s always the plaid one.

Field Notes

 

  • Tighter scoring = fewer blowups, more clustering
    Last year, the field stayed bunched – it was harder for longshots to separate, easier for steady players to hang around. Lean toward consistent ball-strikers over volatile scorers.

  • Approach play decided everything
    SG: APP drove the largest share of scoring variance (~38%). That’s your edge – prioritize elite iron players over hot putters or OTT merchants this week.

  • Accuracy > distance (by a lot)
    Harbour Town strongly favored accurate drivers, and 2025 leaned even more that way. Downgrade bombers, upgrade fairway finders who keep it in play and give themselves clean looks into greens.

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Weekly Bets: The RBC Heritage

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Cameron Young (+1800 DraftKings)

In his last three starts, Cameron Young has finished seventh, third, won THE PLAYERS, and third at The Masters. The first time Young saw Harbour Town, Cameron finished third in 2022. Young is top 10 in the field for approach, par 4 scoring, and BoB%. His driver is an absolute weapon on this golf course. The disappointment from Sunday at The Masters fuels his second win in a month.

Sahith Theegala (+8800 DraftKings)

I love Sahith Theegala on Pete Dye designs. The talented Theegala has proven he understands Pete’s tricks. Eighth at The American Express (Dye) in January and tenth in his last start at Houston, Sahith has two top 5s in four starts at Harbour Town. The trending Theegala has a ton of value at nearly 90-1!

Caddyshanks Picks

Tommy Fleetwood (+1800 Draftkings)

I wish the number was a little bit longer for Tommy Lad here, but his game fits the course well, and I think his 2nd PGA TOUR win will come a lot sooner than the first.

Jason Day (+4800 Draftkings)

Small greens usually mean missed greens. Jason Day has gained strokes around the green in his last five events. Betting guys with good short game is the play this week.

Scottie Scheffler (+380 Draftkings)

The iron play showed some signs of life at Augusta, if that was more than just an illusion, Scottie could start heating up at just the right time – I still think he completes the career Grand Slam this year.

Preview & Picks: The Masters

The 90th Masters is here, and it’s going to be a special one.

To start, it’s the first Masters since 1994 that features neither Tiger Woods or Phil Mickelson, as you may have heard.

Next, the weather looks to be immaculate. It’s been relatively dry in Augusta the last few weeks, the temps will be in the high 70’s and low 80’s for the tournament, and there’s no rain to speak of on the weekend forecast.

We are going to get a firm and fast Augusta National.

That’s a pretty rare thing – according to the Weather Channel, the last time there was 4 straight rain-free days was back in 2011, when Charl Schwartzel won. We will try to not read into that fact too much.

There are 91 players in one of the best fields in golf, which includes past champions, seasoned veterans, and 22 first-timers.

A first timer hasn’t won since Fuzzy Zoeller did it way back in 1979.

You can find the full list of tee times here.

Field Notes

 

  • Approach play is everything – SG: Approach has the highest correlation to scoring (0.641), by a wide margin. If you’re picking outrights or DFS plays, prioritize elite iron players over bombers.

  • Short game + putting still matter late – SG: Putting (0.578) and Around the Green (0.466) both show strong correlation. Augusta turns into a scrambling + putting contest on the weekend.

  • Distance helps, but accuracy isn’t critical – Driving distance has a mild edge (0.121), while accuracy is slightly more relevant (0.203), but neither is close to approach. You don’t need straight drivers—you need guys who can recover and attack greens.

 

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Weekly Bets: The Masters

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Keith Stewart’s Picks

 

Xander Schauffele (+1800 DraftKings)

Xander Schauffele has five top 10 finishes at The Masters in eight starts. That’s a 63% conversion rate for getting involved on Sunday afternoon. Add in three top 7s in his last four starts in 2026, and the form matches the course history. Let’s not overthink it. One of the best players in the world, who is playing exceptionally well, will win. Schauffele sure does check all of the most important boxes!

