Evening Entertainment
From the western shores of England to the Pacific Coast of the United States, the LPGA must rack up a zillion frequent-flyer miles every season.
Portland, Oregon, is the next stop for the Standard Portland Classic.
Five of the top 10 players in the world are part of the 144-player field. The top 65 and ties will play the weekend for a $2 million purse, with $300,000 going to the winner.
This return to the United States officially marks the start of the second half of the season.
I’m not going to mention season-ending CME points—we’ll save that conversation for later—but only 10 events remain on the LPGA’s regular-season schedule.
Many in the media world claim the major championship season is a sprint. But once those elite events are over, there really isn’t much time left in the regular season.
We’ve had plenty of success over the years in Portland.
Who could forget hitting Andrea Lee at +4500 in 2022?
Another first-time winner, and RTL turned that Portland Classic into a nice profit.
The ladies are on West Coast time this week, a couple of hours behind the limited field in Memphis.
Enjoy the evening coverage, and let’s find our next women’s winner.
Hall Pass
The first Portland Classic took place in 1972.
More than 50 years later, we return to Columbia Edgewater Country Club for the 38th time.
A stereotypical Pacific Northwest parkland layout, CECC is defined by narrow fairways and small green complexes.
The scorecard has been lengthened slightly—63 yards—since Aki Iwai won here 12 months ago at 24-under par.
The average winning score at the Portland Classic over the last decade is 19.8-under par.
In other words, this is a shootout.
Many of these women have little trouble attacking the 6,541-yard, par-72 layout.
The par 5s remain the same, but the average par 3 has been lengthened by four yards and the average par 4 by seven.
Tournament officials have tried to add a little extra challenge to Columbia Edgewater, with the par-4 third, ninth and 15th holes showing the biggest differences.
The Portland region has also received very little rain.
CECC is five inches behind its normal rainfall total for the year, and the rain gauge reads 0.00 inches through the first 12 days of August.
Course Conditions, Weather and Wind
The forecast calls for beautiful weather in Portland.
Temperatures should begin each day in the low 60s before climbing into the 80s during each round.
No measurable rain is in the forecast, and a slight morning breeze should not cause much concern.
The wind is expected to pick up each afternoon, with gusts approaching 20 mph, but overall, the week ahead looks just about perfect for competitive golf.
Only 30 acres of fairway are spread across the 18 holes at Columbia Edgewater, making accuracy one of the course’s primary tests.
Evergreens create a hallway-like look to the fairway corridors. Seven holes bring water into play, and the course features 54 bunkers.
The green complexes are also small, averaging roughly 5,500 square feet.
West Coast Poa annua covers the putting surfaces, and CECC has historically been fairly predictable when it comes to the type of player who performs well here.
One other important course note: the routing has been flipped.
Players will start on the traditional 10th hole and finish their rounds on No. 9.
A scoring-length approach over water, the ninth green is well protected and should provide a reasonably entertaining finish.
There have been two repeat winners since 2002: Annika Sorenstam and Brooke Henderson.
Those two also give you an idea of the leaderboard diversity we’ve seen this century.
Since 2000, there have been five winners from the United States, four from South Korea, and champions representing seven other countries.
It’s not a major, and that’s a good thing.
The Portland Classic always seems to provide some great theater.
Enjoy the evening golf, and let’s get another outright across the finish line.
How Do You Win?
The conversation around selecting contenders at Columbia Edgewater has always started with one thing: accuracy.
Notice I said accuracy. I didn’t automatically add distance as the second qualifier.
That’s one of the unique aspects of Portland Classic week.
Players with length can win here. Players without it can win here, too.
If you keep the ball between the trees and bring a hot putter, you can climb the Portland leaderboard in a hurry.
Driving Accuracy
Let’s start off the tee and factor in the weather.
The recent dry conditions and this week’s forecast should favor a very specific type of player.
Considering the average winning score, these women are going to have to find ways to attack small, firm greens.
