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For the second time in as many weeks, we are diving deep into a major championship venue and field. Before we get to the KPMG Women’s PGA Championship, let’s take a brief look back at the Meijer LPGA. AIG Women’s Open Champion Miyu Yamashita made a birdie on the first playoff hole to defeat Lottie Woad. Woad was going for her second win in three starts. Yamashita fired a final round 64, tying the low round of the day, securing her third LPGA title. I doubt this will be the last time these two competitors meet late on a Sunday afternoon. Both under 24 years old, they have some years ahead of them. That was the third playoff to decide the Meijer in the last five years! Going up against the US Open is a useless endeavor, but if you did happen to catch the highlights, you saw an entertaining Sunday. A

fter a two-week tour in Michigan, the world’s best women head to Chaska, Minnesota. Hazeltine National Golf Club is no stranger to championship golf. In fact, the 2019 Women’s PGA was played at this venue. That edition was won by Hannah Green. Green is having a major year with two wins already on her 2026 resume. Built in 1962 by Robert Trent Jones, Hazeltine National welcomes a field of 156 players competing for a $13 million purse. The largest in women’s major championship golf! Well done, KPMG. Twenty-four of the top 25 players in the Rolex World Rankings are here to try and win the season’s third major championship. Considering Nelly Korda has won the first two major championships of 2026, we know what the first storyline is coming into HNGC. The best women in the world are vying for a season Grand Slam. In my mind, she’ll have to win this one and the AIG Women’s Open to do it; sorry, Evian, you were late to this party.

Korda is the betting favorite by a wide margin. We may need to get creative, as she is unbettable at +300. Unlike Scottie’s 2026 campaign, this number one player in the world has been winning.

Major test

Hazeltine National Golf Club is a big kids’ course. Five of the 10 par 4s that make up this 6,760-yard par 72 layout are over 400 yards. The par 3s are manageable in length, but the 5s, three of those stretch over 530 yards. The club sits at almost 1,000 feet above sea level. Elevation will help the ball carry a couple of extra yards, but overall we are looking at a test that comes without a ton of roll. As you will see in the forecast, the HNGC region has been damp over the past 10 to 14 days. The 2016 Ryder Cup and two more PGA Championships during the Tiger years have been contested here. Reports from the property highlight healthy rough and a medium bounce. All 11 2026 LPGA winners are competing alongside 12 past champions. A few of those players crossover under both categories. They will be joined by eight PGA of America/LPGA qualifiers. The Men’s PGA Championship always boasts having the deepest field in golf, and the women’s edition is no different. The 36-hole cutline is no different as well. The low 70 and ties get to play the weekend.

Course Conditions, Weather, Wind

Hazeltine National has received approximately 2″ of rain in June. Yesterday, practice rounds were cancelled for the day at 5:15 pm local time.. The course is in excellent shape, and the water table YTD is 1.5″ under the annual average. Rain is also expected on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Saturday evening into Sunday morning looks like the worst of it. High temperatures will reach the high 70s on Thursday and Friday. By Sunday, it will be 85 degrees. The wind will start out of the north on Thursday and make its way around the compass, finishing out of the south-southeast by Sunday. The wind will be in the single digits on Thursday and Friday, and blow in the 12-14 mph range over the weekend.

Softer conditions will not hurt as the average green size at Hazeltine National is 5,000 sq/ft. Small targets by any tour’s standard, they are covered in Bentgrass blades. Surrounding those greens (and fairways) are 108 bunkers. Eight holes have water in play and the fairways average 27 yards wide. If you study this scorecard and setting, you quickly realize it is an oversized accuracy contest. That poses a problem for the field. One of the longest players on the LPGA, Nelly, is also one of the most accurate. Hence, in eight individual starts this season, Korda has four wins and three second-place finishes. LOL, her worst finish is a T8. Truth be told, the PGA of America should be cheering for Nelly to play well. Not just for the TV ratings, but for history. Korda missed the cut in 2023 and 2024 in this event. Last year, the LPGA traveled to the PGA’s home in Frisco, TX, and the weather caught the tournament officials by surprise in their setup of the golf course. That shouldn’t happen at HNGC. I expect a stout test, one that favors the best players. After all, who doesn’t want the most marketable woman in golf to win their event?

How to win?

Let’s take a trip back in time to 2019. Hannah Green won the Women’s PGA the last time it was played at Hazeltine National, but who were the contenders, and how can we use that leaderboard to our advantage? Here is the top 10 from that KPMG Women’s PGA Championship:

That is a very accuracy-heavy final leaderboard. Now some of those names may not be familiar to you, but rest assured those 13 women were accurate during that time on the LPGA. Many of them were major champions coming into Hazeltine National and I am sure that helped them contend on this course. HNGC spans 335 acres. Shinneock Hills was 200 acres and we all saw how big that property played. My first priority for picking players in the KPMG is getting the power-accuracy proportion correct. I’m favoring accuracy 67% over power 33%. The rough is really healthy and the greens are small. Contenders will be in the fairway to start. The good news, when it comes to Total Driving, that’s one category that Nelly does need to lead. We are running with the longest and straightest players off the tee. When deciding between two players for any given bet, once again I’m going with the more accurate player.