Hideki Matsuyama (+4000 FanDuel)

The best time to bet Hideki Matsuyama is when all of the attention is on other Masters contenders. The bread crumbs are there… Matsuyama is gaining strokes with his driver in three of his last four starts. The iron game has been impeccable all year, and the flatstick has been strong in five of his last six events. Hideki lost strokes ARG in San Antonio to help his odds climb. A true value play who has proven he can win at Augusta National, I love everything about this 2026 lead-in.

Caddyshanks Picks

 

Matt Fitzpatrick (+2300 Draftkings)

There’s a few guys; Matt Fitzpatrick, Cam Young, Chris Gotterup, and Ludvig Aberg, who you could slot in for this pick. They have all played well in the lead up to the Masters, all of them except for Aberg have won at least once. Of them, only Gotterup is making his debut, which I count against him. Of the others, only Fitzpatrick has proven he can win a major (although I have no doubt the others will eventually) and for that reason, he gets the nod.

Jordan Spieth (+4200 Draftkings)

Has he proven that he can consistently keep the ball in between the wickets? No, but his play has been solid this year (two top 11’s and a 12th place finish) and he’s a previous Masters champion, which always seems to help. Okay, I can’t really justify this pick statistically, this is more of a spiritual thing.

Patrick Reed (+4200 Draftkings)

C’mon, don’t pretend it’s not fun to cheer for the villain every now and then. Not to mention, he’s won twice this year, and has also won the Masters before. Plus, that short game will come in handy when things are firm and fast.

Scottie Scheffler (+510 Draftkings)

It’s true – Scottie hasn’t played in a month. When he last played, his iron play wasn’t at it’s typical level. Don’t care. Auto-bet.

Preview & Picks: The Houston Open

The Texas Swing, if you could call it that, really sits in an unfortunate position on the TOUR schedule.

It fits right in between the Florida Swing and The Masters, and as a result, the fields just aren’t that compelling. The Houston Open is usually bolstered by Scottie Scheffler, who likes to compete in his home state, but not this year.

Yesterday, he made a surprise WD, because he and his wife are expecting their second child.

Good news for the Schefflers, and good news for everyone else in the field too. With Scheffler out, the favorites are last years champ, Min Woo Lee, along with Chris Gotterup, Jake Knapp, and Brooks Koepka.

Memorial Park, which Brooks Koepka helped redesign a few years ago, is a bombers course. Notice how all of those betting favorites have that in common?

Field Notes

  • Putting has been the biggest separator – SG: Putting shows the highest correlation (~0.65), which is notable. On a course where scoring gets low (around -1.1 avg), players who can convert birdie looks and avoid mistakes on the greens tend to separate.

  • Approach play still matters a lot – SG: Approach is right behind (~0.58 correlation). With a large share of shots coming from 125–200+ yards, strong iron players continue to have a clear edge.

  • Distance > accuracy off the tee – Driving distance (~0.20) outpaces accuracy (~0.15), suggesting Memorial Park rewards length more than precision. It’s relatively forgiving, so players can lean on power without being overly punished.

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Weekly Bets: Houston Open

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Keith Stewart’s Picks

Nicolai Højgaard (+2800 BetMGM)

Here we go again. Nicolai Højgaard ranks eighth in approach, thirty-sixth around the greens, and seventeenth with the putter. He has plenty of ball speed and also sits inside the top 18 for par 3 and par 4 scoring among players in Houston. We’re looking for a bomber who can scramble, chip, and putt. Let’s not go beyond one of the Wonder Twins. I’m keeping Nicolai on my card for another week because I believe he can win.

Ryan Fox (+6700 DraftKings)

Ryan Fox is gaining in all aspects of his game over his last six starts. 2026 has been good to the Kiwi, with four top 25s in four PGA TOUR starts this season. Fox is primed to close out another tournament when we find the right fit. Memorial Park’s mid-iron requirement, short game successes, and positive putting skill set match Fox’s player CV. Ryan finished T15 last year in Houston with one bad round. Be sly and grab Foxy further down the odds board.