That starts with accuracy off the tee.
Driving accuracy is by far one of the most important statistics at CECC. We see it year after year—the players at the top of the leaderboard hit a ton of fairways.
If you can combine that accuracy with ball speed, even better.
But at the end of the day, contenders need to play their approaches from inside those evergreen corridors.
If you don’t remember this venue, CECC can feel almost claustrophobic from the tee.
The fairways are lined with thick pine trees. They are terrible places to miss—thick branches, low limbs and shallow root systems usually mean one thing: punch out and move on.
With firm conditions, these hallways will play even narrower.
Twelve of the 14 driving holes bend, meaning players need to find the center. Offline tee shots can easily run through the short grass and into trouble.
Approach Play
Why are the fairways so important?
For the same reason players will get extra bounce in the short grass, these firm green complexes will reject mediocre approaches.
CECC’s greens are compact, and getting that first bounce to grab will be vital.
Iron play is an advantage, but so is hitting a more lofted club into the putting surface.
Not only will the ball stop faster, but those shorter clubs should also produce better proximity numbers.
Approach play is my No. 1 skill this week, and for good reason.
With firm greens, spin control will separate the best approach players from the rest of the field.
Not many LPGA players launch towering approach shots from the fairway, so trajectory and spin control become paramount.
That’s another reason ball speed gives players an advantage.
Slower swing-speed players generally create lower ball flights.
I’m targeting strong ball strikers who are also trending in the right direction.
The average approach shot at CECC is not particularly long. Most of the field will hit a majority of their approaches from 120 to 160 yards.
Get closer to the green and stay in the fairway, and you’ll have the ability to attack from close range.
That makes a massive difference when you’re trying to stop the ball on firm surfaces.
And really, how else are you getting to 20-under par?
Go Low or Go Home
The top 12 players on the final leaderboard in 2025 finished at 15-under or better.
That means you can average nearly four-under par per round and barely crack the top 10.
The tournament record is 26-under, set in 2023, and since the event returned to CECC in 2013, seven of the 11 winners have reached at least 20-under par.
My cumulative scoring analysis does not include bogey avoidance or scrambling this week.
Make too many over-par scores, and you’ll be crossing the border into Canada on Saturday.
Instead, I started with Birdies or Better Percentage, par-4 scoring and par-5 scoring.
That gives us a strong baseline for identifying who can go low on a course like CECC.
Players likely need a birdie rate around 30% or better to win this week.
Very few players can consistently go that low.
Simply measuring scoring averages isn’t enough, either.
The secret sauce this week is rounds in the 60s.
Who goes low more often?
On tougher courses, some of these players struggle because they also make plenty of mistakes. But on a shootout venue, their ability to spike low rounds becomes extremely valuable.
When you need 25-plus sub-par scores over 72 holes, ceiling matters.
A Useful Comparison Course
Looking for interesting comp courses, I went back to the 2023 Canadian Open.
That event was played in Vancouver at Shaughnessy Golf & Country Club the week before the Portland Classic, and the leaderboards were surprisingly similar.
Another fairway-finder test with similar agronomy, I went through that final leaderboard looking for additional clues.
This pocket of events in the Pacific Northwest gives us a good idea of who tends to perform well in the region.
Not many pundits will make that connection, and I think it is a valuable comp.
Six players priced below +5000 this week finished inside the top 22 there and are firmly on my radar.
That was only three years ago, and their skill sets still apply.
Generally speaking, some of the LPGA’s best ball strikers aren’t elite with the putter.
So I also studied recent 2026 leaderboards looking for trending putters.
I found one or two of the better ball strikers on TOUR who are rolling it particularly well right now, and added them to the card.
Our LPGA eyes are locked in, and I’m going to be aggressive near the top of this betting board.
The field is extremely top-heavy from a talent perspective.
It will be a tight card, but one I think can give us another Sunday sweat—and hopefully a profitable Sunday evening.