Fifty percent of approaches will be played from over 150 yards. Miss the fairway from that distance, and you’re in trouble. Get closer than your opponents, and you have an advantage. The best mid- to long-iron players also possess the same complement of speed and accuracy. If Inbee and Ariya were in the same top 10, that tells us something. Park was one of the most accurate during her time on tour with an iron (or wood) in her hand. Jutanugarn was one of the most powerful. In today’s terms, this is like comparing Lydia Ko and Haeran Ryu. Both can compete here. The best way to separate them is to start looking at a few more specific skills.

With 5,000 sq/ft greens, scrambling, bogey avoidance, and birdie-to-bogey ratio matter. Who are the best players when saving shots matters most? The winning score in 2019 was nine under par. Green made 15 birdies and six bogeys that week. No double bogeys and just a few bogeys succinctly tell us what it takes. By comparing a couple of analytics that tell us who the best scorers are from 50 yards and in will further help us select those who will separate. Scrambling also includes the use of the putter. Having studied HNGC from the 2016 Ryder Cup, I also know that par 4 scoring is essential. Hannah was three under par for the week on the 4s. One of the very few players who played the 4s under par. The 3s and 5s present scoring opportunities, while the fours present challenges. Play the 4s under par like Green, and you’ll win some green!

Hazeltine National is a tough T2G test. Since the LPGA has limited data, taking the best T2G players will give us a nice baseline. Separating out the ball striking will also help us better understand who the best putters are. Of course, using only strokes gained putting doesn’t always tell us the full story on the greens. Players can make putts at HNGC. Knowing who converts par-saving and sub-par chances is key. Strokes gained scoring, scrambling, and scoring average at this point in the season accurately reflect a player’s scoring capability. Finding the best Bentgrass putters over the past month plus as the LPGA visited New Jersey, Ohio, and Michigan was helpful as well. I then looked through the harder venues from 2026 and compared those leaderboards for common player trends. The end result of that study can be seen below.

LPGA – Free Picks

 

Jeeno Thitikul (+1500 FanDuel)

The number two-ranked player in the world is 15-1 to win a major championship! Jeeno Thitikul possesses the power and grace to win at Hazeltine National. Thitikul is one of the most talented players in the field and won a little over a month ago. Par 4 scoring, T2G, Total Driving, and the putter are all part of her weekly repertoire of skills out on tour. By far the best player without a major title, if anyone can take down Korda on a big girl course, it’s Jeeno.

 

Charley Hull (+3000 FanDuel)

Charley Hull is a major championship player. Second place at the US Open at Riviera three weeks ago, Hull is another player who has the power and scoring ability to handle this major championship test. Not many players feed off the pressure like Charley, and that focus level when the tournament is on the line gives her a serious edge. The skill set for HNGC is going to be very similar to Riviera. Hull’s well-rounded game fits both ballparks better than a vast majority of the field.

 

Scheduling?

The LPGA threw their annual “Zurich Classic” style team event against the RBC Canadian Open last week. Back to a full field of 144 players in Belmont, Michigan for the Meijer LPGA Classic for Simply Give, the top 65 and ties will play the weekend for $3.25 million.

We have 10 of the top 25, and 23 of the top 50 players in the Rolex World Rankings in the field. Not bad for a week before the next major championship.

Another reason why the schedule makes little sense. A sweet $487,500 for first place, why not run the less attended — and watched — Dow Championship against the men’s major championship? Not to mention the week of rest you can offer to the world’s best women before the KPMG Women’s PGA Championship.

I fully realize schedule building is a complicated process involving global travel, sponsors, and venue ability. Similar to Brian Rolapp, Craig Kessler inherited this schedule. One can hope Kessler is an avid reader of RTL and changes are already in the works for 2027!

Enough is enough, we have Shinnecock on the calendar. Let’s jump to the course preview and card.

Back to Blythefield

Blythefield Country Club is one of the more unique layouts on the LPGA schedule. A par 72 scorecard, BCC has five par 3s, eight par 4s, and five par 5s.

A quick tangent, it always amazes me that more courses don’t design more creative scorecards. Do we need another par 72 with four 3s, four 5s, and ten par 4s? I love the creativity of this layout for a couple of reasons. The scorecard is one, but the terrain in combination with the five 3s and 5s really fits.

That same terrain allows for some very difficult green complexes. BCC’s greens are an average of 4,500 square feet. Those are some small targets across this hilly, tree-lined terrain near Grand Rapids, Michigan. Covered in a beautiful Bentgrass/Poa mix, those who can roll the rock have proven sub-par scores can be made.