Caddyshanks Picks

Chris Gotterup (+2050 Draftkings)

With Scheffler out, we’re going back to the well once more with Gotterup. Between him and Cam Young, you’re looking at the two best breakout candidates of the year.

Brooks Koepka (+2500 Draftkings)

The major concern with Brooks right now is his putter, but the rest of his game has been really solid. If he can get the magic wand working, he should be in contention come Sunday.

Aldrich Potgieter (+8000 Draftkings)

The young man is an absolute bomber, and this field feels like it could be one that gives way to a longshot winner. Why not take a flyer?

Preview & Picks: The Valspar Championship

One of the best parts of the Florida Swing? These courses don’t mess around.

You go from The Bear Trap… to Bay Hill… to Sawgrass… to The Snake Pit. It’s basically a four-week stress test for the best players in the world.

We’ve already seen it take its toll. Shane Lowry got chewed up by The Bear Trap. Daniel Berger couldn’t close at Bay Hill. Ludvig Aberg let it slip away at Sawgrass. These are tough courses to win at.

Now the TOUR heads to Innisbrook, where the Copperhead Course – and The Snake Pit – are waiting.

The field is pretty strong. Seven of the Top 20 in the world are teeing it up: Xander Schauffele, J.J. Spaun, Justin Thomas, Matt Fitzpatrick, Ben Griffin, Viktor Hovland, and Jacob Bridgeman.

And there’s depth – Brooks Koepka, Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler, Keegan Bradley, Sahith Theegala, and Patrick Cantlay are all competing. Akshay Bhatia WD today.

Tough course (6th hardest on TOUR), strong field, and a little history with the 25th anniversary of the Valspar.

Feels like we’re set up for another good one.

And if things break right… maybe we go back-to-back after hitting Cam Young last week.

Field Notes

  • Approach play is the separator – SG: Approach had the highest correlation the last two years (~0.56–0.61), well ahead of everything else. With a heavy concentration of shots coming from 150–200 yards, this is a classic second-shot course. Target elite iron players, especially strong mid-iron performers.

  • Accuracy over distance off the tee – Driving distance barely moves the needle (~0.03 correlation), while accuracy matters more (~0.20–0.27). With narrow fairways (~26–27 yards) and penalties for misses, players who keep it in play have a clear edge.

  • Don’t ignore putting – SG: Putting showed a surprisingly strong correlation (~0.59 both years), nearly matching approach in 2024. On a difficult course where scoring hovers just over par, players who can convert limited chances tend to separate.

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Keith Stewart’s Picks

Nicolai Højgaard (+3600 DraftKings)

I’m excited about this pick. More excited than Morikawa at THE PLAYERS, in hindsight, yes! Nicolai Højgaard has been quietly playing some really solid golf. Højgaard lost strokes with his driver due to one bad round at TPC Sawgrass and still finished in the top 30. Prior to Ponte Vedra, Nicolai finished top 6 in three of his five starts. The ball striking and putter are both really good, and he has a secret weapon. Højgaard is ranked third in the field for par 3 scoring. With five of those to play per round on the Copperhead Course, that’s an edge most will miss.

Austin Smotherman (+5500 Bet Rivers)

Since the PGA TOUR started the Florida swing, we keep hearing Austin Smotherman’s name. Smotherman has gained with his iron game in EVERY start this season; all seven of them. Austin earned his way into the API and finished T13 at THE PLAYERS. A T8 at The American Express and runner-up at the Cognizant Classic, Smotherman’s star power continues to rise. Two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour last June, this kid can close. No rookie at Innisbrook, in two starts, Austin has finished T25 and T36. If you’re worried about the putter, the Copperhead is one course where Austin has gained strokes in every start. Another sign Smotherman can win, his odds. Three weeks ago, they were in the triple digits.