LPGA Free Picks
Chizzy Iwai (+3900, DraftKings)
Chizzy Iwai finished third last year in Portland.
The terrific twin hits a ton of fairways while also possessing plenty of length.
That’s a huge advantage against a weaker LPGA field.
Iwai already has a win on her résumé, and it came at Mayakoba.
That’s an excellent comp for CECC—you cannot afford to miss fairways in Mexico.
I like Chizzy’s combination of accuracy and high-end scoring ability.
A couple of top-30 finishes in Europe also suggest her game is ready for this West Coast test.
Lauren Coughlin (+4000, DraftKings)
At some point in her career, Lauren Coughlin is going to win the Portland Classic.
Her game is a perfect fit for Columbia Edgewater Country Club.
Coughlin ranks inside the top eight on the LPGA in both Strokes Gained: Approach and fairway accuracy, which helps explain why she has back-to-back top-10 finishes in Portland.
Her first win came at the Canadian Open—and RTL had her.
Lauren clearly loves the agronomy in this part of the world, and after a T5 in Scotland followed by a T16 at the AIG Women’s Open, she looks ready to close this one out.
Ryu For Two!
For the second year in a row, we lost the Evian Championship in a playoff. This time it was two-time major champion Haeran Ryu who defeated Brooke Henderson on the first sudden-death hole. RTL readers will know Ryu is a favorite of ours dating back to her first win at the Walmart in 2023. We predicted that outright (+2500) and have published several betting cards featuring her since. The putter has always been what held her back. One of the top three ball strikers on Tour, if the positive vibes on the greens continue, Haeran has the ability to challenge Jeeno Thitikul and Nelly Korda for LPGA supremacy. From one winner to another, we head to Ayrshire, Scotland, and Dundonald Links for the ISPS HANDA Women’s Scottish Open. Lottie Woad is the defending champion at 21-under par. We cashed with Woad (+1800) last year, predicting her first career victory. On a side note, I love predicting a player’s first win. Those two winners in the opening paragraph emphasize our edge. Grabbing a player before they become a household name is one of the most rewarding parts of betting golf. Woad opened the Evian with rounds of 67 and 64 before a slightly over-par weekend dropped her to a T16 finish. That could actually help bettors, keeping her defending odds in a more favorable range. A great fit for this golf course, she and 29 of the top 50 players in the Rolex World Rankings will be looking to capture the LPGA’s next title. Like the men’s Scottish Open, this event is co-sanctioned with the Ladies European Tour. Browse the field and you’ll find plenty of unfamiliar names, giving us another opportunity to find value. I choose to look at Brooke Henderson’s runner-up finish as momentum. We won in Scotland two weeks ago with Tom Kim. Time to do it again.Pitch and Putt
For the fifth consecutive year and sixth overall, Dundonald Links will host the world’s best women for the Scottish Open. Set along the Firth of Clyde with Royal Troon as its famous neighbor, Dundonald offers everything you’d expect from links golf. Irvine Bay can get a little wild this time of year, so hopefully the players packed plenty of rain gear. Unlike what the men faced at Royal Birkdale, these players should see plenty of green across the property. One of the shorter courses on the LPGA schedule, Dundonald is a par 72 measuring just 6,538 yards. While that number may not sound particularly short, the average par 4 measures only 386 yards, and eight of the 10 par 4s play under 400 yards. You’ll need to make birdies. Since returning to Dundonald in 2022, the average winning score has been 18-under par. Ayaka Furue (2022) and Lottie Woad (2025) both reached 21-under. Based on this week’s forecast, I expect another winning score around 18-under.Course Conditions, Weather & Wind