The average winning score of this event over the first 11 years is 18.6 under par. Fun design and four out of 11 Meijers have ended in a playoff due to fun scoring.

Please LPGA, give this event a better home on the calendar!

Course Conditions, Weather, Wind

The Grand Rapids, Michigan region has received an ample amount of growing rain over the last few weeks in June. I’m not saying the course will play soft, just healthy, and that is worth noting.

Temperatures will be in the low to mid-70s for the tournament and a substantial breeze the first two days coming out of the Northwest, around 16–18 mph. There’s rain off and on all week, and that precipitation reaches a crescendo on Sunday with 0.75 inches in the forecast and a 45% chance of substantial rain all day.

Healthy rough, rain, and wind. If you are building a betting card for this event, it better include some serious ball strikers.

The course covers 6,611 yards; the eighth hole was lengthened in 2024. That sounds long, but Blythefield is the third-shortest course these women have seen on tour in 2026. Five of the eight par 4s measure over 400 yards, and the par-3 thirteenth is 234 on the card.

That being said, the remaining 12 holes are quite gettable for the best scorers in this field.

If you have played Blythefield, please note the LPGA uses a different routing for the tournament. The players start on holes eight and nine and then one through five, finishing the front nine with seventeen and eighteen. The back nine starts with 10 through 16 and completes the round with six and seven.

Seven is a reachable par 5, but also away from the clubhouse. I’m not sure why the LPGA switches it every year, but they have done it for some time.

How to Win?

A vast majority of weeks, par 4s dominate tournament scoring. A course with 12 par 4s accounts for two-thirds of the holes each competitor plays. Blythefield CC flips the script, and I absolutely love it.

Combine the 3s and 5s, and you now account for 56% of scoring, and the 4s get reduced to 32%. That’s a significant switch and one that allows for different players to climb the leaderboard.

The historical data tells us those par 5s take center stage for separating yourself from the field. The average winning score is nearly 19 under par, and with those long par 4s, this is the place to take advantage.

Par 5 scoring on the PGA TOUR means ball speed, but most women on the LPGA cannot reach par 5s in two. They need to hit the fairway off the tee to ensure they have a great chance to use a wedge for their third shot.

BCC is the perfect course for Total Driving leaders. The straight combination of length and accuracy.

Blythefield CC is built across a Michigan hillside. As the course weaves its way through the tree-lined fairways, players are constantly hitting golf shots from different angles and heights. The best T2G players have an advantage here.

Look at the past champions list! Lilia Vu was ranked second in the world last year when she won. Lexi Thompson was also in that playoff. Thompson is one of the best LPGA players of the last decade.

Inside the tree line, these fairways are framed by four-inch Kentucky Bluegrass rough. The same stuff we see at Muirfield Village Golf Club and so many other courses up north. We know from the weather forecast that it has been — and will get — watered.

Nine of the 11 Meijer winners are major champions. Approach will play a lead role with five par 3s. That’s five iron shots each day where you know the yardage ahead of time and you get a level lie! Over the course of 20 par 3s, that’s an advantage for the best proximity players.

With the great course conditions, there’s a good chance our winner will get to 20 under par. It has happened four times in the last seven Meijer tournaments.

When you must gain with sub-par scores, I always combine rounds in the 60s with Scoring Average. Blythefield can trip you up with the juicy rough, so a positive birdie-to-bogey ratio is another factor to consider along with Bogey Avoidance.

Not as much a factor as it will be for the men, our ladies in Michigan must be able to keep their rounds going. Around-the-green play from dense rough will be needed. The greens are small, the second-smallest these women will see all year.

The highest-ranked approach player in the field is Lauren Coughlin, seventh on tour. Even Lauren is going to miss a bunch of greens and her short game will be needed. The favorite, Jeeno Thitikul, is ranked 42nd on tour for approach. Imagine how many chips and pitches the second-ranked woman in the world will hit!

Those scoring stats are fueled by the flatstick. Good to very good putters can make putts on these greens. Heck, hit the green and you have a sub-25-foot birdie putt!

The surfaces are that northern Bentgrass-Poa mix, so they are rolling perfectly in the Michigan climate. Another factor that gives better putters an advantage is their ability to read greens correctly. With all of the terrain changes across this layout, reading greens is difficult in spots.

Of the four main strokes gained categories, putting was the second-most correlated to success after driving. When you look at the layout, you start to see these little edges develop. Take them into account and the outright card becomes very clear.

Riviera measured driving and putting quite well. Toss in above-average approach play and that leaderboard will give us some very good clues. The last factor I used as a baseline was SG: T2G. An excellent measure to confirm our initial leans.

The Meijer will be awesome. I know we all will be watching Shinnecock Hills, but if 100+ hours of Golf Channel, NBC, and USA Sports coverage is not enough, change the channel. The women in Michigan are set for another made-for-TV week at the Meijer in Michigan!

