Preview & Picks: KPMG Women’s PGA Championship

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For the second time in as many weeks, we are diving deep into a major championship venue and field. Before we get to the KPMG Women’s PGA Championship, let’s take a brief look back at the Meijer LPGA. AIG Women’s Open Champion Miyu Yamashita made a birdie on the first playoff hole to defeat Lottie Woad. Woad was going for her second win in three starts. Yamashita fired a final round 64, tying the low round of the day, securing her third LPGA title. I doubt this will be the last time these two competitors meet late on a Sunday afternoon. Both under 24 years old, they have some years ahead of them. That was the third playoff to decide the Meijer in the last five years! Going up against the US Open is a useless endeavor, but if you did happen to catch the highlights, you saw an entertaining Sunday. A

fter a two-week tour in Michigan, the world’s best women head to Chaska, Minnesota. Hazeltine National Golf Club is no stranger to championship golf. In fact, the 2019 Women’s PGA was played at this venue. That edition was won by Hannah Green. Green is having a major year with two wins already on her 2026 resume. Built in 1962 by Robert Trent Jones, Hazeltine National welcomes a field of 156 players competing for a $13 million purse. The largest in women’s major championship golf! Well done, KPMG. Twenty-four of the top 25 players in the Rolex World Rankings are here to try and win the season’s third major championship. Considering Nelly Korda has won the first two major championships of 2026, we know what the first storyline is coming into HNGC. The best women in the world are vying for a season Grand Slam. In my mind, she’ll have to win this one and the AIG Women’s Open to do it; sorry, Evian, you were late to this party.

Korda is the betting favorite by a wide margin. We may need to get creative, as she is unbettable at +300. Unlike Scottie’s 2026 campaign, this number one player in the world has been winning.

Major test

Hazeltine National Golf Club is a big kids’ course. Five of the 10 par 4s that make up this 6,760-yard par 72 layout are over 400 yards. The par 3s are manageable in length, but the 5s, three of those stretch over 530 yards. The club sits at almost 1,000 feet above sea level. Elevation will help the ball carry a couple of extra yards, but overall we are looking at a test that comes without a ton of roll. As you will see in the forecast, the HNGC region has been damp over the past 10 to 14 days. The 2016 Ryder Cup and two more PGA Championships during the Tiger years have been contested here. Reports from the property highlight healthy rough and a medium bounce. All 11 2026 LPGA winners are competing alongside 12 past champions. A few of those players crossover under both categories. They will be joined by eight PGA of America/LPGA qualifiers. The Men’s PGA Championship always boasts having the deepest field in golf, and the women’s edition is no different. The 36-hole cutline is no different as well. The low 70 and ties get to play the weekend.

Course Conditions, Weather, Wind

Hazeltine National has received approximately 2″ of rain in June. Yesterday, practice rounds were cancelled for the day at 5:15 pm local time.. The course is in excellent shape, and the water table YTD is 1.5″ under the annual average. Rain is also expected on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Saturday evening into Sunday morning looks like the worst of it. High temperatures will reach the high 70s on Thursday and Friday. By Sunday, it will be 85 degrees. The wind will start out of the north on Thursday and make its way around the compass, finishing out of the south-southeast by Sunday. The wind will be in the single digits on Thursday and Friday, and blow in the 12-14 mph range over the weekend.

Softer conditions will not hurt as the average green size at Hazeltine National is 5,000 sq/ft. Small targets by any tour’s standard, they are covered in Bentgrass blades. Surrounding those greens (and fairways) are 108 bunkers. Eight holes have water in play and the fairways average 27 yards wide. If you study this scorecard and setting, you quickly realize it is an oversized accuracy contest. That poses a problem for the field. One of the longest players on the LPGA, Nelly, is also one of the most accurate. Hence, in eight individual starts this season, Korda has four wins and three second-place finishes. LOL, her worst finish is a T8. Truth be told, the PGA of America should be cheering for Nelly to play well. Not just for the TV ratings, but for history. Korda missed the cut in 2023 and 2024 in this event. Last year, the LPGA traveled to the PGA’s home in Frisco, TX, and the weather caught the tournament officials by surprise in their setup of the golf course. That shouldn’t happen at HNGC. I expect a stout test, one that favors the best players. After all, who doesn’t want the most marketable woman in golf to win their event?