The women won’t be seeing 80-degree temperatures in Ayrshire. Highs are expected to remain in the mid-60s, and with a west wind coming off the water, it will feel even cooler. The wind will shift between west-southwest and west-northwest throughout the week, making club selection a constant challenge as the routing changes direction repeatedly. Rain is expected to arrive on Friday, with gusts over 20 mph and intermittent showers sticking around through the weekend. Summer in Scotland. Dundonald sits on a relatively compact piece of seaside property, with all 18 holes weaving tightly together. The routing is excellent, but with 79 bunkers and several sharp doglegs, players who consistently keep the ball in play gain a significant advantage. Because so many par 4s are short, 13 of the 18 approach shots come from inside 150 yards. Even the par 5s are extremely scorable. Success here comes from taking advantage of scoring opportunities off the tee and stuffing wedges close. Looking back through the LPGA and LET leaderboards at Dundonald reveals a very clear blueprint for success. Lottie Woad’s three-shot victory over Hyo Joo Kim last season was especially impressive, as she was the only player to shoot all four rounds in the 60s.How To Win
The last four champions at Dundonald — Ayaka Furue, Celine Boutier, Lauren Coughlin, and Lottie Woad — all have one thing in common: accuracy. With 45 fairway bunkers, constantly playing from the sand is a recipe for failure. Furue and Coughlin, in particular, rank among the LPGA’s most accurate drivers despite being well below average in distance. The winners have averaged hitting roughly 80% of their fairways while arriving in strong form. Furue entered playing well, Boutier had just won the Evian, Coughlin won in Canada a few weeks earlier, and Woad finished T3 at the Evian before winning here. Hot players tend to stay hot in Scotland. Putting is equally important. The last four champions gained an average of 11 strokes on the field with the flatstick, while recent top-10 finishers averaged five strokes gained putting. The greens may appear generous, but between the wind and subtle contours, they play much smaller than they look. The recent champions averaged an incredible 82% greens in regulation, giving themselves endless birdie opportunities. Approach play is critical, especially from 75 to 175 yards. Players who consistently create chances inside 20 feet separate themselves quickly. Ayaka Furue won here averaging just 208 yards off the tee, proving distance simply isn’t required. Instead, dominating the short par 4s is the key. Recent winners averaged better than 3.8 strokes on the par 4s while taking advantage of the par 5s whenever possible. Scrambling also matters. Recent top-10 finishers have converted more than 60% of their scrambling opportunities, and creativity around the greens becomes even more valuable when the Scottish weather turns ugly. Thankfully, Dundonald was built for Scottish “summer.” The LPGA utilizes eight alternate tee boxes to adjust for changing weather conditions throughout the week. With back-to-back major championships now complete, finding the hottest players isn’t difficult. Blend recent form with the statistical profile we’ve outlined, and here’s this week’s outright betting card.LPGA Free Picks
Sei Young Kim (+1800 Caesars)
Sei Young Kim is a scoring machine who loves to hit driver. Ranked sixth on the LPGA in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Kim keeps the ball in play while ranking among the Tour’s best approach players. She’s also inside the top 25 in Putts per GIR, allowing her to capitalize on the birdie opportunities she creates. With a fifth-place finish at the U.S. Women’s Open, an eighth at the KPMG Women’s PGA Championship, and a third-place finish here last season, Kim enters Scotland with plenty of momentum.Aki Iwai (+2800 bet365)
The best overall ball striker at the Evian Championship, Aki Iwai had every opportunity to win in France. Iwai led the field tee-to-green, was excellent with her irons, and narrowly missed the playoff by a single shot after finishing third. Recent finishes of T7 at the Dow Championship, T19 at the KPMG Women’s PGA Championship, and third at the Evian show her game is trending in exactly the right direction. One of only four players to shoot all four rounds in the 60s at the Evian, Iwai also finished T16 at Dundonald last year and looks poised to contend again.Major season continues.
There are a ton of major championships on the professional golf calendar. Nine in the last 13 weeks, if you include the PGA TOUR Champions, PGA TOUR, and the LPGA.
So naturally, why not two more in the next two weeks?