LPGA – Free Picks

Allisen Corpuz (+2250 DraftKings)

The Meijer rewards great ball strikers with tight fairways and small greens. Allisen Corpuz is one of the best in the business when it comes to T2G acumen.

Seventh in the field for SG: T2G, Corpuz is coming off a great stretch where she has a seventh-place finish at the Mizuho and an eighth-place finish at the U.S. Open. A fifth- and an eleventh-place finish in her last three starts at Blythefield CC only further validates this pick.

Minami Katsu (+4500 BetRivers)

Another fifth-place finisher at the Dow Championship, Minami Katsu continues to contend on the LPGA Tour. Six top-15 finishes on the LPGA this year alone, we are going to catch Katsu’s first win. We almost had it in Shanghai last year!

A seventh-place finish at the Meijer in 2023 means there is plenty of BCC experience on her resume. A great putter who can really score, this venue makes sense.

Why not a little revenge on Jeeno after she stole the Buick from us last fall? Par 3s and 5s, Katsu checks both of those boxes.

Attention shoppers!

For the third time in five years, RTL predicts the winner of the ShopRite LPGA.

Although it is only a three -day event, 19-1 still pays! Celine Boutier played well early on a very windy Saturday, putting herself in position for a Sunday charge. A final round 66 with six birdies and a closing 32 on the back nine gave France another big win this weekend. I’m not sure if Boutier is a big PSG fan, but both can certainly celebrate along with our readers.

From the Atlantic Ocean, the LPGA travels to the West Coast and Pacific Palisades,to be exact, for the 81st United States Women’s Open. A field of 156 players will compete for a $12+ million purse and a $2+ million first-place prize. Worth more than that medal the USGA gives you, a win also includes a 10–year exemption into the women’s national championship. Riviera Country Club is the seventeenth venue to host the US Women’s Open since the first championship in 1946. Maja Stark is our defending champion. Curious about her chances to successfully defend, the last repeat winner was Karrie Webb in 2001. Prior to Webb, Annika Sorenstam did it in 1995 and 1996. Betsy King, Hollis Stacy, Susie Berning, Donna Caponi, and Mickey Wright have all successfully defended their national titles. Seven in total, that’s a bunch for 80 years! The last debutant to win was A Lim Kim in 2020.

All top 10 in the Rolex World Rankings are competing. In fact, the first 46 on the Rolex board are in the field. What most would consider the most prestigious women’s major championship, many players have their sights set on playing out their own Hollywood ending…

“Riv“

 

For the fourth time in its history, and the first time for the women’s national championship, Riviera Country Club plays host to the USGA. Best known for the PGA TOUR’s Genesis Invitational in February, in the coming years, Riviera will also host the 2028 Olympics and the Men’s US Open in 2031. A wonderful George Thomas track (1927), “The Riv,” will test all aspects of a player’s game. The par 71 scorecard stretches 6,699 yards for the US Women’s Open. Fifty-eight perfectly placed bunkers provide the only penalty areas, as there are no water holes on this Pacific Palisades paradise. A wonderful set of winding fairways gives way to severalincredible green complexes. I know the venue moves annually, but the USGA has a scoring goal in mind for each championship. The average winning score of this open event is 7.6 under par over the last decade. We have seen three playoffs to decide the winner in that time frame, and three other US Women’s Opens played in the state of California during those 10 years as well.

Course Conditions, Weather, Wind

 

The weather forecast is amazing for the world’s best women. The temperature should climb to low 70s each afternoon around the same time that wind kicks up off the Pacific Ocean. The breeze should blow around 10-12 mph each day around 3:00 pm PT from the SSW. No rain is in the forecast for the tournament week. The rain gauge has been empty the last few months in Los Angeles. The region is five inches behind for total rain YTD. If you remember the Genesis in February, then you know how wet the course was for the men. This version will make the USGA happy as they can firm up Thomas’ track as much as they want!

What will firm conditions mean for the field of LPGA, LET, and amateur stars? It is not often that the LPGA competes on a regular PGA TOUR course. We have plenty of player data from each TOUR event, but how does that apply to the women’s game? That’s the ultimate RTL benefit of covering both tours. The average green size at Riviera is 7,500 sq/ft, and those putting surfaces are covered in a typical California Poa Annua. Surrounding those intricate greens are Kikuyu rough and collars. The approaches and fairways are Kikuyu as well. Will the introduction of Kikuyu grass to the LPGA tour make a big difference? It might, more native to Australia, pay attention to those ladies coming from down under, as they are far more familiar with this type of grass. The fairways all seem to bend at Riviera. Thomas was an expert at keeping players off kilter. As much as most fans think of the Riviera CC clubhouse sitting high above the eighteenth green, the course is quite flat. The first tee shot and final hole have some significant terrain changes, but overall, Riviera is more about left to right than up and down.