Caddyshanks Picks

Jacob Bridgeman (+2200 Draftkings)

After winning at Riviera, Bridgeman has continued to pay well. He’s the best putter in the field right now and is a great course fit. The only issue here is that I hate how low his number is. Vegas always knows.

Sahith Theegala (+3600 Draftkings)

Sahith has played well overall this year, with three Top 10 finishes. He checks the iron-play box, but will need a hot week with the putter to contend.

Jordan Spieth (+2700 Fanduel)

Normally, this spot is reserved for the Scottie Scheffler auto-pick, but he’s not in the field this week, so we are hopping on the Spieth rollercoaster. He’s won here before you know…

Preview & Picks: The Players Championship

The Players Championship is not a major, and that’s good, great even.

It’s stands on it’s own as a unique test of golf, with one of the strongest fields, and the biggest purse on TOUR. Throw in an iconic venue and great tournament history, and you have everything you need for an awesome tournament.

Unlike the Bay Hill and Augusta, Sawgrass is not very predictive.

There’s not one style of play, or type of player, that fits Sawgrass best – which speaks to the brilliance of it’s course design.

Scottie Scheffler had a great answer when asked about The Players yesterday at his presser.

Worth a minute of your time to hear how the World No. 1 views The Players.

To put it simply, to win The Players, you must bring your complete game to Ponte Vedra.

Field Notes

  • Elite iron play is the biggest separator. SG: Approach had the highest correlation with success (0.66), making it the clear stat to target. Nearly 37% of approaches come from 125–175 yards, so players who dominate with short-to-mid irons tend to rise up the board at Sawgrass.

  • Putting matters more here than most people think. SG: Putting shows a very strong correlation (0.59), higher than off-the-tee play. With firm greens and constant pressure around the course, players who convert opportunities tend to separate.

  • Driving accuracy matters more than distance. SG: Off the Tee is still important (0.50 correlation), but accuracy (0.36) is far more relevant than distance (0.10). Sawgrass rewards players who keep the ball in play and avoid penalty areas rather than pure bombers.

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We’ve partnered with Keith Stewart at Read The Line to share his weekly golf betting picks with the Caddyshanks crew. If you’re the type who enjoys breaking down matchups, spotting trends, and hunting for value, you’ll feel right at home in the RTL community. Join Here.

Keith Stewart’s Picks

Collin Morikawa (+2100 DraftKings)

Collin Morikawa is a mega chalk pick at THE PLAYERS. I’ve watched enough golf to know Morikawa will be in the mix on Sunday afternoon. Collin is playing with a ton of confidence, and that can’t be ignored. With many questions around the other top contenders, why not Morikawa? Driving accuracy, check; approach play, check; and major closing ability, check! Too often, we overthink the obvious when picking outrights. Collin has finished in the top 7 three consecutive times on TOUR and has two top 13 finishes in his last three trips to TPC Sawgrass. Trust what makes the most sense.

Chris Gotterup (+5000 FanDuel) 

I think we need to pay attention to Chris Gotterup in big events. The two-time winner on TOUR continues to perform even when the venue doesn’t appear to fit. Positive on approach in five straight starts, Gotterup’s heavy fade off the tee will keep him in the fairway. From there, he can attack and score. I’m not worried about Sunday at Bay Hill; that course was literally dead at the end of play. One start at THE PLAYERS, Chris is not a TPC Sawgrass rookie. An aggressive player who is competing with tons of confidence, Gotterup is about to elevate his career in a big way.

Caddyshanks Picks

Si Woo Kim (+3300 Fanduel)

We really just might pick Si Woo and Hideki every week until one of them wins. It’s coming!

Cam Young (+5000 Fanduel)

Earlier in the year, the two guys who seemed most likely to break out were Chris Gotterup and Cam Young. Keith took Gotterup, I am taking Cam.

Scottie Scheffler (+330 Fanduel)

The auto-bet Scottie every tournament strategy is off to a bumpy start, as Scottie’s play hasn’t been to the level we’re used to, but we aren’t going to allow any doubt to creep in. He’ll get it dialed in.