The LPGA heads to beautiful Evian-les-Bains, France, for the Amundi Evian Championship. Golf purists will argue about whether the Evian should be considered a major. This is the 32nd year of the event and the 13th year with major championship status.
From a betting perspective, we don’t really care what you call it. A +5000 winner pays 50-1 whether it happens at the Evian, the ISCO, or the U.S. Open.
This week, 132 players will compete for $9.1 million and a major title. The top 65 and ties will play the weekend, with $1.365 million going to the winner.
Twenty-three of the top 25 players in the Rolex Women’s World Golf Rankings are in the field, ready to take on the Champions Course at Evian Resort alongside Lake Léman.
Last Year At Evian
RTL readers will remember this one.
Grace Kim played her final six holes in seven under par, then beat Jeeno Thitikul in a playoff. Thitikul was our outright pick last year, and her number is basically the same this time around.
One of the worst beats of 2025 came when Kim chipped in on the first playoff hole after hitting her second shot into the water.
Kim won. We lost. And the LPGA is back for another year in the Alps.
The Course: Mountain Golf
For the second week in a row, we have a par-71 scorecard.
The Champions Course has four par 5s, nine par 4s, and five par 3s. The official tournament card reads 6,479 yards for the 2026 edition, which is about 48 yards shorter than the 2025 setup.
Calling all approach artists.
With five par 3s, 28% of iron shots will come from the tee box. Recent top-10 leaderboards show that scoring on the par 3s is a serious edge at Evian.
Over the past decade, the average winning score is 15 under par. Since the event became the LPGA’s fifth major in 2013, there has not been a repeat winner.
Sorry, Grace Kim.
The Champions Course sits on a hillside at about 1,575 feet above sea level, which means the course plays roughly 3% shorter than the scorecard yardage. The longer holes tend to play downhill, like the 205-yard par-3 14th, while the short 331-yard 17th plays uphill.
Course Conditions, Weather, And Wind
The forecast looks warm in the Alps region of eastern France.
Daily highs are expected to reach the low 90s for each round, with very little breeze blowing between 6 and 10 mph. The players will be looking for relief while walking at altitude in that kind of heat.
The weekend could bring a little precipitation, but unfortunately, the rain is not expected to do much to lower the temperature.
The high temps are roughly 10 to 12 degrees warmer than the seasonal average.
Seventy-eight bunkers across the scorecard are not enough to slow this field down. The bigger challenges are sidehill lies, major championship pressure, and the closing stretch.
The greens are a Bentgrass-Poa mix, and water comes into play on three holes. Two of those penalty areas are on 16 and 18, so the final stretch can create plenty of drama.
The closing par 5 is familiar, and it has already proven it can flip the leaderboard in a hurry.
How To Win At Evian
Quick starts matter here.
Eleven of the last 12 winners have gone low in the opening round. Nine of them opened with rounds of 66 or better, and the group’s Round 1 scoring average is 65.8.
That makes sense. Opening a major with a lead does two things. It gives the player confidence, and it forces the rest of the field to play catch-up on a course where the leaders tend to stay in front.
Recent form also matters.
In 2022, Brooke Henderson won just three starts before taking home the Evian title. In 2024, Ayaka Furue had four top-10 finishes in five individual starts before her Evian win. Celine Boutier won the Evian in 2023, then followed it up with another win in Scotland the next week.
Grace Kim was a little harder to see coming, with just one top 10 in 2025 before winning at Evian.
But in general, Evian winners tend to show real form before getting the trophy.
Course history matters on the Champions Course, but we also want players competing at a high level over the last month. Especially because that stretch included two majors.
The Key Stats
The Evian is one big accuracy test.
If you’re going to cut this field down to a small list of possible winners, your picks better be sharp.
- Par-3 scoring is a huge separator. There are five par 3s on the card, and players are hitting those greens 71% of the time. The holes vary from 151 to 205 yards, and recent top-10 finishers have averaged 2.95 on the par 3s. That is why the outrights this week are all in the top 20% of the field in par-3 scoring.