Will Riviera give us a Hollywood ending? The LPGA has played 10 events in the Los Angeles region since RTL started covering the tour in 2022. There have been some very interesting trends in that time. One player in particular loves LA, and we have won with her already this year! As always, when it comes to handicapping the world’s best women, we will dive deeper than the analytics. I have some historic notes from each of those events and the ability to compare how LPGA skills will apply to an annual PGA TOUR venue.

How to win?

The US Women’s Open is truly a unique event on the LPGA schedule. Unlike any other tournament the world’s best women play, this one rewards THE best ball strikers. The last eight Opens were captured by queens of off-the-tee power and around the green grace. Their approach ability was consistently sharp, and the putter kept them out of trouble. Saso (twice), Stark, Ariya Jutanugarn, Corpuz, and Minjee Lee were all at the height of their impact ability when they took this title home. To handicap this field, we must pay attention to the best ball strikers. Too many times we have gotten caught up in the putter or wedge, and what this event always comes down to is the elite OTT and APP players. Take that trend and multiply it by five as we head to one of the most difficult tests on the West Coast for professional golf.

Keep it out of the Kikuyu grass. That mandate starts off the tee. Many LPGA Official Scorecards list one yardage, and then it plays shorter each day. The USGA does not subscribe to that policy. They make it tough for these women, and that’s the first reason why you need the best ball strikers. It is going to play long even with the firm conditions. Longer than a weekly LPGA event. Does this favor Jeeno and Nelly? Of course it does, and it will make it even harder to beat them. Then again, they are the two best female players on the planet by a wide margin. Is it tough to beat Scottie Scheffler? Yes! I like Total Driving for this situation. Who are the longest and most accurate players OTT. We know from our on-site Genesis coverage that Riviera favors a slight left-to-right ball flight. A power fade for righties is the ideal trajectory.

Riv has above-average-sized greens at 7,500 sq/ft. Covered in that Pacific Poa Annua, they will putt much smoother than what we always see in February. Much like one of Riviera’s great comp courses, Augusta National, it is tough to gain a ton of strokes on the greens. I believe an average putter can win this week. I would (of course) rather run with a great putter, but the priority is going to be ball striking over the flatstick. These larger-than-average targets will require expert proximity to have a chance to score. Approach play from the fairway is key. Kikuyu fairways area different surface to play from. The better iron players will adjust quicker to the new turf. Pickers over diggers, with firm conditions, we will be taking the best women with a shallow angle of attack. No pelts, please; adjustments from the Kikuyu rough are also going to be needed. Riviera winners always have a great week with their irons, and this National Championship will be no different.

PGA TOUR pros hit the greens less than 60% of the time at Riviera. The TOUR average is 66%. Compound the challenge with firm conditions, and here is where the secret sauce to win the US Open is hidden: short game. Riviera has some of the most difficult bunkers on the PGA TOUR. They are deep and flat at the bottom. It takes a ton of speed and confidence to hit par–saving shots from them. Then, the closely mown or long Kikuyu is another problem. These women are going to miss GIRs, and very few of the elite players are great around the green. Some of the best ball strikers are extremely poor at pitching and chipping. The ability to play from tee TO green is imperative. The best ARG competitors in this field of 156 players have a measurable edge on their opponents. The average par 4 is over 400 yards; scrambling is going to be a factor.

The firm conditions and the USGA’s fascination with even par scores do scare me. If the navy jackets make this track too firm, luck may play a part in deciding this major championship. If that’s the case, our best chance to win falls with the women on our outright list. Besides the four basic strokes gained categories, par 4 scoring,and birdie to bogey ratio are key. Straight bogey avoidance also helps us determine the best par savers. Riviera is a well-rounded test, and one where a majority of the women will not break par. That’s good news, because it eliminates several weekly contenders because they lack the complete list of skills needed to win.

LPGA – Free Picks

 

Hannah Green (+1800 DraftKings)

If you have followed the LPGA the last four years, then you know there is only one LA Woman, and that is Hannah Green. Green has won three of the last four LA Opens. Two of which were played at Wilshire Country Club in Los Angeles proper. A classic design and wonderful comp course for Riviera, Hannah also has two wins in 2026. Need another reason besides Green’s great ball striking and short game? How about kikuyu grass? Green is one of the few players who is from Australia and has experience on Riviera’s unique turf.

 

Charley Hull (+4500 Bet Rivers)

If any player on the LPGA tour was destined to become a Hollywood star, it would be Charley Hull. Hull also has two top 10s at nearby Wilshire Country Club in the LA Open and three straight top 20s in the US Open. Three years ago, Charley finished runner-up at Pebble Beach in the national championship. Fifteenth at Aramco and tenth at the Chevron Championship, Hull knows how to prepare for the big stage. A win earlier this year on the LET, when the bright lights of Hollywood shine, Charley can capture this championship.

 

 

US Open Prep.

