Preview & Picks: Valero Texas Open

One last Texas stop before The Masters, and it ain’t an easy one.

TPC San Antonio, home of the Valero Texas Open, consistently ranks as one of the toughest stops on TOUR.

It’s long, the greens are fast, and if it gets windy, it won’t yield a ton of birdies. Last year, Brian Harman won at -9 while shooting a 75 on Sunday. The wind turned the tournament into a war of attrition.

The field is pretty strong this year, even with Collin Morikawa dropping out and Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy staying home.

Tommy Fleetwood is at the top of the odds board, followed by Russel Henley, Bobby Mac, Jordan Spieth, Si Woo Kim, and Hideki Matsuyama.

Field Notes

  • Approach + putting decide this thing – SG: Approach (0.553) and SG: Putting (0.592) have the strongest correlation with winning here. Ball striking into these greens and converting putts matters more than anything else.

  • Distance helps, but accuracy still matters – Distance off the tee shows a solid edge (0.374), but with below-average driving accuracy (49.1%) and penal rough (0.26 missed fairway penalty), you can’t just bomb it everywhere.

  • Expect a grind, not a birdie fest – Scoring average sits at +0.48 over par, and GIR is just 56.3%. This course plays tough, especially in wind, so target players who are comfortable grinding it out.

The Details

Previous Winners

How To Watch

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Weekly Bets: Valero Texas Open

We’ve partnered with Keith Stewart at Read The Line to share his weekly golf betting picks with the Caddyshanks crew. If you’re the type who enjoys breaking down matchups, spotting trends, and hunting for value, you’ll feel right at home in the RTL community. Join Here.

Keith Stewart’s Picks

Robert MacIntyre (+2000 bet365)

Be cautious of Robert MacIntyre. The Texas terrain will allow him to excel around the greens with his Scottish short game. MacIntyre has been outstanding off the tee and on the green this season. His irons need more consistency, and they performed at THE PLAYERS, where Robert finished fourth. This is a player who will compete strongly as he heads into Augusta National. MacIntyre has one start at TPC San Antonio, where he gained two strokes on the field T2G and another two strokes with his putter. When putting and accuracy are crucial leaderboard qualities, I trust Bobby Mac!

Denny McCarthy (+4700 DraftKings)

We all know Denny McCarthy can score from close range. One of the best short game players and putters in the world, we are always looking for ball striking trends from McCarthy. Denny is gaining +0.75 strokes per round on approach over his last three starts. McCarthy’s iron game is seriously spiking. Denny was the runner-up at TPC San Antonio in 2024 with a back-nine 29 on Sunday. Denny’s finished inside the top 20 three years in a row on the Oaks Course, and never with this strong of an iron game.

Caddyshanks Picks

Si Woo Kim (+2150 Draftkings)

I toyed with the idea of picking Si Woo Kim to win at The Masters next week, but I just can’t do it, there are other picks next week who are just too intriguing. So, let’s slot a guy who’s had a stellar start to the season in for a win in Texas instead.

Sepp Straka (+2600 Draftkings)

The big man has played excellent golf this year, and has proved he can win in dicey weather, which we may get this weekend.

Just two picks from Caddyshanks this week. We’re saving for The Masters.