- Par-4 success comes down to greens in regulation. Recent top-10 finishers have hit 77% of their greens in regulation overall. Last year, that number jumped to 79%. On the par 4s, the field hits GIRs at just 63%, so accurate par-4 scorers should have an edge.
- Par-5 scoring starts in the fairway. The field hits the fairway on the par 5s less than 60% of the time. The top contenders studied averaged 70% fairways hit across all 13 fairways. Length helps, but at Evian, being a bomber is not enough. Managing the par 5s from the short grass has proven to be more important.
- The putter still has to travel. Strokes gained putting sits just behind strokes gained approach in terms of leaderboard impact. The greens are smaller than average, so players who hit the center of the green and convert their chances should have the best formula.
The Champions Course offers plenty of scoring chances for players who can hit their targets.
Tee-to-green leaders have an advantage, but the winning score over the last five years is 16 under par. Recent top-10 finishers have averaged 20 sub-par scores over 72 holes.
So yes, you need to avoid mistakes. But at Evian, bogey avoidance is not quite as important as it is at the other majors. You need to make birdies.
Few consider the Evian worthy of major championship status. But whatever you think of the category, winning on the Champions Course takes a major skill set.
Seven of the last 12 Evian winners are multiple major winners. Only one American has won this event since it became a major.
Can Nelly Korda take down her third major of the season? She has a couple of top-10 finishes here, but none in the last two years.
This week, we are leaning into accurate ball strikers who have been scoring well in recent weeks. Those “weeks” just happen to include the U.S. Open and PGA Championship.
LPGA Free Picks
Hyo Joo Kim (+2500 FanDuel)
What did Hyo Joo Kim do during her week off?
She went to Korea and won.
Kim played in her second KLPGA event of the season, and she has now won both events she traveled home for this year.
She also has a strong history at Evian. Kim ranks eighth on the LPGA in strokes gained tee-to-green and first in putts per GIR.
That is a pretty lethal combination when you are coming in with form.
Jennifer Kupcho (+6600 BetMGM)
Jennifer Kupcho is another major winner who has been climbing leaderboards in big events this season.
She finished 12th at the Chevron and eighth at the U.S. Open. That U.S. Open skill set should translate well to the Champions Course.
Kupcho’s dominance off the tee has helped her build a strong Evian record, with finishes of 31st, 14th, 22nd, and 11th in her last four starts here.
Need a player to pop from deeper on the odds board?
Kupcho can do it.
US Open Prep.
It has been a weird run–up to the LPGA’s second major championship of the season. The world’s best women will be in Los Angeles at the famed Riviera Country Club for the United States Women’s Open. In preparation for the toughest test of the year, a field of 144 plan to compete in Galloway, New Jersey, in the ShopRite LPGA powered by Wakefern. Hopefully, Wakefern is a code word for private jet, because a Sunday finish and cross–country trip to California will take a toll on the top 65 and ties who play on Sunday. I mention Sunday, because the cut will not happen until Saturday night. The ShopRite is one of two 54-hole events remaining on the schedule. I know grocery prices have gone up, but throwing a three-day event on the shortest course the LPGA plays across the country from the US Open is a tough sell for ShopRite. Heck, they could have played this event last week and given the women more time to prepare for the national championship.
As expected, only five of the top 25 in the Rolex Rankings are competing. The betting favorite is Hye Jin Choi (+750). Please don’t take this the wrong way. Read The Line loves the ShopRite. We have picked the winner twice 2022 (Brooke Henderson) and 2023 (Ashleigh Buhai) in the last four years. In order to grab number three, we will continue to use our winning ShopRite strategy. It starts with having played Seaview’s Bay Course many times. Analyzing a course you have played and covered on-site is very helpful. We also grabbed those two wins before the LPGA published any strokes gained data. With the upgrade of their analytic offerings and local knowledge, it is time to grab number three at Seaview, and for the year.