It has been a weird run–up to the LPGA’s second major championship of the season. The world’s best women will be in Los Angeles at the famed Riviera Country Club for the United States Women’s Open. In preparation for the toughest test of the year, a field of 144 plan to compete in Galloway, New Jersey, in the ShopRite LPGA powered by Wakefern. Hopefully, Wakefern is a code word for private jet, because a Sunday finish and cross–country trip to California will take a toll on the top 65 and ties who play on Sunday. I mention Sunday, because the cut will not happen until Saturday night. The ShopRite is one of two 54-hole events remaining on the schedule. I know grocery prices have gone up, but throwing a three-day event on the shortest course the LPGA plays across the country from the US Open is a tough sell for ShopRite. Heck, they could have played this event last week and given the women more time to prepare for the national championship.

As expected, only five of the top 25 in the Rolex Rankings are competing. The betting favorite is Hye Jin Choi (+750). Please don’t take this the wrong way. Read The Line loves the ShopRite. We have picked the winner twice 2022 (Brooke Henderson) and 2023 (Ashleigh Buhai) in the last four years. In order to grab number three, we will continue to use our winning ShopRite strategy. It starts with having played Seaview’s Bay Course many times. Analyzing a course you have played and covered on-site is very helpful. We also grabbed those two wins before the LPGA published any strokes gained data. With the upgrade of their analytic offerings and local knowledge, it is time to grab number three at Seaview, and for the year.

Ross three-peat

 

The Seaview Resort is a historic golf venue. The majestic white hotel sits above 36-holes designed by two of the great architects of the golden age of golf courses. The William Flynn Pines Course heads inland behind the hotel, and Donald Ross’ Bay Course extends from the front porch out toward the sea. The Bay Course stretches to 6,263 yards and plays to a par 71. The shortest test on tour, the women will play eight (of 11) par 4s under 400 yards. Even the average par 5 is only 490 yards. This is one of the most fan-friendly events on any tour. You can see every hole from a couple of vantage points, and many of the fairways run parallel to one another. A couple of tee boxes were added last year to increase the scorecard length. The average winning score over the last decade is 14.4 under par (for three rounds). It’s an entertaining course to watch a tournament because the field can birdie or bogey any hole, depending on the conditions. The Bay Course is so exposed, and you can see it during the coverage.

Course Conditions, Weather, Wind

 

New Jersey witnessed a miserable Memorial Day weekend. It rained approximately 1-2″ inches across all different parts of the state. Much like the rest of the country, there was a drought. That’s no longer the case and although we have no rain in the forecast for Friday through Sunday, the golf course is going to play on the softer side. Temperatures are supposed to reach the low 70s, but the Bay Course is on the water and the real feel will be cooler. Thankfully, the wind prediction is around 10 mph for the three days. It will blow harder at Seaview than the web says, but that’s a decent starting point.

Even with 93 bunkers and 6,000 sq/ft greens (on average), the field will score. That’s the DNA of the Bay Course. The ShopRite has seen Hall of Famers and first-timers win because the layout is so short. If you take the top BoB% players on tour and tell them they need to average five birdies a day under normal conditions, 15ladies (minimum) can do that. I’m praying the forecast holds up. The weather can be a wildcard at the ShopRite. The skill set needed to win is specific for Seaview. If the forecast holds, we will contend and have a great chance to win. Our weekly coverage of the LPGA will be a great asset in assessing this field. With the US Open across the country in eight days, we don’t have a deep roster of usual suspects. The field in Mexico was deeper. Hopefully, the LPGA gets a handle on this schedule and starts to figure this out. The Mizuho had a great field, but that was three weeks ago. In the last six weeks, the LPGA has collected two strong events. It’s April and May! Fans complain about the two overseas tours to Asia, but we are in peak season, and nobody is playing.

Tight fairways, plenty of bunkers, and hopefully some wind will give these ladies a decent test. It’s a shoot-out at the Jersey Shore. Let’s find some women who can make 5+ birdies per round for three straight days.

How to win?

 

Breaking down the ShopRite is all about accuracy. The course is very short for modern LPGA standards. The tour continues to go here because the crowds give the ladies tremendous support, but under normal conditions, it is not a professional test. The lead skill we seek is approach play. Our two RTL winners, Henderson and Buhai, were in the top 5 on tour for iron play when they won. The average approach length is short at Seaview’s Bay Course. Five of the 11 par 4s are under 350 yards in length. Add in a very short par 3 on 17, and that’s six approaches (33%) where you must create close birdie chances. Remember, the winning score is 14 or 15 under par over three rounds. Our contenders are looking to fire five under par per day to keep pace. Those six short-range approaches are important. Since the LPGA lacks specific proximity data, how can we measure who separates on short par 4s? I like par 5 scoring at the ShopRite for this reason and a couple of others.

