Preview & Picks: AP Invitational
Plus: Rory Documentary, Tom Sim, and More.
Josey Orr
March 04, 2026
Good Afternoon. Amazon Prime is releasing a documentary on March 30th called “
CHIP SHOTS Around the Green are MUCH EASIER with this Short Game Technique
In this helpful video, Danny Maude breaks down:
Chipping and pitching stance
Chipping vs Pitching technique - what's the difference
Simple short game drill - the POP & STOP
Ball position for chipping
Chipping distance control
More Golf Tips:
Tom Kim? More Like Tom Sim
This was possibly the biggest moment in TGL history. They seemed excited, but the only question that matters is - do the fans care?
More Golf Videos:
Preview & Picks: AP Invitational
You never really know what you’re going to get with golf.
Last week we expected a sleepy finish at the Cognizant… and instead Shane Lowry gave us an early contender for Collapse of the Year. Not the way he drew it up, but at least it kept things interesting.
This week should be a little different.
The field is stacked, the purse is $20 million, and we’re at Arnie’s place - Bay Hill.
Bay Hill is one of the most predictive courses on TOUR. If you’ve played well here before, there’s a good chance you’ll do it again. The same names tend to show up year after year.
Tiger won this thing eight times. Scottie Scheffler already has two. If Scottie added a third this week, nobody would even blink.
And yet… Bay Hill still bites.
It’s consistently one of the toughest tests on TOUR. Water is in play on half the holes, the rough is thick and penal, and even the best players in the world can suddenly look like they forgot how to swing a golf club.
Field Notes
Approach play is the biggest separator. SG: Approach had the highest correlation again in 2024 (0.59), confirming that Bay Hill is still a second-shot golf course. Nearly 40% of approaches come from 150–200 yards, so strong mid-iron players have a clear edge.
Scrambling remains critical. Greens in regulation hover around 58–59%, meaning players miss plenty of greens. With SG: Around the Green (~0.49 correlation) consistently important, bettors should prioritize players who can scramble and save par.
Distance matters more than accuracy. SG: Off the Tee stays strong (~0.48 correlation) while driving accuracy remains relatively weak. Bay Hill rewards bombers who can attack with longer irons, not fairway finders.
Sharper Angle Bettors Often Miss
Long-iron players gain a hidden edge. A noticeable chunk of approaches come from 175–225+ yards, including a meaningful share over 200 yards. That means players who rank well in proximity from 175–225 yards or SG: Approach from long range tend to outperform the field here more than the betting market usually prices in.
The Details
Previous Winners
How To Watch
Featured Groups:
PGA TOUR LIVE is available exclusively on ESPN+ and consists of four streams.
Weekly Bets: AP Invitational
We’ve partnered with Keith Stewart at Read The Line to share his weekly golf betting picks with the Caddyshanks crew. If you’re the type who enjoys breaking down matchups, spotting trends, and hunting for value, you’ll feel right at home in the RTL community. Join Here.
Keith Stewart’s Picks
Collin Morikawa (+2700 DraftKings)
Say what you want about the TGL, but what I saw from Collin Morikawa at the SoFi Center on Monday night was enough. Couple that with his win at Pebble Beach, and Morikawa is back to avenge last year’s runner-up finish at API. I have watched Collin compete on-site many times, and I have never seen him swing it better. Winning takes a little luck, and that’s all Morikawa will need, because let me tell you, he has the ball striking covered. Wow.
Min Woo Lee (+4500 BetMGM)
Min Woo Lee is coming off two great signature starts on the West Coast. The dynamic star from down under is driving the ball exceptionally well and scoring from close range. Lee’s short game and putting are both ranked inside the top eight in the field. When Bay Hill becomes a brick over the weekend, Min Woo has an advantage. His elite driving will create better approach chances, and his putter will convert. A strong left-to-right ball flight off the tee, and great form from 175-225 on approach, means we are looking at the next signature star on the PGA TOUR.
Caddyshanks Picks
Si Woo Kim (+2700 Fanduel)
There’s been few golfers on the planet who’ve played as well as Si Woo has this year, but he hasn’t been able to convert that stellar play into a win yet. It will happen at some point this season. He’s played a Bay Hill 5x in his career, with his best finish, T19, coming last year.
Hideki Matsuyama (+3300 Fanduel)
If you read this newsletter, you know I love Hideki. He had a heartbreaker at the WM Open, but his game has been on point. TPC Scottsdale success tends to correlate with Bay Hill, plus he’s one of the best on TOUR when it comes to SG:APP 200+ yards. Yes, he’s been spraying his driver all over the place, but if he can reel that in - expect a win soon.
Scottie Scheffler (+330 Fanduel)
Like we said above, is anyone going to be surprised if Scottie wins here for the 3rd time? No.
With 2nd Swing
Highest Trade-In Values In The Industry
Every golfer has a pile of old clubs sitting in the garage.
Instead of letting them collect dust, trade them in at 2nd Swing Golf. They offer some of the highest trade-in values in the game, and you can trade in as many clubs as you want - even rangefinders and GPS units.
Check the 2nd Swing Value Guide to see what your gear is worth and turn it into credit toward something new.
Shots Heard Round The World
Deal of The Day: 40% OFF Bogey Boys
Look, I am the type of guy who likes to wear the occasional loud outfit on the golf course.
My friends make fun of me sometimes, but that’s fine, because I think they dress like mid-level accountants.
With that being said, everyone should have a fun golf outfit or two for when the occasion calls for it.
I would recommend these pants, which come in a variety of colors, and are incredibly comfortable and stretchy. Yes, they are pleated, and pleats aren’t for everyone and that’s okay, but they are also 40% OFF along with a ton of other stuff on their site.
That’s A Wrap…
Before you go: just a few questions for ya.
Want More Golf Perks?
Want To Hit The Ball Further?
Want To Support A Small Business?
Want To Partner With Caddyshanks?
Until next time,
Caddyshanks team.
What'd you think of today's newsletter? |