Ross three-peat
The Seaview Resort is a historic golf venue. The majestic white hotel sits above 36-holes designed by two of the great architects of the golden age of golf courses. The William Flynn Pines Course heads inland behind the hotel, and Donald Ross’ Bay Course extends from the front porch out toward the sea. The Bay Course stretches to 6,263 yards and plays to a par 71. The shortest test on tour, the women will play eight (of 11) par 4s under 400 yards. Even the average par 5 is only 490 yards. This is one of the most fan-friendly events on any tour. You can see every hole from a couple of vantage points, and many of the fairways run parallel to one another. A couple of tee boxes were added last year to increase the scorecard length. The average winning score over the last decade is 14.4 under par (for three rounds). It’s an entertaining course to watch a tournament because the field can birdie or bogey any hole, depending on the conditions. The Bay Course is so exposed, and you can see it during the coverage.
Course Conditions, Weather, Wind
New Jersey witnessed a miserable Memorial Day weekend. It rained approximately 1-2″ inches across all different parts of the state. Much like the rest of the country, there was a drought. That’s no longer the case and although we have no rain in the forecast for Friday through Sunday, the golf course is going to play on the softer side. Temperatures are supposed to reach the low 70s, but the Bay Course is on the water and the real feel will be cooler. Thankfully, the wind prediction is around 10 mph for the three days. It will blow harder at Seaview than the web says, but that’s a decent starting point.
Even with 93 bunkers and 6,000 sq/ft greens (on average), the field will score. That’s the DNA of the Bay Course. The ShopRite has seen Hall of Famers and first-timers win because the layout is so short. If you take the top BoB% players on tour and tell them they need to average five birdies a day under normal conditions, 15ladies (minimum) can do that. I’m praying the forecast holds up. The weather can be a wildcard at the ShopRite. The skill set needed to win is specific for Seaview. If the forecast holds, we will contend and have a great chance to win. Our weekly coverage of the LPGA will be a great asset in assessing this field. With the US Open across the country in eight days, we don’t have a deep roster of usual suspects. The field in Mexico was deeper. Hopefully, the LPGA gets a handle on this schedule and starts to figure this out. The Mizuho had a great field, but that was three weeks ago. In the last six weeks, the LPGA has collected two strong events. It’s April and May! Fans complain about the two overseas tours to Asia, but we are in peak season, and nobody is playing.
Tight fairways, plenty of bunkers, and hopefully some wind will give these ladies a decent test. It’s a shoot-out at the Jersey Shore. Let’s find some women who can make 5+ birdies per round for three straight days.
How to win?
Breaking down the ShopRite is all about accuracy. The course is very short for modern LPGA standards. The tour continues to go here because the crowds give the ladies tremendous support, but under normal conditions, it is not a professional test. The lead skill we seek is approach play. Our two RTL winners, Henderson and Buhai, were in the top 5 on tour for iron play when they won. The average approach length is short at Seaview’s Bay Course. Five of the 11 par 4s are under 350 yards in length. Add in a very short par 3 on 17, and that’s six approaches (33%) where you must create close birdie chances. Remember, the winning score is 14 or 15 under par over three rounds. Our contenders are looking to fire five under par per day to keep pace. Those six short-range approaches are important. Since the LPGA lacks specific proximity data, how can we measure who separates on short par 4s? I like par 5 scoring at the ShopRite for this reason and a couple of others.
Players who can score on the 5s have a unique combination of skills. First, they score from close range. The modern professional golfer pushes the ball down to the green in two on a par 5. That third scoring shot comes from inside 100 yards. The best birdie makers on par 5s excel on this last approach. Six par 4s and all three par 5s will reward this skill set at the ShopRite. That’s half the holes these ladies will play each day. If you can birdie four or five of those nine, you are on pace to win. Those sub-par scores are the easiest to make on tour. The second skill on par 5s that applies on the Bay Course is your long iron or fairway wood approach in two. All three par 5s are reachable at Seaview, as the average length is 490 yards for the 5s.