Players who can score on the 5s have a unique combination of skills. First, they score from close range. The modern professional golfer pushes the ball down to the green in two on a par 5. That third scoring shot comes from inside 100 yards. The best birdie makers on par 5s excel on this last approach. Six par 4s and all three par 5s will reward this skill set at the ShopRite. That’s half the holes these ladies will play each day. If you can birdie four or five of those nine, you are on pace to win. Those sub-par scores are the easiest to make on tour. The second skill on par 5s that applies on the Bay Course is your long iron or fairway wood approach in two. All three par 5s are reachable at Seaview, as the average length is 490 yards for the 5s.

Those three long-iron swings on the 5s also correlate to success on the par 3s. If the Bay Course challenges anything, it is par 3 scoring. Outside of the short seventeenth, the other par 3s are over 180 yards. Each one has a small, undulating green. As we have seen the past three weeks on tour, Ross was notorious for testing players on par 3s. Add up those three tee shots and the three long second swings on the par 5s, and that’s six more situations where players can separate. The final key par 5 player trait is making birdie or better. The scoring average of the last three top 10s at the ShopRite after three rounds is 4.5 on the 5s. The leaders are going low on these holes. It doesn’t matter what the weather is; this collection of par 5s is very scoreable. You must average two birdies per day on those three holes.

Looking through the recent top 10s from the 2022 to 2025 leaderboards, putting ranks second in strokes gained importance. That makes sense, because this is a three-day shoot-out. Wind–swept courses like this one are required to have relatively benign putting greens because the slopes will not hold balls in the wind. They do have shelves and sections, but when you get on the right plateau, the putting becomes very straightforward. The average green is small, 6,000 sq/ft. Hit the green, and you have a legitimate birdie chance. The defending champion, Jennifer Kupcho, gained nearly three strokes per round last year with her flatstick. Women will make putts, and since scoring is all that counts, you have to pay attention to those who are trending on the greens. Consider this as well, we just left TWO Ross–designed venues. Did Donald create all of those putting surfaces? No. But the Ross DNA is there, and it exists at the Bay Course too.

How much should we pay attention to short game and OTT play? Seaview might be the only course across the LPGA and PGA TOUR where the driver really does not matter. Can it help with the 5s? Yes. There are so many short holes at Seaview, you just need to hit your wedges (very) close. That’s the consideration for the short game as well. Sure, the ladies will miss some greens, but these surfaces are really windswept flat. A decent around the green player will do fine here. You don’t really need to worry about bunker play, etc., because the field is hitting approach shots from such close range. We’re not going to overthink this; we have predicted the winner here twice. Approach, approach, approach, pick the player who will hit 75% of her GIRs, make 18 sub-par scores in three rounds, and that’s the winner.

Will any part of this event help us handicap next week? Probably not. The USGA will have Riviera set up 500+ yards longer. The driver will play a huge role in the Pacific Palisades and mid- to long- iron play. Keep an eye on the putter at Seaview. We will want to know who is popping with the flatstick, but overall, this three-round event is as much of a one–off format as is the skill set needed. Enjoy the entertainment and the NJ crowds. Nine of the last 11 ShopRites were won by one stroke or in a playoff. After a miserable Memorial Day weekend, things are about to heat up down at the Jersey Shore.

LPGA – Free Picks

 

Celine Boutier (+1900 DraftKings)

The 2021 ShopRite winner, Celine Boutier has been on a tear with her iron game on the last two Donald Ross venues. Ninth place at the Mizuho and sixteenth at the Kroger, the former champ is locked in on approach. The difference with Boutierversus some of the other middle-tier prospects is her putter. When Celine is scoring and stacking up top 20 results, it is always a well-rounded resume. Third in the field for rounds recorded in the 60s, and fourth in round one scoring, watch for the French lady to get off to a fast start and take this title home with a wire-to-wire finish.

Jodi Ewart-Shadoff (+7200 DraftKings)

Following the LPGA intensely for four straight years, I can say with confidence, Jodi Ewart-Shadoff at 72-1 is a total misprice. The second-best approach player in the field has proven she can play Seaview. In her last five starts on the Bay Course, Ewart-Shadoff has three results in the top 12. One of those finishes was a third place in 2022. Jodi finished sixth in Mexico earlier in May, another accuracy-driven design. When the number one skill needed is iron play, put JES on the card. Sixth in par 5 scoring, there are other skills Shadoff has that will promote contending again at the shore.

Last week, we had a birdie-fest.

This week, we should have something more challenging (depending on the weather).

The host venue this week, Colonial, has a rich history. Ben Hogan won five times here, and it’s the longest running tournament held at the same venue on TOUR.

They’ve been playing here for 80 years, yet since Hogan’s time, no one has ever won back-to-back. He did it twice, by the way.

Secondly, Colonial is narrow, with small greens – it’s not a bombers course.

Now, I am no golf course architecture expert, but I’ve noticed a theme.

At courses like Riviera, Harbour Town, and Colonial, all of the sudden how far the pros hit the ball doesn’t matter as much, and the golf seems to be way more enjoyable to watch.

What do those courses have in common?