How to win?

Let’s take a trip back in time to 2019. Hannah Green won the Women’s PGA the last time it was played at Hazeltine National, but who were the contenders, and how can we use that leaderboard to our advantage? Here is the top 10 from that KPMG Women’s PGA Championship:

That is a very accuracy-heavy final leaderboard. Now some of those names may not be familiar to you, but rest assured those 13 women were accurate during that time on the LPGA. Many of them were major champions coming into Hazeltine National and I am sure that helped them contend on this course. HNGC spans 335 acres. Shinneock Hills was 200 acres and we all saw how big that property played. My first priority for picking players in the KPMG is getting the power-accuracy proportion correct. I’m favoring accuracy 67% over power 33%. The rough is really healthy and the greens are small. Contenders will be in the fairway to start. The good news, when it comes to Total Driving, that’s one category that Nelly does need to lead. We are running with the longest and straightest players off the tee. When deciding between two players for any given bet, once again I’m going with the more accurate player.

Fifty percent of approaches will be played from over 150 yards. Miss the fairway from that distance, and you’re in trouble. Get closer than your opponents, and you have an advantage. The best mid- to long-iron players also possess the same complement of speed and accuracy. If Inbee and Ariya were in the same top 10, that tells us something. Park was one of the most accurate during her time on tour with an iron (or wood) in her hand. Jutanugarn was one of the most powerful. In today’s terms, this is like comparing Lydia Ko and Haeran Ryu. Both can compete here. The best way to separate them is to start looking at a few more specific skills.

With 5,000 sq/ft greens, scrambling, bogey avoidance, and birdie-to-bogey ratio matter. Who are the best players when saving shots matters most? The winning score in 2019 was nine under par. Green made 15 birdies and six bogeys that week. No double bogeys and just a few bogeys succinctly tell us what it takes. By comparing a couple of analytics that tell us who the best scorers are from 50 yards and in will further help us select those who will separate. Scrambling also includes the use of the putter. Having studied HNGC from the 2016 Ryder Cup, I also know that par 4 scoring is essential. Hannah was three under par for the week on the 4s. One of the very few players who played the 4s under par. The 3s and 5s present scoring opportunities, while the fours present challenges. Play the 4s under par like Green, and you’ll win some green!

Hazeltine National is a tough T2G test. Since the LPGA has limited data, taking the best T2G players will give us a nice baseline. Separating out the ball striking will also help us better understand who the best putters are. Of course, using only strokes gained putting doesn’t always tell us the full story on the greens. Players can make putts at HNGC. Knowing who converts par-saving and sub-par chances is key. Strokes gained scoring, scrambling, and scoring average at this point in the season accurately reflect a player’s scoring capability. Finding the best Bentgrass putters over the past month plus as the LPGA visited New Jersey, Ohio, and Michigan was helpful as well. I then looked through the harder venues from 2026 and compared those leaderboards for common player trends. The end result of that study can be seen below.

LPGA – Free Picks

Jeeno Thitikul (+1500 FanDuel)

The number two-ranked player in the world is 15-1 to win a major championship! Jeeno Thitikul possesses the power and grace to win at Hazeltine National. Thitikul is one of the most talented players in the field and won a little over a month ago. Par 4 scoring, T2G, Total Driving, and the putter are all part of her weekly repertoire of skills out on tour. By far the best player without a major title, if anyone can take down Korda on a big girl course, it’s Jeeno.

Charley Hull (+3000 FanDuel)

Charley Hull is a major championship player. Second place at the US Open at Riviera three weeks ago, Hull is another player who has the power and scoring ability to handle this major championship test. Not many players feed off the pressure like Charley, and that focus level when the tournament is on the line gives her a serious edge. The skill set for HNGC is going to be very similar to Riviera. Hull’s well-rounded game fits both ballparks better than a vast majority of the field.