Those three long-iron swings on the 5s also correlate to success on the par 3s. If the Bay Course challenges anything, it is par 3 scoring. Outside of the short seventeenth, the other par 3s are over 180 yards. Each one has a small, undulating green. As we have seen the past three weeks on tour, Ross was notorious for testing players on par 3s. Add up those three tee shots and the three long second swings on the par 5s, and that’s six more situations where players can separate. The final key par 5 player trait is making birdie or better. The scoring average of the last three top 10s at the ShopRite after three rounds is 4.5 on the 5s. The leaders are going low on these holes. It doesn’t matter what the weather is; this collection of par 5s is very scoreable. You must average two birdies per day on those three holes.
Looking through the recent top 10s from the 2022 to 2025 leaderboards, putting ranks second in strokes gained importance. That makes sense, because this is a three-day shoot-out. Wind–swept courses like this one are required to have relatively benign putting greens because the slopes will not hold balls in the wind. They do have shelves and sections, but when you get on the right plateau, the putting becomes very straightforward. The average green is small, 6,000 sq/ft. Hit the green, and you have a legitimate birdie chance. The defending champion, Jennifer Kupcho, gained nearly three strokes per round last year with her flatstick. Women will make putts, and since scoring is all that counts, you have to pay attention to those who are trending on the greens. Consider this as well, we just left TWO Ross–designed venues. Did Donald create all of those putting surfaces? No. But the Ross DNA is there, and it exists at the Bay Course too.
How much should we pay attention to short game and OTT play? Seaview might be the only course across the LPGA and PGA TOUR where the driver really does not matter. Can it help with the 5s? Yes. There are so many short holes at Seaview, you just need to hit your wedges (very) close. That’s the consideration for the short game as well. Sure, the ladies will miss some greens, but these surfaces are really windswept flat. A decent around the green player will do fine here. You don’t really need to worry about bunker play, etc., because the field is hitting approach shots from such close range. We’re not going to overthink this; we have predicted the winner here twice. Approach, approach, approach, pick the player who will hit 75% of her GIRs, make 18 sub-par scores in three rounds, and that’s the winner.
Will any part of this event help us handicap next week? Probably not. The USGA will have Riviera set up 500+ yards longer. The driver will play a huge role in the Pacific Palisades and mid- to long- iron play. Keep an eye on the putter at Seaview. We will want to know who is popping with the flatstick, but overall, this three-round event is as much of a one–off format as is the skill set needed. Enjoy the entertainment and the NJ crowds. Nine of the last 11 ShopRites were won by one stroke or in a playoff. After a miserable Memorial Day weekend, things are about to heat up down at the Jersey Shore.
LPGA – Free Picks
Celine Boutier (+1900 DraftKings)
The 2021 ShopRite winner, Celine Boutier has been on a tear with her iron game on the last two Donald Ross venues. Ninth place at the Mizuho and sixteenth at the Kroger, the former champ is locked in on approach. The difference with Boutierversus some of the other middle-tier prospects is her putter. When Celine is scoring and stacking up top 20 results, it is always a well-rounded resume. Third in the field for rounds recorded in the 60s, and fourth in round one scoring, watch for the French lady to get off to a fast start and take this title home with a wire-to-wire finish.
Jodi Ewart-Shadoff (+7200 DraftKings)
Following the LPGA intensely for four straight years, I can say with confidence, Jodi Ewart-Shadoff at 72-1 is a total misprice. The second-best approach player in the field has proven she can play Seaview. In her last five starts on the Bay Course, Ewart-Shadoff has three results in the top 12. One of those finishes was a third place in 2022. Jodi finished sixth in Mexico earlier in May, another accuracy-driven design. When the number one skill needed is iron play, put JES on the card. Sixth in par 5 scoring, there are other skills Shadoff has that will promote contending again at the shore.