They were all built before 1950, they are all old-school, strategic “shot-maker” courses that reward precision over power. They emphasize placing tee shots in the right spots, controlling approach angles, and hitting accurate irons into smaller or well-protected greens.

Here are the key stats for Colonial:

• Prioritize elite iron players and putters. The two strongest within-event correlations with SG Total are SG Putting at 0.648 and SG Approach at 0.610, well ahead of off-the-tee and around-the-green. For betting, that points toward players gaining consistently on approach who also have a credible putting spike in their profile.
• Build around the 125–175 yard approach window. The biggest approach buckets are 125–150 yards: 20.1% and 150–175 yards: 20.9%, so roughly 41% of approaches come from those two ranges alone. Proximity and scoring from short-to-mid irons should matter more here than generic long-iron or wedge-only splits.
• Don’t overrate driving accuracy by itself. Colonial is narrow, with 29.9-yard fairways and only 54.7% driving accuracy, but the correlation of accuracy to SG Total is just 0.169, while distance is 0.289 and total SG Off the Tee is 0.444. The betting takeaway: look for controlled drivers who can gain off the tee without being reckless, but don’t automatically downgrade longer players just because they miss fairways.

 

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Weekly Bets: 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson

A major championship, a historic venue, and perfect weather on deck.

Does it get any better?

Nope.

Especially if Aronimink puts up a good fight, and we can avoid a birdie-fest.

Will Aronimink put up a good fight, though?

According to Scottie Scheffler, that will largely depend on whether the course is firm and fast, or softened by rain.

We’ve had a lack of humidity up here, and the temperatures over the weekend will reach the mid-80s, so we are hoping for firm and fast.

For the record, Ben Griffin said he expects things to get quick, and predicted a winning score of 12-under, which would be wonderful.

 

“Bomb and gouge works best”

“The reward for hitting the fairway is not that great”.

Scottie’s thoughts on the PGA setup are honest but not exciting to hear.

Deep rough lined fairways promote distance, not accuracy. This is counter intuitive to most.
pic.twitter.com/DhCQNV02xh

— Rick Golfs (@Top100Rick) May 13, 2026

Just hearing the World No. 1 say the words “bomb and gouge” makes me shudder, but what can you do?

These guys hit it a mile.

Speaking of Scottie Scheffler, he headlines the field and, as per usual, is the shortest price on the odds board, just ahead of Rory McIlroy, who, by the way, has been dealing with a sore toe and cut his practice round short yesterday.

Meanwhile, everyone else gets to play the game of “Who can beat Scottie and Rory this week?”

On at least six occasions this year, the answer to that question has been: Chris Gotterup, Cameron Young, or Matt Fitzpatrick.

They are all also in the field this week, and you could bet any one of them to win and not feel bad about it.

The field is loaded with every big-name player you can think of, along with PGA Professionals like Michael Block, and past champions like Padraig Harrington, Jimmy Walker, and Shawn Micheel.

Thankfully, there is a cut line this week. They still keep those for the majors.

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Weekly Bets: 2026 PGA Championship

We’ve partnered with Keith Stewart at Read The Line to share his weekly golf betting picks with the Caddyshanks crew. If you’re the type who enjoys breaking down matchups, spotting trends, and hunting for value, you’ll feel right at home in the RTL community.

Keith Stewart’s Picks

 

Cameron Young (+1650 DraftKings)

 

In his last seven starts, Cameron Young has two wins — The PLAYERS and Cadillac — and four additional top 10s.

Young’s flatstick consistency is the engine behind his current success. Pair that with his ball-striking, and you have a championship-caliber player.

Need a good comp? How about a T3 at the 2022 PGA at Southern Hills. Gil Hanse did both restorations, and the skill set needed to score on both is eerily similar.

 

Sam Burns (+7000 bet365)

 

Sam Burns has finished top 13 or better in three of the last four major-like events, including 13th at The PLAYERS, 7th at The Masters, and 7th at the 2025 U.S. Open.

Aronimink gives you an edge if you can bomb it off the tee, wedge it close, and convert on the green.

That’s Burns’ bread and butter.

If Sam survives the par 3s this week, the rest of the scorecard is one big birdie chance.

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Caddyshanks Picks

 

Scottie Scheffler (+385 DraftKings)

 

Scottie Scheffler struggled with his iron play to start the season, but he’s quietly returned to form in that regard, and that could spell bad news for everyone.

Last year, he won this major by five strokes.

 

Tommy Fleetwood (+2800 DraftKings)

 

A European has not won the PGA Championship in its last 10 iterations.

That’s a trend we are fading this week.

Tommy Fleetwood has the accuracy required to win if things get crispy in Philly this week.

 

Justin Rose (+4600 DraftKings)

 

It’s been 13 years since Justin Rose won a major championship.

He’s played a lot of great golf the last few years, and he’s had plenty of close calls at majors.

Now, he’s back in Philadelphia, and no one is giving him a shot because he switched to McLaren irons — and because he’s older.

But I love to bet a good storyline.