Ryu For Two!

For the second year in a row, we lost the Evian Championship in a playoff. This time it was two-time major champion Haeran Ryu who defeated Brooke Henderson on the first sudden-death hole. RTL readers will know Ryu is a favorite of ours dating back to her first win at the Walmart in 2023. We predicted that outright (+2500) and have published several betting cards featuring her since. The putter has always been what held her back. One of the top three ball strikers on Tour, if the positive vibes on the greens continue, Haeran has the ability to challenge Jeeno Thitikul and Nelly Korda for LPGA supremacy. From one winner to another, we head to Ayrshire, Scotland, and Dundonald Links for the ISPS HANDA Women’s Scottish Open. Lottie Woad is the defending champion at 21-under par. We cashed with Woad (+1800) last year, predicting her first career victory. On a side note, I love predicting a player’s first win. Those two winners in the opening paragraph emphasize our edge. Grabbing a player before they become a household name is one of the most rewarding parts of betting golf. Woad opened the Evian with rounds of 67 and 64 before a slightly over-par weekend dropped her to a T16 finish. That could actually help bettors, keeping her defending odds in a more favorable range. A great fit for this golf course, she and 29 of the top 50 players in the Rolex World Rankings will be looking to capture the LPGA’s next title. Like the men’s Scottish Open, this event is co-sanctioned with the Ladies European Tour. Browse the field and you’ll find plenty of unfamiliar names, giving us another opportunity to find value. I choose to look at Brooke Henderson’s runner-up finish as momentum. We won in Scotland two weeks ago with Tom Kim. Time to do it again.

Pitch and Putt

For the fifth consecutive year and sixth overall, Dundonald Links will host the world’s best women for the Scottish Open. Set along the Firth of Clyde with Royal Troon as its famous neighbor, Dundonald offers everything you’d expect from links golf. Irvine Bay can get a little wild this time of year, so hopefully the players packed plenty of rain gear. Unlike what the men faced at Royal Birkdale, these players should see plenty of green across the property. One of the shorter courses on the LPGA schedule, Dundonald is a par 72 measuring just 6,538 yards. While that number may not sound particularly short, the average par 4 measures only 386 yards, and eight of the 10 par 4s play under 400 yards. You’ll need to make birdies. Since returning to Dundonald in 2022, the average winning score has been 18-under par. Ayaka Furue (2022) and Lottie Woad (2025) both reached 21-under. Based on this week’s forecast, I expect another winning score around 18-under.

Course Conditions, Weather & Wind

The women won’t be seeing 80-degree temperatures in Ayrshire. Highs are expected to remain in the mid-60s, and with a west wind coming off the water, it will feel even cooler. The wind will shift between west-southwest and west-northwest throughout the week, making club selection a constant challenge as the routing changes direction repeatedly. Rain is expected to arrive on Friday, with gusts over 20 mph and intermittent showers sticking around through the weekend. Summer in Scotland. Dundonald sits on a relatively compact piece of seaside property, with all 18 holes weaving tightly together. The routing is excellent, but with 79 bunkers and several sharp doglegs, players who consistently keep the ball in play gain a significant advantage. Because so many par 4s are short, 13 of the 18 approach shots come from inside 150 yards. Even the par 5s are extremely scorable. Success here comes from taking advantage of scoring opportunities off the tee and stuffing wedges close. Looking back through the LPGA and LET leaderboards at Dundonald reveals a very clear blueprint for success. Lottie Woad’s three-shot victory over Hyo Joo Kim last season was especially impressive, as she was the only player to shoot all four rounds in the 60s.

How To Win

The last four champions at Dundonald — Ayaka Furue, Celine Boutier, Lauren Coughlin, and Lottie Woad — all have one thing in common: accuracy. With 45 fairway bunkers, constantly playing from the sand is a recipe for failure. Furue and Coughlin, in particular, rank among the LPGA’s most accurate drivers despite being well below average in distance. The winners have averaged hitting roughly 80% of their fairways while arriving in strong form. Furue entered playing well, Boutier had just won the Evian, Coughlin won in Canada a few weeks earlier, and Woad finished T3 at the Evian before winning here. Hot players tend to stay hot in Scotland. Putting is equally important. The last four champions gained an average of 11 strokes on the field with the flatstick, while recent top-10 finishers averaged five strokes gained putting. The greens may appear generous, but between the wind and subtle contours, they play much smaller than they look. The recent champions averaged an incredible 82% greens in regulation, giving themselves endless birdie opportunities. Approach play is critical, especially from 75 to 175 yards. Players who consistently create chances inside 20 feet separate themselves quickly. Ayaka Furue won here averaging just 208 yards off the tee, proving distance simply isn’t required. Instead, dominating the short par 4s is the key. Recent winners averaged better than 3.8 strokes on the par 4s while taking advantage of the par 5s whenever possible. Scrambling also matters. Recent top-10 finishers have converted more than 60% of their scrambling opportunities, and creativity around the greens becomes even more valuable when the Scottish weather turns ugly. Thankfully, Dundonald was built for Scottish “summer.” The LPGA utilizes eight alternate tee boxes to adjust for changing weather conditions throughout the week. With back-to-back major championships now complete, finding the hottest players isn’t difficult. Blend recent form with the statistical profile we’ve outlined, and here’s this week’s outright betting card.

LPGA Free Picks

Sei Young Kim (+1800 Caesars)

Sei Young Kim is a scoring machine who loves to hit driver. Ranked sixth on the LPGA in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Kim keeps the ball in play while ranking among the Tour’s best approach players. She’s also inside the top 25 in Putts per GIR, allowing her to capitalize on the birdie opportunities she creates. With a fifth-place finish at the U.S. Women’s Open, an eighth at the KPMG Women’s PGA Championship, and a third-place finish here last season, Kim enters Scotland with plenty of momentum.

Aki Iwai (+2800 bet365)

The best overall ball striker at the Evian Championship, Aki Iwai had every opportunity to win in France. Iwai led the field tee-to-green, was excellent with her irons, and narrowly missed the playoff by a single shot after finishing third. Recent finishes of T7 at the Dow Championship, T19 at the KPMG Women’s PGA Championship, and third at the Evian show her game is trending in exactly the right direction. One of only four players to shoot all four rounds in the 60s at the Evian, Iwai also finished T16 at Dundonald last year and looks poised to contend again.